Predicting Michigan State and every other Big Ten team's record in 2025

USA Today

2 days ago

It's that time of the year when anyone and everyone has thoughts on how the college football season will play out -- so why would I be any different?
I'm back again this year with my annual game-by-game predictions for all of the Big Ten teams, where I'm projecting a better fall for our Spartans this year. Michigan State comes into this season looking to snap a three-year bowl drought, and I'm pretty confident that will happen with my predictions for the Spartans this fall.
Included in this year's predictions are...
So without further ado, here are my Big Ten football predictions for the upcoming 2025 season:
Illinois
Record: 9-3 (6-3 in Big Ten)
Wins: Western Illinois, at Duke, Western Michigan, at Indiana, USC, at Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland and Northwestern
Losses: Ohio State, at Washington and at Wisconsin
Thoughts: Like many looking for a trendy pick, I'm pretty high on the Fighting Illini entering the 2025 season. They return a ton of talent from a team that won 10 games last season, and most notably have a veteran quarterback in Luke Altmyer and strong offensive line. I have Illinois getting off to a fast start of 6-0 before sputtering during the back half of the year, with an upset at Wisconsin derailing their goal of reaching the College Football Playoff.
Indiana
Record: 7-5 (4-5 in Big Ten)
Wins: Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, Indiana State, UCLA, at Maryland, Wisconsin and at Purdue
Losses: Illinois, at Iowa, at Oregon, Michigan State and at Penn State
Thoughts: Indiana was the team that shocked the system last year by going 11-1 and reaching the College Football Playoff. This year, though, I'm not expecting the same kind of success with a more difficult slate of games ahead for the Hoosiers. Indiana should still be a lock to go bowling, but I anticipate a tough four game stretch of Illinois, at Iowa, at Oregon and Michigan State to end any dreams of back-to-back College Football Playoff trips for Curt Cignetti.
Iowa
Record: 7-5 (5-4 in Big Ten)
Wins: UAlbany, UMass, at Rutgers, Indiana, Minnesota, Oregon and Michigan State
Losses: at Iowa State, at Wisconsin, Penn State, at USC and at Nebraska
Thoughts: Can we finally trust the Hawkeyes' offense led by South Dakota State transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski? He's ultimately the difference maker on whether or not Iowa is a College Football Playoff contender or just another solid team from the Big Ten. I'm in the mindset of let's wait and see before getting too excited, so I have Iowa finishing more near their floor than ceiling, but wouldn't be surprised at all if they end up hitting double-digit wins this season.
Maryland
Record: 4-8 (1-8 in Big Ten)
Wins: Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois, Towson and Washington
Losses: at Wisconsin, Nebraska, at UCLA, Indiana, at Rutgers, at Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State (neutral site)
Thoughts: It feels like this could be the season that things truly go south for the Terps and we see the end of the Mike Locksley era at Maryland. The Terps benefit from arguably the easiest schedule in the conference, but I anticipate a major slide when Maryland hits the thick of conference play. I have the Terps losing their final seven games, with a chance that Locksley is already gone by the time the Terps come to Ford Field for the season finale against Michigan State.
Michigan
Record: 8-4 (6-3 in Big Ten)
Wins: New Mexico, Central Michigan, at Nebraska, Wisconsin, Washington, Purdue, at Northwestern and at Maryland
Losses: at Oklahoma, at USC, at Michigan State and Ohio State
Thoughts: Michigan is maybe one of the hardest teams to forecast for the upcoming season, as the ceiling could be national championship contender while the floor could be struggling to reach bowl eligibility. The defense should still be stellar for the Wolverines and it'll ultimately come down to how quickly can five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood come around as the expected starter. I think they'll take some early season lumps due to his inexperience but could be dangerous by the end of the season -- something Ryan Day and Ohio State doesn't want to hear.
Minnesota
Record: 7-5 (4-5 in Big Ten)
Wins: Buffalo, Northwestern State, at Cal, Rutgers, Purdue, Michigan State and Wisconsin
Losses: at Ohio State, Nebraska, at Iowa, at Oregon and at Northwestern
Thoughts: Minnesota feels like they're going to be Minnesota again this year. I understand that's not terribly descriptive but it is a credit to the consistency the Golden Gophers have established under P.J. Fleck. I believe a new young quarterback in Drake Lindsey will be a limitation for Minnesota to contend for double-digit wins, but I am very confident they'll make a bowl game with relative ease.
Nebraska
Record: 8-4 (5-4 in Big Ten)
Wins: Cincinnati, Akron, Houston Christian, Michigan State, at Maryland, at Minnesota, Northwestern and Iowa
Losses: Michigan, USC, at UCLA and at Penn State
Thoughts: Can Nebraska break through in 2025? They're a trendy dark horse pick to reach the College Football Playoff out of the Big Ten but I'm not quite that high on them just yet. I have the Cornhuskers getting off to a great start of 7-1 before they drop three straight late in the year to end any hope of reaching the playoff.
Northwestern
Record: 3-9 (1-8 in Big Ten)
Wins: Western Illinois, Louisiana Monroe and Minnesota
Losses: at Tulane, Oregon, UCLA, at Penn State, Purdue, at Nebraska, at USC, Michigan and at Illinois
Thoughts: The David Braun magic from 2023 is gone -- or at least that's my prediction. The Wildcats' roster and tough schedule this season (which includes a road trip to Tulane to open the season) has me expecting another rough season for Northwestern. I'm not sure Northwestern will be ready to move on from Braun quite yet, but I would expect him to be on the hot seat entering next season.
Ohio State
Record: 11-1 (9-0 in Big Ten)
Wins: Grambling State, Ohio, at Washington, Minnesota, at Illinois, at Wisconsin, Penn State, at Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers and at Michigan
Losses: Texas
Thoughts: Not much of a hot take to say Ohio State is going to once again be really good this year, but opening the season with a home loss to Texas is at least a little bit spicy. The early season defeat to the Longhorns is the only loss I have on the schedule for Ohio State as they will get back to Indy for the Big Ten Championship Game for the first time since 2020.
Oregon
Record: 10-2 (7-2 in Big Ten)
Wins: Montana State, Oklahoma State, at Northwestern, Oregon State, Indiana, at Rutgers, Wisconsin, Minnesota, USC and at Washington
Losses: at Penn State and at Iowa
Thoughts: Oregon was the team to beat in the Big Ten last year, going 13-0 with a Big Ten title in their first year in the league. The Ducks now will look to defend their crown with a new quarterback in Dante Moore and a number of new key contributors expected across the board. I'm anticipating the Ducks will take a slight step back this year but still good enough to find their way back into the College Football Playoff.
Penn State
Record: 10-2 (7-2 in Big Ten)
Wins: Nevada, Florida International, Villanova, Oregon, Northwestern, at Iowa, Indiana, at Michigan State, Nebraska and at Rutgers
Losses: at UCLA and at Ohio State
Thoughts: Expectations have never been higher for Penn State under James Franklin, but can they live up to the hype? I'm on the fence because I need to see it before I can believe it when it comes to beating Ohio State, at least. I have the Nittany Lions going 10-2, with a surprise upset loss on a west coast trip to UCLA before stumbling at Ohio State. Will that be enough to get them back to the Big Ten title game? More on that later...
Purdue
Record: 3-9 (1-8 in Big Ten)
Wins: Ball State, Southern Illinois and at Northwestern
Losses: USC, at Notre Dame, Illinois, Minnesota, Rutgers, at Michigan, Ohio State, at Washington and Indiana
Thoughts: I like the hire of Barry Odom for head coach but I unfortunately don't like what he will be forced to work with in year one. I expect the Boilermakers to take some lumps in year one under Odom, and wouldn't be shocked if they go winless in Big Ten play for a second straight year.
Rutgers
Record: 4-8 (2-7 in Big Ten)
Wins: Ohio, Norfolk State, at Purdue and Maryland
Losses: Miami (OH), Iowa, at Minnesota, at Washington, Oregon, at Illinois, at Ohio State and Penn State
Thoughts: The schedule is brutal for Rutgers this season, with games against arguably the top four teams in the Big Ten (Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon and Illinois). Combine that with a couple of trappy non-conference games to open the year and I could see this being a rough year for the Scarlet Knights. My week two upset loss to Miami (OH) is where I see things start to derail early in the year.
UCLA
Record: 6-6 (4-5 in Big Ten)
Wins: at UNLV, New Mexico, at Northwestern, Penn State, Maryland and Nebraska
Losses: Utah, at Michigan State, at Indiana, at Ohio State, Washington and at USC
Thoughts: UCLA will be must-watch TV (at least early in the season) thanks to the Nico Iamaleava transfer portal addition during the spring window. It'll be interesting to see how much he can elevate the Bruins, and for me personally, I think he's the difference between UCLA making and not making a bowl game. I also believe he plays a role in the Bruins picking up some notable wins over Penn State and Nebraska this season.
USC
Record: 9-3 (7-2 in Big Ten)
Wins: Missouri State, Georgia Southern, at Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, at Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa and UCLA
Losses: at Illinois, at Notre Dame and at Oregon
Thoughts: I'm bullish on the Trojans having a strong season and being a contender for the Big Ten title. The success or failures of USC will come down to quarterback play in Jayden Maiava, but the overall talent around him should be enough to give the Trojans a much higher floor this season than last. The schedule is tough, but if they can get past Michigan and at Nebraska, then I like their chances to reach nine, and maybe, 10 wins this season.
Washington
Record: 7-5 (4-5 in Big Ten)
Wins: Colorado State, UC Davis, at Washington State, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue and at UCLA
Losses: Ohio State, at Maryland, at Michigan, at Wisconsin and Oregon
Thoughts: There is a lot of excitement around what Jedd Fisch can do in year two at Washington -- in large part because of new starting quarterback Demond Williams Jr. He showed sparks of his capabilities last season, which has led some around the country to expect big things from the Huskies this year. I like Williams, but I'm not ready to go all in on Washington this year.
Wisconsin
Record: 6-6 (4-5 in Big Ten)
Wins: Miami (OH), Middle Tennessee State, Maryland, Iowa, Washington and Illinois
Losses: at Alabama, at Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, at Indiana and at Minnesota
Thoughts: Wisconsin is set to play one of (if not the) hardest schedules in the country this season so if they can just make a bowl game this year, that would be a massive success. The Badgers have probably three "easily" winnable games but after that it's tough sledding. If quarterback Billy Edwards can stay healthy for Wisconsin, then I think they find a way to pull a few upsets and get back to bowl eligibility to reduce the heat on head coach Luke Fickell's seat in Madison, Wisc.
Michigan State
Record: 7-5 (4-5 in Big Ten)
Wins: Western Michigan, Boston College, Youngstown State, UCLA, at Indiana, Michigan and Maryland
Losses: at USC, at Nebraska, at Minnesota, Penn State and at Iowa
Thoughts: The Michigan State schedule is full of toss-up games this season, and I believe they're going to come out on the right side of more than not. The Boston College game in week two will be a defining game for the Spartans this year as I have them winning that one and getting off to a 6-2 start from that momentum. The notable wins over UCLA, Indiana (on the road) and rival Michigan will give fans plenty to be excited about heading into year three under Jonathan Smith.
Final Big Ten Standings
Here is how the Big Ten standings would look based on my game-by-game predictions:
Big Ten Championship Game
Ohio State would face Penn State (wins tiebreakers over Oregon and USC) in the Big Ten Championship Game. In the rematch between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions, I have Penn State winning and claiming their first conference title since 2016.
College Football Playoff & Bowl Assignments
A total of 14 Big Ten teams would be bowl eligible based on my game-by-game predictions.
Here is a prediction of where each of those teams would land in the postseason:
College Football Playoff: Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs. SEC school
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Iowa vs. Big 12 school
GameAbove Sports Bowl: Indiana vs. MAC school
Holiday Bowl: USC vs. ACC school
LA Bowl: UCLA vs. Mountain West school
Las Vegas Bowl: Nebraska vs. former Pac-12 school
Music City Bowl: Michigan State vs. SEC school
Pinstripe Bowl: Minnesota vs. ACC school
ReliaQuest Bowl: Illinois vs. SEC school
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: Wisconsin vs. SEC, ACC or American Conference school
Valero Alamo Bowl: Washington vs. Big 12 school
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