Ireland extremely unlikely to hit offshore energy targets by 2032
There is just a 10% chance Ireland's offshore energy targets for 2030 will be hit by 2032, and it's 'plausible' there will be no new developments by the start of the next decade, Extra.ie can reveal.
The warning is contained in an internal briefing document for the then-environment minister Eamon Ryan last December, prior to him being replaced by Darragh O'Brien a month later.
The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council has said Ireland could face fines of between €8 billion and € 26 billion for failing to meet its emissions targets by 2030. That is potentially twice as much as the State received after the € 13 billion Apple tax windfall in 2024. Darragh O'Brien. Pic: Sasko Lazarov/RollingNews.ie
As other countries in the EU are struggling to meet their goals, Ireland will be more exposed to fines, as there will be fewer options to purchase energy credits from countries that are exceeding their targets.
It comes as the Government's climate action ambition was dealt a blow last week after plans to build 30 turbines off the coasts of counties Clare and Galway were abandoned.
The project received 177 objections, including one from comedian and TV host Tommy Tiernan, who did so 'on the grounds of desecration of that area of natural beauty'.
The internal documents obtained by Extra.ie, under the Freedom of Information Act, were prepared for Mr Ryan and contain a summary of expert opinions compiled as part of the Decarbonised Electricity System Study by the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland. Tommy Tiernan. Pic: RTÉ
It surveyed 30 experts and said offshore development 'is considered very uncertain over both the long and short terms', with a 'best guess' of 1.4 gigawatts (GW) deployed by 2030 and 8.8 GW deployed by 2040.
'There is a 10% chance Ireland could reach the 5GW 2030 target by 2032,' the briefing note said.
Onshore wind has proven to be more reliable, with the experts saying it has 'comparatively more certainty than offshore wind and solar', with a best guess of 7.1 GW by 2030. However, the experts are still doubtful that the 2030 targets in this area will be hit.
'There is a 10% chance Ireland could reach the 9 GW 2030 target by 2031,' the officials wrote. Offshore Wind Turbines (Stock Image). Pic: Shutterstock
They describe solar power as having 'more certainty than offshore wind, but less than onshore' with a best guess of 6.3 GW by 2030 and 11.6 GW by 2040.
'There is a 10% chance Ireland could reach the 8 GW 2030 target by 2030. However, experts expect five-fold growth, from about 2.5 GW in 2025 to 11.6 GW in 2040,' they wrote.
The experts recommended short-term measures (up to 2027) that 'must be implemented to achieve the high-growth forecasts for renewables', such as changes to planning and maritime laws.
Some of these are already being done. For example, Mr O'Brien got Cabinet approval for a national Designated Maritime Area Plan (DMAP) for offshore energy, recommended in the plan, that will designate sites capable of delivering at least 15 GW by 2040. Darragh O'Brien. Pic: Sam Boal/RollingNews.ie
The Government is also introducing changes to planning legislation to impose time limits on decisions for 'national strategic infrastructure' and to restrict who can take judicial reviews.
The experts urged the Government to host another Offshore Renewable Electricity Support Scheme to boost capacity at An Bord Pleanála and the National Parks and Wildlife Service for processing applications. They also warned against stricter wind farm rules, particularly around noise.
The experts warned that reliance on green hydrogen as a fuel for electricity generation before 2040 is considered a 'high-risk strategy'.
Speaking on Newstalk, Taoiseach Micheál Martin said there needs to be a 'relentless' focus on progressing wind farms and that local councils had blocked progress for too long. Micheál Martin. Pic: Michael Chester
'There's been moves where development plans were sent out, mainly for political reasons, to say: 'We don't want any of this.' And they're constructed in such a way so there can never be a wind farm again,' he said.
Public Expenditure Minister Jack Chambers echoed this last week, announcing a new Infrastructure Division and taskforce to speed up delivery. He warned that the public good was being 'undermined by people trying to frustrate progress'.
Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, the chairman of the Energy and Climate Action Committee at the Irish Academy of Engineering, Eamonn O'Reilly, warned we will not meet our targets out to 2050.
He said the commitment in the Climate Action Plan 2021 to be carbon neutral in 2050 is 'wishful thinking', as it is planning on the basis of technology that 'doesn't exist' yet.
He said Mr O'Brien was right to seek to advance floating offshore energy, despite it being 'unproven', but added that targets need to be 'realistic'.
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