Analysis: Is Israel planning to strike Iran, or is it bluffing?

Al Jazeera

a day ago

Israel has been pushing to strike Iran for months, if not years. Signs this week that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities was potentially imminent have ratcheted up fears of a regional conflict, particularly in light of the US withdrawal of some diplomatic staff and their dependents from Iraq and the wider region.
US President Donald Trump's comments have added to the sense that a military confrontation is coming, saying on Thursday that a strike 'could very well happen'.
And yet, at the same time, Trump said that he would not call the strike imminent, and wanted to avoid a conflict.
Earlier in the week, Israeli media reported that Trump had also asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to dial down talk of a strike against Iran, adding to the sense that Trump himself wanted to avoid any conflict with Iran, especially as nuclear talks between Iran and the US are ongoing – with the next round set to take place on Sunday.
Whether an Israeli strike will take place in the short term is thus still unclear.
'One way of looking at this is that it may be part of the larger picture,' Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, said of the role the threat of unilateral action from Israel may play in US negotiations with Iran. 'It may be that the US is using their 'crazy friend' as a tactic to bring pressure upon Iran … On the other hand, it may be that the crazy friend means business.'
Israel's opposition to Iran is longstanding.
Through the course of its 20-month-long war on Gaza, Netanyahu has seized on the opportunity to confront a foe he has consistently pitched as his country's ultimate nemesis.
In addition to boasting that he was responsible for Trump's decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal limiting Iran's nuclear programme in 2018, Netanyahu has also ordered air strikes, assassinations and cyberattacks designed to either slow or halt Iran's nuclear programme.
The Israeli right-wing, led by Netanyahu, has long considered Iran an existential threat and believes that the country seeks a nuclear weapon, despite Iranian denials.
Iran also supports anti-Israeli groups across the region, including the Lebanese group Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis. With many of Iran's allies, particularly Hezbollah, severely weakened after fighting Israel since 2023, some in Israel view this as the perfect opportunity to also deliver a knockout blow to Iran itself.
Speaking to the New York Times on Wednesday, a senior Iranian official said that military and government officials have already met in anticipation of a potential Israeli strike.
According to the unnamed official, any strike by Israel would be met with the immediate launch of hundreds of ballistic missiles.
'Logically, and I'm stressing 'logically,' Israel shouldn't strike at Iran,' Mekelberg said, 'Even with US support, it likely wouldn't be a good idea.'
'However, in this environment, there are no voices that are going to restrain Netanyahu: not the foreign minister, not the defence minister,' he said.
'The head of the Shin Bet [domestic intelligence service], who would normally counsel Netanyahu, has been forced out, and the attorney general, who might also advise him, [Netanyahu is] trying to get dismissed,' Mekelberg added. 'That leaves no one, perhaps other than some voices in the military and Mossad, that could act as a check on Netanyahu.'
Internationally, both Israel and Netanyahu have become increasingly isolated, throwing their relationship with the US into sharp focus.
In the last few weeks, many Western states have increased their opposition towards Israel's war on Gaza.
Earlier in the week, five countries – Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom – sanctioned two of Netanyahu's government ministers, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, leaving Israel more reliant upon US support than ever, observers said.
'I can't see Israel taking any action without the US,' Mitchell Barak, an Israeli pollster and former political aide to several senior Israeli political figures, including Netanyahu, told Al Jazeera.
'Something is definitely going on, but I can't see Israel doing anything without the tacit or active support of the US.'
'This could be a negotiating tactic on the part of Trump. He's entered negotiations, and he wants results. Now, he sees Iran stalling, the IAEA report condemning them, and suddenly, he's got Netanyahu threatening to strike if they don't cut a deal,' he said.
Other observers questioned the timing of both reports of Trump restraining Netanyahu's threat of strikes, as well as the International Atomic Energy Agency report – which determined that Iran was not complying with its commitment to international nuclear safeguards – falling so close to Sunday's talks.
'Right now, every taxi in Tel Aviv will tell you that Israel's about to strike at Iran,' Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador and consul general in New York, told Al Jazeera. 'I may be wrong, but I really doubt it.
'Netanyahu's unlikely to do anything without the US's greenlight. It's not the way he or Israel works,' he said.
'I don't think that's going to let up,' Pinkas said of negotiations likely to continue beyond Sunday, 'I fully expect Trump to again speak of having to restrain Netanyahu. It's just another means of exerting pressure on Iran.'
However, that is not to rule out a strike from Israel altogether.
'There may be one, but if there is, it'll come at the US's request and be of some peripheral target with no real value.'