New study raises concerns over troubling phenomenon pushing amphibian species to their limits: 'Will likely exceed our projections'
Planet-warming pollution isn't a future threat to amphibians — it's a problem impacting their survival right now. A recent study published in Nature found that the planet has already heated so much that around 2% of amphibian species are already subject to overheating events in their native homes. If warming remains unchecked, researchers say that number could rise to 7.5% of species pushed past their heat-tolerance limits by the end of the century.
As detailed in the study, amphibians — including frogs and salamanders — rely on their environment to regulate their body temperature. If it gets too hot, they experience impacts or simply can't survive — as Mongabay summarized. Heat-trapping pollution has already made the globe unbearable for some species.
"We found that currently, about 100 species [104 out of 5,203 studied] are likely experiencing overheating events right now, where environmental temperatures exceed their physiological heat limits," study co-author Alex Gunderson, an ecologist at Tulane University, told Mongabay.
To evaluate the climate's impact on amphibians, the researchers used experiment-based heat tolerance data for 524 species and statistical estimates for more than 5,000 species. Altogether, their research covered about 60% of all known amphibian species.
They pinpointed global "hotspots" where many amphibians are already overheating, including the southeastern U.S., northern Australia, and the Amazon Rainforest, as Mongabay detailed. However, it's not just geography that matters. Where an amphibian lives within its habitat also plays a role. The study found that aquatic species are generally safest from the effects of planet-warming pollution, while ground-dwelling species face the highest risk of overheating.
The study also identified a dangerous tipping point for amphibians — between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) of planetary warming over preindustrial levels. Gunderson told Mongabay that as the average temperature gets closer to that range, the number of days with heat beyond what amphibians can handle starts to significantly climb.
Alarmingly, the United Nations Environment Programme estimated in late 2023 that the planet was on track for about 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100 without additional reductions in planet-warming pollution.
The researchers indicated to Mongabay that their estimates are on the conservative side since they assumed all amphibians can find shade.
"Therefore, the impacts of global warming will likely exceed our projections," lead author Patrice Pottier, a researcher at the University of New South Wales, told the news outlet.
Amphibians are an essential part of their ecosystems, so any threat to their well-being has the potential to disrupt an area's entire food web — as well as have impacts on humans.
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A decline in amphibian populations can have negative human health impacts. Amphibians eat insects that transmit diseases, including mosquitoes. Mongabay cited a 2020 study that showed that the decline of amphibian species in Central America was linked to an increase in malaria.
Amphibians help control insect populations in their ecosystems, cycle nutrients, and serve as food for many other species. Their decline is a direct trigger for broader environmental consequences.
"They're sort of the potato chips of the forest in many of these ecosystems where they serve as food for birds and bats and mammals and fish," Gunderson told Mongabay.
One scientist unaffiliated with the study told Mongabay that research of this kind is often used to help decide where to focus conservation work by identifying at-risk species and triaging where the greatest impact can be made.
In the study, the researchers called for increased conservation efforts to protect amphibian habitats worldwide, especially focused on maintaining dense vegetation for shade and abundant water for hydration.
"If you provide amphibians with enough water and enough shade, a lot of them can survive extreme heat events," Pottier told Mongabay. "We must protect and restore the environments that allow them to regulate their body temperature."
Along with conservation efforts, scientists are employing captive breeding and, in some cases, assisted migration to help vulnerable species survive. In the end, however, none of that will be enough without bigger action to address the root cause — pollution itself.
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