Nuclear dimension of India-Pakistan rivalry
Peace initiatives such as the Lahore Peace Process of 1999 and the Agra Summit of 2001 notwithstanding, nuclear weapons, by themselves, did not guarantee peace.
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First Post
27-05-2025
- First Post
Is Shehbaz Sharif's ‘counter-terror' peace offer another trap for India? What history says
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif's latest offer of peace and counter-terror talks with India comes amid fresh tensions and echoes a familiar pattern of diplomacy followed by betrayal. With recent attacks and intelligence inputs raising red flags, history offers a cautionary tale—raising doubts over whether this renewed outreach is genuine or another strategic ploy. read more In a renewed push for diplomacy, Pakistan's leadership once again extended an olive branch to India, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressing willingness to engage in comprehensive peace talks to resolve all outstanding issues, including the perennial flashpoints of Kashmir and cross-border terrorism, alongside water disputes and trade. However, India's experience offers little hope for optimism, as Pakistan's peace overtures have often been followed by actions that undermine bilateral trust and escalate tensions, with the latest remarks by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif once again raising questions over the sincerity of Islamabad's intentions and the real motives behind its renewed call for dialogue. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD While speaking in Iran, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declared, 'We want to resolve all disputes, including the Kashmir and water issues, through negotiations. We are also ready to engage our neighbour on trade and counter-terrorism.' The timing of this overture, just weeks after a sharp military flare-up following a terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir has raised eyebrows. For many in New Delhi, it evokes a familiar pattern: peace proposals from Islamabad swiftly followed by actions that undermine them. Indian officials have dismissed Sharif's remarks as little more than 'recycled rhetoric,' citing Pakistan's persistent support for cross-border terrorism. Recent intelligence inputs indicating the regrouping of Jaish-e-Mohammed operatives in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir have only reinforced New Delhi's long-held position: that meaningful dialogue is impossible while terrorism remains an instrument of Pakistan's statecraft. A historical pattern of peace overtures and subsequent betrayals Since the partition in 1947, India and Pakistan have experienced cycles of conflict and attempted reconciliation. Notably, peace initiatives have often been derailed by subsequent hostile actions: 1999 Lahore Declaration: Signed with much fanfare by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and then Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, this agreement aimed at nuclear risk reduction and fostering peaceful relations. Yet, the fragile peace quickly shattered with the eruption of the Kargil conflict just months later, a major military intrusion attributed to Pakistan. 2001 Agra Summit: High-level talks between Vajpayee and then-Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf collapsed without a joint declaration. India pointed to Pakistan's continued equivocation on cross-border terrorism as the primary reason for the failure. 2004-2007 backchannel talks: During the era of President Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, secret negotiations reportedly came close to a consensus framework on Kashmir. However, political instability in Pakistan and the devastating 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, orchestrated by Pakistan-based militants, brought these promising discussions to an abrupt halt. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 2015 Modi's Lahore visit: An unexpected diplomatic gesture by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who made a surprise stopover in Lahore to meet Nawaz Sharif was followed shortly by the Pathankot airbase attack in early 2016, again attributed to Pakistan-based militant groups. 2019 Pulwama attack: A suicide bombing in February 2019 killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel in Pulwama, triggering India's retaliatory Balakot airstrikes deep inside Pakistani territory and escalating tensions. 2025 Pahalgam Attack: Just weeks before Sharif's current overture, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, resulted in 26 deaths. This incident prompted a swift and strong Indian response, including the temporary suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and the downgrading of diplomatic ties, highlighting the fragility of any peace efforts in the shadow of ongoing terror. 'Terror and talks cannot go together' New Delhi's consistent stance has been that 'terror and talks cannot go together,' asserting that a conducive, terror-free environment is a prerequisite for any meaningful dialogue. Reinforcing this firm stance, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recently reiterated that the Kashmir issue remains a bilateral matter, stressing that the Indian government is willing to discuss Kashmir with Pakistan but specifically regarding the vacating of illegally occupied Indian territory in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and the issue of terrorism. The persistent shadow of civil-military divide A critical obstacle to durable peace initiatives from Pakistan has often been the perceived discord between its civilian leadership and powerful military establishment. This persistent divide has historically undermined diplomatic efforts. Analysts in India often view Islamabad's calls for peace through the prism of its domestic challenges and international pressures. Pakistan is currently dealing with heavy economic headwinds with ongoing discussions with the IMF for financial assistance. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In the past, such periods have sometimes coincided with attempts to project a more peace-seeking image internationally, potentially aimed at garnering diplomatic goodwill or financial relief. The vast and disproportionate influence of Pakistan's military in its foreign policy also remains a crucial factor in assessing the sincerity and longevity of any diplomatic initiatives. The coming days will reveal India's official response to Sharif's latest offer. However, given the deep-seated mistrust, the recent military flare-up in Pahalgam, and India's firm stance on terrorism and PoK, a major diplomatic breakthrough remains a distant prospect. For now, Pakistan's offer is likely to be viewed not just on its face value but as part of a broader pattern requiring tangible and verifiable steps towards peace rather than mere declarations.
Deccan Herald
25-05-2025
- Deccan Herald
Nuclear dimension of India-Pakistan rivalry
Peace initiatives such as the Lahore Peace Process of 1999 and the Agra Summit of 2001 notwithstanding, nuclear weapons, by themselves, did not guarantee peace.
Indian Express
15-05-2025
- Indian Express
No hardsell for this adman-turned-diplomat Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri
OVER FOUR days of incessant firing at the Line of Control last week, over the din of drones, blackout screens, and frothing TV anchors, one of the few voices of calm was that of Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. Flanked by two officers, Colonel Sofiya Qureshi and Wing Commander Vyomika Singh, Misri became India's diplomatic voice during Operation Sindoor. Together, they signalled how in this operation, the military and diplomatic imperatives were in lock-step. For Misri, the message was clear: to ensure that the daily briefing was to the point — embellished with neither frill nor shrill. Not a tall order for a diplomat who began as an adman. Misri joined the Indian Foreign Service (IFS) in 1989, after three years at Lintas India in Mumbai and Contract Advertising in Delhi, where he worked closely with production teams. He would carry the skill of the hardsell to some of the toughest negotiating tables around the world — from China and Myanmar, where he held Ambassadorial stints, to Pakistan, where he was First Secretary during the Agra Summit. Misri's batchmates, colleagues and former Ambassadors talk of him as 'a thorough professional' and, more significantly, in the me-myself-and-I age of social media, someone 'who doesn't advertise himself'. A senior bureaucrat who has interacted with Misri when he was Ambassador in Myanmar vouches for 'another side' — a love for crime thrillers. He recalls a decade-old conversation with Misri in Naypyidaw, where they discussed Dog Day Afternoon, the 1975 Sidney Lumet classic, with Al Pacino in the lead. Growing up in a Kashmiri Pandit family in Srinagar, where he did his early schooling before moving to Udhampur and Gwalior, Misri, colleagues say, rarely speaks about himself at public or private gatherings. A former Ambassador who has known Misri from his early days at the Pakistan desk of the Ministry of External Affairs, says, 'He never made it about himself. It was all about his work. That was what kept him engrossed.' That self-effacing side was on display between May 7 and 10, when Misri stayed in touch with the military and worked the lines diplomatically, briefing and debriefing the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) and the office of the National Security Adviser (NSA). While his composure was noticed by those in the room where he addressed the media, he was sharp on Pakistan's complicity in cross-border terrorism — one day pulling out a photograph showing slain terrorists getting state funerals and explaining terror targets on a map another day. However, his statement on the evening of May 10, when he announced the pause on military action, led to an attack from war-mongering trolls who thought the ceasefire was a retreat on India's part, some even targeting his daughter. In response, Misri did what people know him for — he didn't dignify the comments with a public reaction; instead, he simply locked his social media handle. It may have been a rare, uncomfortable moment of media glare for someone who is used to working behind the scenes. In 2001, when the Agra Summit between then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf was organised, a former colleague recalls Misri putting in late hours. He was then posted as First Secretary at the Indian Mission in Islamabad, and was in India as part of the team overseeing the logistics of the Summit. 'He would work late into the night to plan his next day's work, even after everyone else had called it a day,' recalls the colleague. Misri would go on to take up other challenging assignments. He was India's Ambassador to China, when the ties between the two countries were impacted following the Galwan clashes in 2020. Despite strained ties between Delhi and Beijing, he was instrumental in the bilateral conversations at the military and diplomatic levels. So in October 2024, when India and China came to an agreement on disengagement of troops, it was Misri who announced it to the world, this time as Foreign Secretary, a position he assumed in July 2024 and will hold till July 2026. Misri also worked on the India-US Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies, while he was Deputy NSA between 2022 and 2024, working closely with NSA Ajit Doval. His colleagues in South Block recall a special gesture he made soon after taking over as Foreign Secretary. In September last year, Misri hosted a dinner to mark the 100th birthday of former Foreign Secretary M K Rasgotra, known in the fraternity as 'GOAT FS'. Rasgotra was India's Foreign Secretary between 1982 and 1985. He is also known to enjoy a rapport with Minister S Jaishankar, who, like him, was India's Ambassador to China before becoming Foreign Secretary. On assuming his office in Beijing in January 2019, the first photograph Misri posted was of the board showing the names of his predecessors, including Jaishankar and Shivshankar Menon. Besides his China experience and on the MEA's Pakistan desk, Misri has served in various Indian missions in Europe, Africa, Asia and North America. He was on the staff of two External Affairs Ministers (I K Gujral and Pranab Mukherjee), and has worked as Private Secretary for three Prime Ministers – I K Gujral, Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi. Mistri's knowledge of the workings of the PMO, the office of the NSA and the External Affairs Ministry are significant as he now has to implement India's foreign policy as determined and shaped by the trio in the political-strategic-security establishment — PM Modi, Jaishankar and Doval. As the trio arrived in New Delhi in the early hours of April 23, cutting short their Saudi Arabia visit in the wake of the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, it was Misri who received them at the airport, with a crucial briefing on the Pakistani imprint on the attacks, and other leads at that point. Over the next two days, Misri briefed the Ambassadors and the High Commissioners of G20 countries, linking Pakistan-based terror groups to the Pahalgam attack, in which 26 civilians were killed.
