Japan travel bookings drop amid earthquake fears sparked by manga prediction
Travel bookings to Japan from major Asian markets have significantly decreased before the peak summer period, influenced by earthquake predictions from a manga novel.
Social media discussions have sparked concerns among travellers regarding manga artist Ryo Tatsuki's forecast of a catastrophic earthquake and subsequent tsunami in Japan.
Tatsuki, credited by some for predicting the 2011 earthquake, specified July 2025 as the date in a graphic novel published in 1999, The Strait Times reported.
The manga's 2021 republication, featuring additional material, has reignited discussions about the earthquake prediction on social media platforms, with warning videos and posts about Japan travel gaining substantial viewership.
Despite scientific consensus that precise earthquake timing cannot be determined, flight reservations from Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong have declined since April.
Hong Kong bookings have decreased by 50 per cent compared to the previous year, according to ForwardKeys data analysed by Bloomberg Intelligence. Late June to early July arrivals from Hong Kong have reduced by up to 83 per cent.
Greater Bay Airlines and Hong Kong Airlines reduced their Japan flights in May as authorities urged people to disregard the speculation.
Miyagi prefecture's governor, Yoshihiro Murai, addressed tourism impacts in April, requesting people to dismiss the speculation.
The Japan Meteorological Agency emphasised that current scientific methods cannot accurately predict earthquakes.
Japan's position in the Ring of Fire, a Pacific Ocean seismic zone, makes it particularly susceptible to earthquakes. Its most recent significant earthquake occurred in 2011, resulting in a tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear incident.
Despite these concerns, overall tourism to Japan remains strong, with April recording 3.9 million international visitors, attracted by the favourable exchange rate.
"The earthquake speculation is affecting Japan tourism and will temporarily slow growth," stated Eric Zhu, Bloomberg Intelligence's aviation analyst.
"Travellers are choosing cautiously, considering other regional short-haul destinations."
He anticipates airlines will experience difficulties in coming months, based on booking trends and expected passenger numbers.
Tatsuki's work, "The Future I Saw", describes a dream where a tsunami affects Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Philippines. A prominent Hong Kong fengshui master's warnings have further amplified these concerns.
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