Global Perspective: Expectations rising for African economic growth, democratization
From Aug. 20 to 22, the 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD 9) will be held in Yokohama south of the Tokyo. Since TICAD's first gathering in 1993, Japan has been jointly organizing this conference with the United Nations, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the World Bank, and the African Union Commission (AUC). TICAD 9 unfolds as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the humanitarian crises and the danger of war in the Middle East raise concerns about the future of the international order. In such a world situation, what is the significance of thinking about Africa's development? What are Africa's challenges and possibilities?
TICAD in August
Africa is not a small region that can be described in short. On a Mercator projection world map, which looks small around the equator, Africa does not look so vast. However, the actual area is 30.1 million square kilometers, which is not much different from all of Asia, which is 31.96 million square kilometers. Africa is larger than North America, South America, and Europe, respectively.
This comparison is based on the regional classification of the United Nations, in which Asia spans China, India, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, but not Russia. If it is difficult to talk about such a diverse Asia in one go, similar difficulties exist for Africa.
Among African countries, Nigeria has the largest population of about 220 million, while the island nation of Seychelles has just 120,000 people or so. Algeria, the largest in area, is 5,178 times larger than the smallest Seychelles. Africa is also diverse in terms of climate, with rainforests and deserts, as well as savannah and Mediterranean climates. Some countries stand high above sea level -- Uganda and Rwanda are just below the equator or south of it, but the climate is cool.
Poverty, conflict challenging
With such diversity in mind, I would like to consider the economic and political challenges facing Africa.
The first issue is the seriousness of poverty. Although the main purpose of the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to reduce poverty, about 30% of people in Africa are estimated to live in extreme poverty (living on less than $2.15 a day). The situation has improved from 2000 when the figure was 47%, but there remains a large gap with the global average of about 10%.
The second is the threat to human security due to armed conflicts and political crises. The Tigre conflict in Ethiopia, which broke out in 2020 and has since seen a rise in the number of casualties, reached a peaceful settlement in November 2022, but unstable areas still remain in the east African country. In Sudan on April 23 of this year, aA civil war broke out in Sudan in April, 2023, and the fighting continues to date. Coups have occurred in Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, and there has been no transfer of power to the civilian government.
The armed conflict involving Rwanda continued in the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaire), but a peace agreement was signed on June 27 this year. In South Sudan, which became independent in 2011, internal forces continued fighting until they gave agreed on seeking peace but elections have not been held so far and the situation remains fluid. In addition, Somalia, northern Nigeria, Mali and Burkina Fado, among other countries, face terrorist activities by Islamic extremists.
While poverty and armed conflict continue, positive movements are seen in a significant number of countries. The first instance is economic growth. According to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) "World Economic Outlook" released in April this year, the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the entire world economy is estimated to grow by 2.785% in 2025. In Africa, 41 countries are expected to grow above the global average.
There are also political improvements. In some countries, democracy is taking root. According to Sweden's V-Dem Institute, which studies democracy globally, 15 African countries were classified as "democracies" in 2024, from 13 in 2000. The number increased even though it is modest. In addition to Senegal and Ghana in West Africa, it is impressive that many countries in Southern Africa, South Africa, Lesotho, Namibia, Botswana, Zambia in southern Africa, and Malawi, which is one of the poorest countries in terms of per capita income, have established maintained stable democracy.
The advantage of young people
Needless to say, the common characteristics of African countries are the momentum of population growth and the large number of young people. This is a factor that, if not managed well, can lead to poverty and conflict. However, if we can take advantage of the large young population, we can promote economic growth which can lead to political democratization.
What is attracting attention is the increasing number of young African businessmen working on startups that creatively utilize information and communication technology (ICT) and other technologies to create new industries. Some of them have studied in Japan and started new businesses in Africa, and they have the potential of co-creating innovation through interaction with Japan entrepreneurs.
I believe that Africa, with its diversity, is a region where the challenges and expectations of the world as a whole are concentrated. Japan has been addressing Africa's challenges and possibilities for more than 30 years through TICAD. Through development cooperation, Tokyo has made useful contributions to local communities in the areas of agriculture, public health, safe water supply, and education, as a support for human security. Improving the income of smallholder farmers and increasing rice production are projects unique to Japan has been promting in many African countries. Some countries, including Egypt, are trying to introduce Japan-style primary education.
Africa is Japan's western partner in the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy. We must also steadily advance the construction of infrastructure to strengthen the overall connectivity of the Indo-Pacific. There is no continent with as many landlocked countries as Africa. Japan has contributed to the construction of corridors from the coast to the inland there, but cooperation should be continued further.
It is very encouraging that private companies are increasingly interested in Africa. I think that by co-creating with young African power, we can further expand Africa's potential. People-to-people exchange is the foundation of co-creation. The activities of the Overseas Cooperation Volunteers of Japan are highly regarded in African countries, and after returning to Japan, the members are also active in regional revitalization in various parts of Japan. The ABE initiative and other invitations to international students from Africa to Japan have also been effective, connecting Japanese private companies and Africa. It is hoped that exchanges will be further expanded, including among young people in Japan.
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The Diplomat
2 hours ago
- The Diplomat
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'Where will we go? We have no house, no work, no safety in Afghanistan. We built our lives here.' Afghan refugee children at Girdi Jungle refugee camp in Pakistan's Chagai district collect drinking water from a supply point set up by an NGO, July 3, 2025. Every day before dawn, 38‑year‑old Latifa Bibi slips out of her tent. Her three daughters follow. First, she joins the line for water. Next, she moves to the food distribution point. By midday, she scrubs tents for a few rupees. Latifa lives in Chagai, the westernmost district of Pakistan's insurgency-wracked Balochistan province. The district borders both Iran and Afghanistan. She once lived in Kandahar, Afghanistan, but fled to Pakistan in 1987 after her husband's death. 'We had a home in Kandahar,' she whispered over a generator's hum. 'Now look at us, no home, no papers, no future.' In October 2023, the Pakistani government announced the 'Illegal Foreigners' Repatriation Plan,' which targeted unregistered Afghans, those with Afghan Citizen Cards (ACC), and finally those holding Proof of Registration (PoR) cards, for deportation. On June 30, PoR cards, the only shield for Afghan refugees living in Pakistan, expired. And with that, Pakistan is deporting PoR holders. Latifa's future, like hundreds of thousands of other PoR holders in Pakistan, has been rendered uncertain as a result. 1.3 million Afghans hold PoR cards; 65 percent of them are under the age of 24. Another 813,000 have ACCs, while 700,000 more people live undocumented. Most are women and children. Since the cards expired, aid workers report a 60 percent cut in food, water, and health services. Patrols and raids continue, despite an interim order halting 'harassment or adverse action' against PoR holders, until extensions are decided. When Latifa first learned that the Pakistani government might send her back, a cold panic gripped her. 'Where will we go? We have no house, no work, no safety in Afghanistan. We built our lives here,' she said, her voice tight with anxiety. That fear stalks her every moment. She hasn't slept peacefully since the cards expired. 'I lie awake, wondering what tomorrow brings. If they send us away, where will my children go? That thought steals my sleep.' On July 31, the Ministry of Interior approved the third phase of its 'Illegal Foreigners' Repatriation Plan,' instructing authorities to begin deporting undocumented Afghans and PoR-card holders immediately. The UNHCR, the United Nations' refugee agency, has voiced 'deep concern and regret' over the move, warning that without clear safeguards or sustainable reintegration support, returns cannot meet basic standards of voluntariness or dignity. The UNHCR says it is in active dialogue with Islamabad to secure protective measures for affected families. Meanwhile, in late July, Pakistan's human‐rights watchdog in Quetta formally warned that law enforcement agencies had summoned camp elders from Gardi Jungle, Laji Karez, and Posti, and ordered them to evacuate by July 31, or forfeit their rights, despite refugees asking for six- to twelve-month grace periods to wind down homes and livelihoods. Latifa fears most for her daughters' future. 'If they force us back, their education stops. Their dignity vanishes. No mother can bear that,' she said. Her eyes filled with tears. She paused, then added quietly: 'Sometimes I feel the world has forgotten us. Nobody hears our voice or sees our suffering. But a small hope remains that someone will show mercy.' Latifa's 17‑year‑old daughter should be in secondary school. Instead, she sits on a battered bench in a school that goes only up to grade three. Books lie untouched. At dusk, police patrols thread through tent alleys. Their jeep headlights slice the gloom. They drag families away for not holding the necessary documents. 'My daughters tremble when those jeeps approach,' Latifa said, adding that 'they wake up screaming.' Across the camp, 29‑year‑old Amina warmed tea over a tiny fire. Her five children huddled close. Her youngest asked her, 'Am I Pakistani or Afghan?' Amina couldn't answer. The sun sits heavy above Chagai's dusty plains, where thin canvas and plastic tents barely shield families from heat reaching 47 degrees Celsius. A single tanker delivers water once a day. Its precious cargo is gone in minutes. Over the past month, dust storms have blotted out the sun. Dust settles on blankets, cooking pots, and even on children's sunburned skin. Children cough from the grit. Heat-related illnesses spike. Yet families cling to routines; a handful gather at dawn for prayer under a tarp. Others play tag between tents, laughter echoing against dry earth. A small library, cobbled from donated books, offers sanctuary. Volunteer teachers sketch letters on scrap boards, coaxing reluctant readers to learn. A women's self‑help group meets under a tarp, where sewing and literacy classes are held. The sewing classes began with scrap cloth and a few hopeful mothers. Now the group feeds resilience, even if it can't register or secure funds. Qaiser Khan Afridi, the UNHCR's spokesperson in Pakistan, has called for the extension of PoR cards. 'Families here have lived on this soil for decades,' he told The Diplomat. 'Their return must be voluntary, safe, dignified, and respectful.' He warned that Afghanistan still faces a dire humanitarian crisis and rampant rights abuses. Pakistan has hosted refugees since 1979. Since it is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention or its 1967 Protocol, its treatment of refugees relies on ad hoc policies and goodwill. 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Yomiuri Shimbun
15 hours ago
- Yomiuri Shimbun
Rwanda Reached Deal with US to Take in up to 250 Migrants, Government Says
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