It's that time of year again: Calculating college golf's Magic Number
It's that time of year again: Calculating college golf's Magic Number
The conference championship season is upon us, and that means it is time to crunch the numbers.
I coined the phrase 'Magic Number' nearly two decades ago, so to me, early April is not only about the Azaleas. It's Magic Number time.
What does that term mean? Simply that when looking at the rankings, the Magic Number is the number needed to achieve a spot in NCAA regional play.
Rarely – or should I say almost never – has the NCAA Division I Men's or Women's Golf Committee wavered from descending straight down the list to select the postseason field.
However, don't bring up that topic with former Missouri head men's golf coach Mark Leroux. The Tigers were grossly overlooked by the men's committee for the 2021 postseason. Despite being well inside the Magic Number, the Tigers were not selected for regional play.
The 2020-2021 season was a tough year due to COVID. The .500 Rule had been lifted, and Leroux's squad was well below the 50% head-to-head winning percentage that is usually required to qualify. Despite the .500 Rule not being a factor for that unusual season, the committee obviously took it into consideration.
Normally, if a team is on the number or inside of it, that team is good to go. However, that does not prevent all of those teams considered to be on the bubble from being a bit nervous come selection day.
Women's conference championships get started this weekend and on April 13, the Colonial Athletic Association and Northeast Conference will be the first two conferences to offer tickets to regional play.
The first men's team to punch a ticket will come out of the SWAC on April 16.
Heading into the conference tournaments, what does the Magic Number look like?
We will start with the women and a new wrinkle this year: that pesky .500 Rule. This new guideline for postseason eligibility requires a team to have a head-to-head won-loss record of 50% or better.
Based on the latest edition of the current college golf rankings and what I estimate head-to-head records to be, the women's Magic Number appears to be in the neighborhood of 56.
The men first had the .500 Rule in place for the 2007-08 season and for the most part, the men have navigated that rule well with just one or two teams per year missing. There have also been several years when no teams fell below the guideline. This year, we may only see one team or possibly none.
I would put the men's Magic Number at 68 heading into the conference championships, any upsets or teams inside that not meeting the .500 Rule requirement could push that number closer to 70.
Last year, we saw just one bid stealer in all of college golf with the Indiana women's team winning the Big Ten title and claiming the AQ. Don't expect to see many upsets again this year, which will keep the Magic Number on both sides from moving much.
Happy conference championship season to all!
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