Crashing into the election's final fortnight like a truck hitting an early voting centre
After an Easter-induced pause in campaigning, we're within the last couple weeks of Australia's elections. Long-suffering election watcher James Colley is still here, looking on as Anthony Albanese gets asked intense geopolitical questions on The Sunday Footy Show, and Peter Dutton manages to tie everything back to cheaper petrol – including Easter chocolate
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The Herald Scotland
an hour ago
- The Herald Scotland
May jobs report shows 139,000 jobs were added last month
Before the report's release, economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated that 125,000 jobs were added last month. Job gains for March and April were revised down by a combined 95,000, portraying a weaker labor market that believed in late winter and early spring. March's total was downgraded from 185,000 to 120,000 and April's, from 177,000 to 147,000. Is the job market good or bad right now? The labor market has held up remarkably well despite the hurdles posed by Trump's economic policies, with employment gains averaging well over 100,000 a month so far this year. But many forecasters reckoned a more pronounced hiring slowdown took shape in May and would intensify in the months ahead. Trump's trade strategy lies at the center of the projected downshift. He paused the high double-digit tariffs he slapped on dozens of countries in April and in May agreed to slash levies on Chinese imports from 145% to a still-elevated 30%. China agreed to broadly similar concessions. But the moves hinge on further U.S. deals with China and other countries. And 25% tariffs remain in effect on all imported cars and many goods from Canada and Mexico. This week, Trump hiked fees on steel and aluminum imports to 50% from 25%. And while a trade court last month struck down many of Trump's tariffs, they remain in effect during an appeal, prolonging the uncertainty for businesses. Economists expect the duties to reignite inflation within a month or two and dampen consumer spending. The costs also have heightened business uncertainty, curtailing hiring and investment. How many federal employees are laid off? The Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency has cut as many as 120,000 federal jobs but many workers have been placed on administrative leave, leaving them on U.S. payrolls pending court cases, Morgan Stanley said in a report. Still, the reductions have started to filter into the jobs numbers. Goldman Sachs estimates federal employment declined by a relatively modest 10,000 in May, adding to the 26,000 government workers that Capital Economics says already have been chopped since February. Are there still immigrants coming to America? Besides toughening enforcement at the southern border, the administration has canceled or declined to renew work permits and other protections for hundreds of thousands of migrants, economist Lydia Boussour of EY-Parthenon wrote in a note to clients. That will likely mean a smaller labor supply that further constrains hiring, especially in industries such as construction and hospitality, she said. Some calendar quirks also could have suppressed employment last month. For technical reasons, a late Easter likely boosted payrolls in April but heralds a lower tally for May as staffing levels returned to normal, Morgan Stanley said. Yet while hiring generally has slowed, other economists figured job growth remained sturdy last month as companies frustrated by labor shortages during the pandemic continued to curtail layoffs. Capital Economics and Barclays both predicted 150,000 jobs gains for May. By the end of the year, however, Barclays believes tariffs, federal layoffs and immigration curbs will slow average monthly job gains to about 75,000.
The Guardian
17 hours ago
- The Guardian
Albanese must tread a fine line when he meets Trump. He can't bow to him but he can't alienate the US either
Things were tense as John Gorton prepared to meet Lyndon Johnson at the White House in May 1968. In office just a few months, the Australian prime minister had criticised the US president for a lack of consultation over America's military plans for the Vietnam war in the lead up to the important visit. In a briefing note uncovered by the historian James Curran, Gorton was described to his hosts as having a crumpled nose 'like an ex-prize fighter'. Worse, Washington was warned that the Australian leader was a 'conclusion jumper' and lacked experience in foreign affairs. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email Despite meetings at the White House and a visit to the famed LBJ ranch in Texas, Gorton left America feeling uneasy about his relationship with Johnson and how the trip would play to the domestic audience at home. Anthony Albanese could be forgiven for a similar feeling. The Labor leader is expected to have his first face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Calgary, Canada. Since Trump emerged as the lightning rod third candidate in the federal election campaign, Albanese has struggled to get his counterpart on the phone to plead Australia's case for an exemption to the president's growing roster of trade tariffs. Albanese described the decision by Australia's most important ally as an act of economic self-harm and not the actions of a friend, but he also weaponised the spectre of Trump-style politics in his demolition of Peter Dutton on 3 May. Once in the room, Albanese is expected to talk up Australia's supply of rare earths and critical minerals as he fights for exemptions from the 50% tariff now applied to steel and aluminium imports, and Australia's inclusion in the 10% baseline rate Trump imposed back in April. China dominates global supplies of critical minerals, required for specialist manufacturing, and a reliable ally able to balance the ledger should be helpful for the US, especially in the event of a conflict with Beijing. Albanese said on Friday he was not prepared to give ground on one longstanding American gripe. He said any move to weaken a biosecurity ban on some beef imports from the US in exchange for more favourable tariff treatment was a non-starter. Bans have existed since a 2003 mad cow disease outbreak, with cattle raised in Canada and Mexico but slaughtered in the US still barred under 2019 rules. Other irritants include the decades-long fight by America's pharma companies to kill off Australia's Pharmaceuticals Benefits Scheme, and the news media bargaining code, viewed in the White House as unfairly targeting American social media companies. If a meeting between the two leaders is locked in over coming days, Albanese will undoubtedly be trying to avoid an ambush like those endured by Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy and South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office. Trump's treatment of then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull in their infamous phone call back in January 2017 is still front of mind for Australian diplomats as well. Albanese said on Friday he would seek to continue cordial conversations with Trump, even if relations between the pair deteriorated. 'I deal with people, whoever they are, in the same respectful way. I expect respect back,' Albanese told ABC radio in Melbourne. 'I'm the prime minister of Australia. We don't have a subservient relationship to any nation. We're a sovereign nation that stands on our own two feet.' Albanese seems to have charmed the capricious commander-in-chief – so far, at least. Last month Trump said he had a very good relationship with his Australian counterpart, telling reporters on the White House lawn Albanese had been 'very, very nice' and 'very respectful' to him. Sign up to Breaking News Australia Get the most important news as it breaks after newsletter promotion In reality, the pair have little in common. A reality TV star turned politician, Trump lived a gilded lifestyle in Manhattan before entering politics, rolling around the city as a playboy property developer, married three times and courting tabloid reporters to boast about his exploits. A Democrat and donor to Hillary Clinton before joining the Republican party to run for president, Trump's loyalties are transactional at best. Albanese was raised by a single mother in public housing in Sydney. His mentor and father figure was the Labor great Tom Uren. A former prisoner of war and minister in the Whitlam and Hawke governments, Uren taught his protege the spirit of collectivism, caring for vulnerable people and using political power to improve people's lives. Recent meetings offer a diplomatic playbook. The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, used his Oval Office audience this week to paper over differences on foreign policy and the war in Ukraine, sitting back as Trump criticised his one-time ally in Tesla boss, Elon Musk, as well as Germany's former leader Angela Merkel in a 30-minute rant to waiting media. Having prepared for the meeting by speaking with other world leaders about how to handle Trump one on one, Merz presented him with a gold-framed birth certificate of his grandfather, Friedrich Trump, who migrated from Germany to the US in 1885. The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, a friend of Albanese, performed similarly well back in February, taking an invitation from King Charles III for a state visit to the UK and eventually securing a tariff exemption through agreement on framework for a new trade deal. The visit is expected to take place in Scotland, the country of Trump's mother's birth and where he is planning to open a luxury golf course. The stakes are high for Albanese. Tariffs aside, the US is Australia's key defence and security partner and the personal relationship with the president is usually a key test of Australian prime ministers on the world stage. While Trump is disliked by many Australian voters – 64% of respondents to the Lowy Institute's annual poll in April said they didn't have faith in him to act responsibly – Albanese needs Trump to stick to the Aukus nuclear submarines agreement and to pushback on China's expansionist approach to the Indo-Pacific region. The same poll found 80% strongly want the US alliance to stay in place, evidence of Albanese's delicate balancing act – don't bow to Trump, but don't lose the US either. A dressing-down from a US president, even one not beloved by Australians, would probably play badly for a prime minister showing signs of growing confidence on the world stage. Even if he managed a successful visit with LBJ back in 1968, John Gorton returned to Australia exhausted and downcast. He said Johnson was too demanding in private and had failed to give any security guarantees on the situation in Asia. Like Gorton before him, Albanese might do well to stroke Trump's ego, remain a diplomatic small target and make it home in one piece.
Reuters
a day ago
- Reuters
Australia PM rules out relaxing biosecurity rules ahead of Trump meeting
SYDNEY, June 6 (Reuters) - Australia will not relax its strict biosecurity rules during tariff negotiations with the United States, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Friday ahead of a potential meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the G7 summit this month. Australia has restricted the entry of U.S. beef since 2003 due to the detection of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, known as mad cow disease, but it exports beef worth A$4 billion ($2.6 billion) annually to the United States, its largest market. "We will not change or compromise any of the issues regarding biosecurity - full stop, exclamation mark. It's simply not worth it," Albanese told ABC Radio. Trump in April singled out Australian beef, while announcing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports. Years of dry weather have shrunk U.S. cattle numbers to their lowest since the 1950s, but Australia, with a herd swelled by wet weather, is flush with supply, offering lower prices and lean cuts that the U.S. lacks. A report in the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper on Friday, citing unidentified government officials, said Australian authorities were reviewing whether to allow entry of beef products from cattle raised in Mexico and Canada but slaughtered in the U.S., as the Trump administration has demanded. But Albanese said no such concessions were being considered as those imports still posed risks to the Australian cattle industry. Australia is one of the few countries the U.S. normally runs a trade surplus with, a point often made by Australian officials and lawmakers arguing against Trump's tariffs. The country recorded a rare trade surplus with the U.S. in January after gold exports surged due to global economic uncertainties. Albanese said he was looking forward to a "face-to-face" meeting with Trump but did not specify when that would happen. "We've had three conversations that have been constructive, they've been polite and they've been respectful. That's the way I deal with people," Albanese said. "There are obviously issues, not between Australia and the United States. It's not like Australia has been singled out for any particularly egregious treatment. It's across the board." ($1 = 1.5368 Australian dollars)
