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Yahoo
29 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Bitcoin at $200K by Year-End is Now Firmly in Play, Analyst Says After Muted U.S. Inflation Data
Wednesday's softer-than-expected U.S. inflation has likely set the stage for accelerated gains in bitcoin BTC, potentially to $200,000 by the end of the year, according to Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares. "If BTC breaks out of the $105K-$110K range with conviction, we could see a sharp move to $120K and, more importantly, reach our year-end price target of $138.5K by the end of the summer," Mena told CoinDesk in an email. "Today's CPI print may serve as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin - and it may be the unlock that brings this target forward by several months. If momentum continues building, a $200K Bitcoin by year-end is now firmly in play," Mena added. 21Shares is one of the world's first and largest issuers of crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs), The report from the Labor Department released Wednesday showed that the cost of living, measured by the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% last month after increasing 0.2% in April. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast a 0.2% increase. Notably, the CPI for durable goods, most of which are imported or manufactured with imported content, decreased by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% month-to-month (-1.3% annualized), indicating that President Donald Trump's tariffs have not yet been fully passed through to the final consumer. The annualized CPI advanced 2.4%, with core inflation matching the pace of April at 2.8%. "This continued trend of cooling inflation strengthens the case for potential policy easing later this year. With the Fed's June meeting approaching, the focus now shifts to how soon policymakers may respond to cooling inflation and shifting macro clarity," Mena said in an email to CoinDesk. The CPI report prompted traders to price in 47 basis points of Fed easing, equivalent to roughly two 25 basis point rate cuts, this year, compared to 42 basis points early this week. Further, traders priced fully priced the rate cut for October, with the September probability hovering above 70%. Mena explained that the CPI tailwind comes on the heels of several bullish catalysts, such as sovereign and institutional adoption and the impending stablecoin regulation. "As macro clarity improves, we should see Bitcoin flows accelerate - driven by renewed institutional confidence, increased activity from Bitcoin treasuries, and the continued rollout of state-level Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) programs. These dynamics could supercharge ETF inflows and reinforce Bitcoin's evolving role in global portfolios. Bitcoin is built for this environment," Mena noted. BTC changed hands at $108,440 at press time, according to CoinDesk data.


Bloomberg
38 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
The Fed Can Now Declare Victory Over Inflation
When it comes to inflation, America has reached a ' Mission Accomplished ' moment. Rule No. 1 of inflation reports is never to read too much into one report, but there have now been several months of fairly low inflation, so it seems safe to call it: The Fed did its job. Pandemic inflation is over. Note that I do not say, 'Inflation is over.' Between tariffs and lower immigration, higher inflation is likely. But even if the next inflation report shows a big uptick, this week's is an important marker. It bolsters the Fed's credibility, showing that it is capable of fulfilling its mandate — and it gives the Fed more policy options if inflation returns.
Yahoo
43 minutes ago
- Yahoo
UK economy shrinks in April as US tariffs kick in
Britain's economy shrank more than expected in April following a tax hike on UK businesses and a record drop in exports to the United States due to President Donald Trump's tariffs, official data showed Thursday. Gross domestic product contracted 0.3 percent in the month, compared to 0.2 percent growth in March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement. Analysts' consensus had been for a GDP contraction of 0.1 percent in April. Exports of British goods to the United States fell by a record £2 billion ($2.7 billion) the same month, the ONS revealed, following the introduction of Trump's tariffs onslaught. The data comes one day after Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour government laid out its priorities for the coming years, hoping that changes to day-to-day spending amounts and longer-term investment will spur Britain's sluggish economy. - 'Clearly disappointing' - Finance minister Rachel Reeves injected the ailing National Health Service with billions of pounds and pumped funds into defence and housing, while making cuts to other departments. Reeves said Thursday's figures were "clearly disappointing" but insisted that her spending plans would deliver growth for Britain. Paul Dales, chief UK economist at research group Capital Economics, noted that the economy faced "subdued overseas demand and domestic businesses cutting back on spending to compensate for the rise in costs driven by April's increase in taxes". Following Labour's return to power last July, following years of Conservative rule, Reeves announced a tax rise for UK businesses which entered force in April. Official data this week showed that the hike had contributed to a small rise in Britain's unemployment rate and slowdown to growth in average wages. - Record drop - Britain's economy had expanded by 0.7 percent in the first three months of the year. "With the economy now weakening, we can expect to see concerns around further tax rises increase as we near the Autumn Budget -- which is likely to weigh on growth even more," said Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter. The latest data follows also the introduction of a baseline 10-percent tariff imposed on the UK and other countries by Trump at the start of April. The UK and US have since struck a trade agreement that cuts tariffs on British cars and scraps them on steel and aluminium. Britain in return has agreed to open up its markets to US beef and other American farm goods. But the UK remains subject to a 10-percent tariff on most goods exported to the United States. Decreases in exports to the United States in April were seen "across most types of goods, following the recent introduction of tariffs", said ONS director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown. Machinery and transport equipment, including cars, took a notable hit, after four months of consecutive increases for exports of British goods to the US. Official data earlier this year showed trade in goods between the UK and US remained balanced in 2024. Britain imported £57.1 billion ($77 billion) worth of American goods last year and exported products worth a total of £59.3 billion. ajb/bcp/lth