Latest news with #ChathamHouse
Business Insider
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Russia is pouring money into its war machine — but it's still struggling to create new, advanced systems
Russia is spending record amounts on defense. But it's falling behind in building the advanced, modern military it needs for future wars, according to a new report. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered sweeping sanctions that not only damaged its ability to procure advanced technology but also weakened its military-scientific base, wrote Mathieu Boulègue, a consulting fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at London-based Chatham House, in a report published on Monday. "This damage, in turn, affects the rate of military innovation and R&D. More importantly, it determines how the Kremlin will wage war in the future," wrote Boulègue, a specialist in Eurasian security and defense issues. Russia is set to spend 6.3% of its GDP on defense this year — a post-Cold War high. However, the country's military-industrial complex has been "degraded" by trade restrictions and the demands of wartime production, according to Boulègue. "Russia's ability to produce military hardware has been severely impacted, and its ability to innovate and adopt modern military technology constrained as a result of these challenges," he added. With sanctions cutting off access to critical imports, Russia has been left scrambling to replace advanced components with inferior stand-ins. As early as August 2022, Russian state-owned carrier Aeroflot began stripping spare parts from working aircraft due to sanctions-induced supply shortages. In October, Russia filmed its troops using a Soviet howitzer, showing its military stockpiles were under strain. Boulègue assessed that the state of Russia's military-industrial complex is one of regression, not progress. "Russia will likely have to simplify and slow its military production, accept reduced quality of outputs and manage a form of 'innovation stagnation' in its research and development," he wrote, referring to Russia's state armament programme from 2025 to 2034. As a result, Russia's pathway to military innovation is likely to remain incremental — built on small tweaks to old systems rather than genuine breakthroughs. "Innovation generally takes the form of integrating technological solutions directly into proven, older-generation systems — which in turn makes them 'modern,'" Boulègue wrote. Russia's military sector has adopted a "retain-and-adapt" approach because military production is no longer innovation-led. "In other words, Russia 'innovates' through 'smart adaptation' under technical and economical constraints that have a negative, cumulative effect at the tactical level," he added. In the short term, Russia's military-industrial complex will likely keep producing systems that are "good enough" to pose a clear and constant threat to Ukraine, NATO, and the West. But its long-term ability to compete with advanced military powers is eroding. The stresses on Russia's military-industry complex also mean the broader economy is under increasing strain, despite initial signs of wartime growth. "The war economy brings 'good' macroeconomic results, but is causing real-world problems such as increased inflation, decreasing wages and purchasing power, and a liquidity crisis in the banking sector," wrote Boulègue. Russia's economy has shown signs of fatigue recently. Manufacturing activity contracted sharply in June as weak demand and a strong ruble affected exports and jobs. Low oil prices are also hitting the country's all-important oil and gas sector. Meanwhile, a demographic crisis and competition for labor with the military are also hurting the economy in the long and short term.
The Hill
3 days ago
- Business
- The Hill
War in Gaza tests ties between Israel and traditional European allies
LONDON (AP) — Britain threatened Tuesday to take further action against Israel if it does not agree to end the war in Gaza, a day after two dozen mostly European countries condemned Israel's restrictions on aid shipments into the territory and the killings of hundreds of Palestinians trying to reach food. Despite the increasingly strong words, many are skeptical that Israel will yield to such pressure without more significant punitive action — and especially without the backing of Germany and the U.S., Israel's strongest Western allies. Outrage over Israel's actions in Gaza has grown in Europe as images of suffering Palestinians have driven protests in London, Berlin, Brussels and other capitals. More recently, the almost daily killings of Palestinians while seeking aid have tested the EU's friendly relationship with Israel like never before. But Europe remains divided on its stance toward Israel, and its limited sanctions and condemnations so far have had little effect. Here's a look at what Europe can do or has done — and why it hasn't done more. EU reviews its ties with Israel over Gaza The EU has been reviewing its diplomatic and trade ties with Israel over its conduct in Gaza. An internal report recently found indications that Israel has violated its human rights obligations under the EU-Israel Association Agreement, a 25-year-old legal framework governing the political relationship and trade cooperation between the two sides. But so far the EU has taken no action to suspend such ties. Some have criticized the EU — Israel's biggest trading partner — for a lack of political courage and for underestimating its leverage on Israel. 'What we can see is mounting pressure, but those are words, those are not actions,' said Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow at London's Chatham House think tank. Individual countries, such as Britain, Canada and Australia, have slapped sanctions on Israeli settlers in connection with violence against Palestinians, including asset freezes and travel bans. But such measures have yielded few results. In addition, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway have sanctioned two far-right Israeli ministers for allegedly 'inciting extremist violence' against Palestinians in the West Bank. The U.K. said in May that it would suspend free trade talks with Israel, also over the West Bank. British Foreign Secretary David Lammy hinted at stronger action Tuesday, saying he felt 'sickened' by the suffering in Gaza, but he did not specify what measures were being considered. 'We will continue to pressure. We will continue to act,' Lammy told British media, stressing the need to work with allies to get the 'maximum result.' Speaking Tuesday on X, European Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen reiterated the EU's call for 'the free, safe and swift flow of humanitarian aid. And for the full respect of international and humanitarian law. Civilians in Gaza have suffered too much, for too long.' If Israel does not change course, options could include fully or partially suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which would require a unanimous agreement by all 27 members of the EU. Other steps could be suspending an aviation agreement, blocking imports from settlements, limiting scientific and technological cooperation, and curtailing travel for Israelis in the visa-free zone known as Schengen, according to a leaked document sent by the EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, to member states. The document was seen by The Associated Press and verified by two EU diplomats. Nations could act on their own, including sanctioning specific companies or individuals in Israel or the occupied West Bank. Why hasn't Europe taken stronger action? The short answer is that Europe remains divided, and it is highly unlikely that the entire EU would reach unanimity to drastically dial up pressure on Israel. European nations such as Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain have publicly urged the EU to reassess its ties with Israel, charging that Israel has violated human rights conditions in its agreement with Brussels. But Germany and Hungary have staunchly defended Israel, along with Romania, which just bought air-defense systems from Israel. Suspending EU ties with Israel would require a unanimous decision, which is likely impossible to obtain. Germany is the main holdout Monday's joint statement by 25 countries was rejected by the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, who called it 'disgusting.' Western allies should instead pressure the 'savages of Hamas,' he said. Israel condemned the countries' stance and said Hamas was the sole party responsible for prolonging the war. Hamas triggered the ongoing 21-month war with its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, and continues to hold some 50 Israeli hostages. One significant outlier in Europe is Germany, traditionally a staunch ally of Israel in Europe, with relations rooted in the memory of the Holocaust. The country has vehemently rejected the idea of suspending the EU's association agreement with Israel. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and other officials have gradually sharpened their criticism of Israel's actions in Gaza in recent months. But they still appear to favor trying to influence Israel by conveying their concerns directly. Germany did not join allies in signing Monday's letter condemning Israeli restrictions on aid. There were signs of pushback within the German government Tuesday, when the parliamentary leader of Merz's junior coalition partner, the Social Democrats, said Germany should join Britain's initiative and that 'double standards undermine our international credibility.' Merz said Monday that he had spoken at length with Netanyahu last week and 'told him very clearly that we do not share the Israeli government's Gaza policy.' 'The way the Israeli army is acting there is unacceptable,' he said. Nomi Bar-Yaacov, an expert on diplomacy in the Middle East, said any EU action must go beyond words. 'Israel doesn't listen to language,' Bar-Yaacov said. 'I mean, language doesn't go anywhere with the current Israeli government. Unless a mechanism is agreed and enforced promptly, then the words have no meaning whatsoever.'
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
'Not transformative': Chatham House pans UK-India free trade deal; urges broader Indo-Pacific focus
(Image credits: X @ChathamHouse) NEW DELHI: As Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares for his highly anticipated visit to the UK to formally sign the UK-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA), a new report by leading British think tank Chatham House is urging the UK government to broaden its Indo-Pacific strategy beyond the trade deal with India. In its latest research paper titled 'Why the Indo-Pacific should be a higher priority for the UK', the Royal Institute of International Affairs, commonly known as Chatham House, cautions against a narrow bilateral approach. It calls for deeper regional engagement across South Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific. Authored by Chietigj Bajpaee, Olivia O'Sullivan, and Ben Bland, the paper warns that focusing solely on India risks sidelining other parts of South Asia, which are not experiencing the same economic growth. As quoted by PTI, the report says, 'In South Asia, the UK needs to build on its successful conclusion of a limited trade deal with India to widen the scope of bilateral cooperation in a way that leverages both countries' broader foreign policy priorities (eg engagement with the US and the Global South). ' The UK and India agreed on an FTA on May 6, with a target to double trade between the two economies to USD 120 billion by 2030. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Live Update: The Strategy Uses By Successful Intraday Trader TradeWise Learn More Undo The agreement is currently undergoing 'legal scrubbing' and is expected to be formally signed during PM Modi's meeting with British prime minister Keir Starmer on Thursday. While the report acknowledges that the FTA complements the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership launched in 2021, it argues the deal is unlikely to significantly alter the bilateral economic relationship. 'The announcement in May 2025 of the UK's conclusion of a free-trade agreement with India complements efforts to build out the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership that was agreed with New Delhi in 2021," says the report. However, it adds, "But given India's protectionist instincts, any final deal is unlikely to be transformative for the bilateral economic relationship. That is why it is important that the UK government supports other channels that can expand trade and investment linkages, such as the Technology Security Initiative that was launched in 2024.' Chatham House further cautions against overreliance on India's economy while neighboring countries struggle. 'More broadly, gambling on India's economy to rise more or less on its own – in the absence of similar progress in neighbouring economies – would be a poor bet,' reported PTI, citing the report. Instead, it recommends expanding trilateral cooperation involving the UK, India, and other strategic partners such as France, Australia, and the United States. The report urges the UK to ''Expand the UK's links with India beyond the recently completed (and long-awaited) trade deal (and) pursue trilateral cooperation involving the UK, India and third-country partners such as France, Australia or the US.' Highlighting the Indo-Pacific's global significance, the paper notes that the region is home to the majority of the world's population and is projected to contribute over 50 percent of global economic growth by 2050. Covering countries from South Asia to Southeast Asia and the Pacific, including Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, the region presents both risks and opportunities. 'The region is critical for British interests because it encompasses security risks affecting the UK, presents vital long-term economic opportunities, and is vulnerable to climate risks that – if not mitigated – will have a major impact on the world,' the report states. Addressing the growing influence of China, the report points out that while the UK has limited capacity to shape Beijing's actions directly, it can help shape the regional environment. 'Getting its approach to the Indo-Pacific right will also help the UK to manage the challenges of a more powerful, assertive and globally influential China. Despite limited capacity to shape Beijing's actions directly, the UK can influence the neighbourhood in which China resides by working with partners to establish and enforce shared norms, and to support regional countries' sovereignty and resilience,' the authors write. Beyond South Asia, the report identifies Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea—termed the 'Indo-Pacific Four'—as essential partners where the UK should strengthen ties, especially amid an increasingly 'volatile' US foreign policy environment. Southeast Asia is also highlighted for offering 'singular opportunities to expand UK trade and investment.'
Channel 4
6 days ago
- Health
- Channel 4
‘People are scared for their lives' – Syrian research fellow at Chatham House
We spoke to Dr Haid Haid, who's Syrian and a senior research fellow at the Arab Reform Initiative and the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank in London.
Egypt Independent
6 days ago
- Politics
- Egypt Independent
Russia tightens its stranglehold on Ukraine battlefield as Trump gifts Putin 50-day window
Kyiv CNN — US President Donald Trump's 50-day pause ahead of possible secondary sanctions on Russia gifts the Kremlin a window to exploit the incremental gains of recent weeks, which analysts say increasingly put key Ukrainian strongholds in the east in peril. Russia is thought to be days or weeks away from surging into a heightened summer offensive, perhaps using the 160,000 troops Ukrainian officials have said are amassing near their front lines. But in the past two weeks, Russia has also made small but vital advances, placing its forces in a better position to cut off Ukrainian troops in three key towns – Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka and Kupiansk – on the eastern front line. The Kremlin appeared unperturbed by the new Trump deadline, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saying on Tuesday: 'Fifty days – it used to be 24 hours; it used to be 100 days; we've been through all of this.' Analysts said the new time frame boded well for Russian President Vladimir Putin's goals. Keir Giles from Chatham House wrote Tuesday that it also provided space for Moscow on the diplomatic stage. 'The deadline of 50 days gives Russia plenty of time to concoct its own alternative plan, and once again outmanoeuvre Washington through a diplomatic ploy which Trump may well accept willingly… Trump's latest extension of his notional deadlines for Putin extends Ukraine's suffering for the same arbitrary period.' John Lough, head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank, said the summer offensive had likely been underway for several months already, and that 'the Russians are undoubtedly intensifying their efforts, both on the ground and in the air.' He said the recent aerial onslaught against Ukraine's cities was perhaps a reflection of Moscow's slow progress on the front lines, and aimed 'to demoralize the population and zap its will to fight.' 'Putin has sounded for a few months now quite confident about the progress of this campaign, recognizing that the Ukrainians are short of manpower, (and) short of certain weapons systems,' Lough said, adding that Moscow was hoping to spread the Ukrainian defense too thin. 'We're going to see a continuation of that over the next at least 50 days.' The incremental advances Moscow has made around these three towns have come at a significant cost. But mapping of the front line by DeepState, a Ukrainian monitoring service, and reports from the region show Russian progress in a bid to flank all three. In the past 72 hours, Russian forces have edged closer to Rodynske, a key settlement to the northeast of Pokrovsk, a main Ukrainian military hub besieged by Moscow for months. This advance is matched to Pokrovsk's west, where Russian troops are now moving to encircle the village of Udachne, enabling them to challenge supply routes into Pokrovsk with greater efficiency. A Ukrainian commander, who goes by the call sign Musician, and has led a drone company near Pokrovsk since October, told CNN the Russian offensive had been underway for some time. 'It has probably not reached its peak yet,' he said, 'but they have been advancing for some time and are doing so quite successfully.' Musician said the defense of Rodynske was key. 'The enemy understands this and is counting on it. If they advance from Rodynske, the situation will be critical. There are one or two roads there that they can take control of, and logistics will be cut off. It's a logical move on the part of the enemy.' He said reinforcements were urgently needed there, or they would risk a repeat of the encircling and retreat seen in early 2024 around the town of Avdiivka – to Pokrovsk's east. Ukrainian troops held on in Avdiivka for months, until they lacked the numbers and resources to maintain their grip on the town, in a defeat that came to symbolise both Kyiv's tenacity and Moscow's relentless tolerance for high casualties to take territory. A special Ukrainian police force helps evacuate some of the last civilians from Kostantynivka, Ukraine, on July 16, 2025. Residents there have faced daily bombardment. National Police of Ukraine Ukrainian military blogger Bohdan Miroshnikov wrote that if Rodynske is 'captured, this will complete the encirclement of our entire left flank' around Pokrovsk, adding similarly pessimistic assessments of the right flank and south. 'If things continue like this, there will be few options left… either our garrison will be forced to retreat under threat of encirclement, or there will be fierce fighting in a semi-encirclement with unclear prospects.' The Russian military Telegram channel 'Voennaya Khronika,' which translates to 'military chronicle,' said the ambition was for Pokrovsk to fall like Avdiivka and Bakhmut before it, with 'successive flank isolation, pressure on supply lines and frontal stagnation after strategic exhaustion.' DeepState's mapping also shows advances towards Kostyantynivka – another key hub in the east – which Russia has swiftly approached in the past two weeks from the southeast and southwest, and which is now relentlessly hit by attack drones. Ukrainian blogger and serviceman Stanislav Buniatov, who goes by the call sign Osman, wrote that the advances bring Moscow's forces further into the Dnipropetrovsk region, an area not originally part of Putin's territorial goals. The daily clashes leave '70-90% of the enemy's personnel and equipment destroyed, but the enemy is advancing, and everyone understands why,' Osman wrote. Misleading reports from Ukrainian commanders to their superiors were hampering their defense, DeepState posted on Wednesday. 'A big part of the enemy's success is the lies in reports from the field about the real state of affairs, which makes it hard to assess risks and respond to changes in the situation from above… this is a huge problem that has catastrophic consequences. Lies will destroy us all.' The post highlighted the area to the south of Pokrovsk as particularly vulnerable to this internal, Ukrainian failing. Russian advances are slighter to the north of Kupiansk but present another challenge to Kyiv's often over-stretched forces. Moscow's advance since June 23 from Holubivka has left it now in control of a key access road to the north of Kupiansk, by the settlement of Radkivka. Kupiansk is one of the main towns to the east of Ukraine's second city, Kharkiv, and control over it helps secure the city of an estimated million people.
