Can Elon Musk's ‘America Party' work?

Telegraph

3 days ago

After three weeks of relative silence, Elon Musk returned to the spotlight with a political moonshot.
Pointing his rockets at the 'one big, beautiful bill' and its loyal lawmakers, Mr Musk threatened to blow up the two-party US system by doing what few have dared. Launch one of his own.
'If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day,' he wrote in a string of firebrand posts on Monday.
'Our country needs an alternative to the Democrat-Republican uni-party so that the people actually have a VOICE.'
By Monday evening, the tech billionaire was suggesting specific action, vowing to tank congressmen who dared vote for the flagship tax and spend bill by funding their political rivals.
In any event, it appears to have been just a threat.
Yet Mr Musk's ambition for a new 'America Party' is the latest example of what many view as the biggest threat to Donald Trump's second term; the tech billionaire himself.
His incredible wealth, time inside the West Wing and influence will help him recruit supporters. Perhaps all he is missing is the charm of Mr Trump.
The States' winner-takes-all style elections make it almost impossible for those outside of the two main American parties: Republicans and Democrats.
Yet there is, it seems, some appetite for a third party. In a poll on his X account, Mr Musk asked if it was time to create a party 'that actually represents the 80 per cent in the middle'.
A total of 5.6 million people voted, with 80.4 per cent responding 'yes'. It is a result repeatedly cited by the tech billionaire as evidence that most Americans want a political alternative.
Is it time to create a new political party in America that actually represents the 80% in the middle?
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 5, 2025
'The key question is, would you actually vote for such a third party?' John Mark Hansen, the Charles L Hutchinson distinguished service professor in the department of political science at the University of Chicago, said.
'And typically, a vote for a third party is a wasted vote, so people don't vote for third parties.
'If success is actually creating a party that is durable, that is around for more than one election cycle and that has candidates running on its line... then this doesn't have much of a chance.'
There are questions over whether Mr Musk's influence would have the durability to last for more than one election cycle.
Still, never before has someone with the unique combination of star power and resources taken interest in giving the two-party duopoly a run for its money.
Musk could self-finance campaign
With a net worth of $409.8 billion (£298.4 billion), Mr Musk has the means to self-finance a campaign on a scale never seen before.
By the end of Trump's presidential campaign, Mr Musk had ploughed $277 million into the party, making him their largest donor.
With plenty of change spare, he had a go at influencing Wisconsin's supreme court election. With his other affiliated groups, he spent over $20 million in the hopes of getting a return on his investment.
But despite the cash injection, his preferred candidate still lost.
Mr Musk could afford nationwide advertising, tech-savvy targeted marketing and some of the brightest political strategist money can buy. Such financial might means he wouldn't be dependent on traditional donors, a selling point for his 'anti-establishment' campaign.
Then there is his popularity. Just under half of American adults (42 per cent) say they have a favourable view of Mr Musk, according to a Pew Research Centre survey earlier this year.
Perhaps more importantly, roughly 73 per cent of Republicans (including a staggering 84 per cent of conservative Republicans) view him favourably.
His spectacular fallout with the president, in which he accused Mr Trump of being in the Epstein files, did little to dent the Tesla boss's popularity inside the Maga base either.
Third party could swing close election
And so with his maverick image, he has the potential to attract voters fed up with the establishment. But with a narrow set of political opinions, he stands little chance of success.
'A lot of Americans will tell you they want a third party, and that they are dissatisfied with both Democrats and Republicans,' Peter Loge, the director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at the George Washington University told The Telegraph.
'A lot of people agree. What they disagree about is what that should look like. The problem is, you can't have a political party representing a whole nation of people who just agree with you.'
While a third party is unlikely to have any impact by way of seats, its real damage to Mr Trump and the Republicans will be by syphoning away a chunk of their voters.
Even a small third-party vote can swing a close election. In 2000, Ralph Nader, under the green party won only 2.7 per cent of the vote. Yet his few millions in Florida and other swing states is credited to tipping the election in favour of George W Bush.
It is a scenario that could prove devastating to the Republicans who face tight races in the midterms next year.
While a third party stands little chance of success Mr Musk can really cause harm to Mr Trump by primarying Republicans and running campaigns.
Specific action, like funding individual lawmakers and discrediting opponents with attack ads, is Mr Musk's best chance of vengeance.
It is a move he has floated already, announcing he would be backing Republican Kentucky GOP Congressman Thomas Massie, a dissenter of Mr Trump's bill, in his re-election bid next year.
'I do think probably the most effective way to gum up the works would be to sponsor independent candidates,' Mr Hansen added.
'If there's someone there who could syphon votes away [in swing seats] even in protest from the Republican candidate, Mr Musk could get his revenge.'