N.L. history professor watching Israel-Iran attacks closely as conflict intensifies

CBC

15 hours ago

A Newfoundland history professor says what happens in both Israel and Iran over the course of this weekend will shape the conflict between the two countries going forward.
Israel attacked Iran early Friday morning with a barrage of airstrikes that killed top military officials, nuclear scientists and hit about a hundred targets, including nuclear and missile sites, in what appears to be the most significant attack Iran has faced since the 1980s.
"I think we've learned once again that the limits to which Israel will go to protect what it views as its national security seem to be limitless," Justin Fantauzzo, a history professor studying the modern Middle East at Memorial University, told CBC News Friday.
"I don't think most people thought Israel was both maybe bold and reckless enough to escalate the conflict between Iran and Israel, to escalate this negotiation period about Iranian nuclear infrastructure and its enrichment of uranium, to this level."
Iran's state news agency reported Friday afternoon that Iran had fired hundreds of ballistic missiles toward Israel as part of a retaliation effort.
Leaders in Canada and around the world have condemned Israel's attack, calling for immediate de-escalation from both sides.
The conflict between the two countries is well documented, but Fantauzzo said there are a few key issues that have incited this chapter of conflict.
They centre around the development of Iran's nuclear weapons program, which Fantauzzo said Israel views as an existential crisis.
Negotiations between Iran and the United States to find a middle ground have failed, while the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) accused Iran on Thursday of breaching non-proliferation obligations by appearing to enrich uranium past the point of weapons-grade.
"Even going back to 2023, some IAEA inspectors had found particles, radiation particles, in certain nuclear facilities in Iran that were above 80 per cent, about 83 per cent enriched uranium," Fantauzzo said. "Hiroshima, in 1945, that bomb was 80 per cent enriched uranium. And some IAEA inspectors have found evidence of enriched uranium that exceeds that."
Fantauzzo said questions also remain over Israel's true objective behind the missile attacks — be it destroying nuclear missile sets or creating volatility to prompt a regime change — and the role the United States would play in continued efforts to resume negotiations.
He said there are two main items he'll be watching for as the conflict continues.
"The first is, as reports come out about what Israel has struck, how much damage did they actually do to Iran's nuclear infrastructure.… Over the last couple of hours, Israel has struck more nuclear facilities and more sites," Fantuazzo said.
"[Also], what is the reaction from not only the Islamic regime in Teheran, the government, but the Iranian people as well. Is it another ballistic missile strike, is it intense political opposition, is it regime change from within? I mean, what Iran does will obviously impact Israel's next step as well."