China-to-US Freight Rates ‘No Longer Surging'—Is it All Downhill from Here?

Yahoo

18 hours ago

After a series of weeks which saw trans-Pacific container prices double in the wake of a tariff truce between the U.S. and China, ocean freight rates may have already hit their summer seasonal peak.
According to Hong Kong-based container shipping researcfh firm Linerlytica, rates have peaked after ocean carriers rolled back general rate increases (GRIs) from the previous two weeks as trans-Pacific capacity injections have still exceeded market demand.
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A weekly update on Monday indicated that carriers are 'struggling to fill the ships' on the pathway to Los Angeles-Long Beach.
Drewry's World Container Index (WCI), which saw ocean freight rates skyrocket 117 percent on the trans-Pacific trade lane in the four-week span prior to June 5, experienced a paltry 1 percent weekly jump to $5,914 per 40-foot container. The Shanghai-to-New York route had a major stabilization as well, shooting up 96 percent in a four-week span before inching up 2 percent to $7,285 per container.
Overall, week-over-week totals across the WCI remained stable at $3,543 per 40-foot container.
'Global container shipping has addressed short-term capacity shortages and spot rates are now no longer surging, which will come as a relief to shippers,' said Philip Damas, head of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors.
As carriers resumed suspended services and new carriers entered the market, Asia-to-West Coast ship capacity rose 16 percent month over month in June and is expected to increase another 8 percent in July, 'with far fewer cancelled sailings than in April/May,' Damas told Sourcing Journal.
However, while GRI hikes are a lever ocean carriers often pull to capitalize on a surge in cargo and increase freight rates, the increased capacity forced them to pull back a week after taking effect.
'The June 1 GRI was fully implemented but failed to hold,' said Hua Joo Tan, co-founder of Linerlytica. 'Freight rates are dropping from their early June peak and will continue to fall back due to excess capacity as well as the absence of box shortages and port congestion. The mid-June GRI appears to be doomed for the same reasons.'
According to a Thursday weekly update from Flexport, carriers have fully withdrawn planned June 15 GRIs for West Coast destinations. On the East and Gulf Coasts, GRIs remain in effect.
Not everyone is anticipating such a quick fall, with Xeneta expecting an element of front-loading to still permeate throughout the original 90-day tariff rollback period.
Xeneta's chief analyst, Peter Sand, said that 'mid-high' spot rates—rates paid by shippers in the 75th-highest percentile of the spot market—were the first batch that needed to get goods into the U.S. immediately and refill inventory.
This cohort drove the sharpest rise in China-to-U.S. demand right after the rollback was announced May 12, he said.
'As we head into the second half of June, shippers benchmarking themselves against mid-low and average freight rates on the trans-Pacific headhaul will have to pay up as well,' Sand told Sourcing Journal. 'Still a tight market, but not tightening further to lift mid-high, as carriers are busy and soon done with bringing capacity back to the trans-Pacific trade lanes.'
Adding onto the uncertainty is the U.S.-China tariff situation itself, which is still up in the air despite the Trump administration's insistence that there will be no more changes.
Although representatives from the U.S. and China came to a new trade deal on Wednesday that establishes a combined duty rate of 55 percent on imports from China, there have been scant details surrounding the agreement. Additionally, neither Presidents Donald Trump or Xi Jinping have officially approved the deal.
'There are still a lot of moving parts on the tariff front and this is unlikely to be the end as far as China tariffs are concerned,' Tan told Sourcing Journal. 'The cargo volume trajectory will also depend on the rest of tariff discussions that are yet to be finalized.'
This refers to the other 90-day deadline for U.S. trade partners that were recipients of the reciprocal tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday it is 'highly likely' the July 9 deadline would be extended. But with these de-escalations occurring, rates are likely to go on a downward slope if demand for carrier space weakens.
'Looking ahead, the end of the 90-day tariff pause and the probable early end of the peak season are expected to cause another downcycle in demand, another need for ship capacity changes and another sharp fall in spot freight rates from July,' said Damas.