Revealed: Chilling threats by hostile states to our energy, food supply and way of life - as defence overhaul aims to get Britain 'war ready'
The Strategic Defence Review (SDR), published today, includes a chilling list of the potential effects on the UK's way of life. But, despite these threats, top brass are expected to save money.
The SDR, which has recommended an overhaul of the UK's Armed Forces, also lays bare Britain's overseas dependencies and threats.
In the event of war, Britain would be subject to attacks on its military bases at home and abroad, long-range drone and cruise missile sorties, cyber-attacks crippling national infrastructure and disruptions to economic interests and international trade routes.
The report reveals 95 per cent of the UK's data is carried by undersea cables that are vulnerable to attack, and Britain relies on imports for 46 per cent of its food.
It says: 'Undersea pipelines and data cables are critical for sustaining daily national life. The maritime domain is increasingly vulnerable. The Royal Navy must be prepared to deter maritime incidents similar to the sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and the cutting of undersea data cables in UK and international waters'.
In recent years as much as 77 per cent of the UK's gas imports have come from Norway. So, if the Nordic state was compromised, Britain's energy supplies would be cut.
The SDR, written by former Nato secretary-general Lord Robertson, retired general Sir Richard Barrons and Russia expert Fiona Hill, was described today as the most profound change to defence in 150 years.
It sets out technologies which are redefining warfare such as artificial intelligence, robotics, enhanced precision and directed energy weapons, hypersonic missiles, space-based capabilities, quantum mechanics, cyber threats and engineering biology.
And while for centuries the Royal Navy and the Army, and more recently the Royal Air Force have trained and equipped themselves separately, they are to come together as never before.
Though the plan stops short of a full merger, the services will effectively be moulded into an 'Integrated Force'.
The SDR argues this will be more efficient than maintaining a 'siloed' Army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force.
It says: 'In practice, the single services have largely evolved separately in terms of design, equipment and training.
'The result is a force that joins up only on the battlefield. The effectiveness of the Armed Forces on operations is determined by the capabilities available to each service at the point of deployment, rather than the result of joined up planning and delivery.'
The weakening of the Army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force as independent entities, which is likely to trigger fierce debate, is reinforced by the language of the report.
The separate services are scarcely mentioned whereas the newly raised Integrated Force is referred to repeatedly.
This afternoon, Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge described the SDR as an 'empty wish list due to funding constraints'.
He told the House of Commons: 'Today, the Prime Minister was unable to give a date when 3 per cent [of GDP] would be reached, because the Treasury hasn't approved the plan.
'For the Treasury to do so, it will have to feature billions of pounds of cuts from existing MoD programmes.
'The SDR has deferred all the big decisions on existing capabilities. The terrible shame of this SDR unravelling is that this was an extraordinary opportunity to overhaul our armed forces, in a world of growing threats.
'For the past year the Treasury has used the SDR to effectively put MOD procurement on hold, absolutely shameful when we need to rearm at pace.
'Our Armed Forces deserve better. This Government has produced a damp squib SDR that is overdue, under-funded and underwhelming.'
Sections of the SDR are devoted to domains, land, sea, air, cyber and space, rather than by service.
As part of its contribution to the land domain, the SDR expects the Army to deliver 'a ten-fold increase in lethality'.
But this will have to be achieved with just a small uplift in the size of the Army – from 73,000 to 76,000 regular soldiers as the settled size of the full-time ranks. The report concedes there is a 'strong case for a small increase in regular numbers when funding allows'.
The SDR suggests fewer paratroopers will be trained to jump. The Parachute Regiment has three full-time battalions, but according to the report, 'parachute capability and capacity should remain focused on specialists and a single battalion group'.
For its part, the Royal Air Force will provide the 'Integrated Force's quickest means of striking targets'.
The report calls on the RAF to become more efficient and use civilian planes when a task 'does not require military capability'.
While as the Mail revealed last week, the RAF will 'invest in autonomous collaborative platforms (ACPs)' to protect legacy aircraft and vehicles.
The Red Arrows display team will have to find new jets as the report recommends replacing the Hawk T1 and T2 planes with a 'cost-effective fast jet trainer'.
Disturbingly, the Royal Navy is expected to move towards being 'cheaper'. The report adds the service should 'explore alternative approaches to delivering a balanced and cost-effective fleet'.
Admirals are expected to use 'commercial vessels' for transportation in non-contested environments and to share logistical challenges with allies.
The UK's £7billion combined cost aircraft carriers are expected to become more versatile, with adaptions to ensure long-range missiles can be fired from their decks and more uncrewed aircraft.
Sea drones will also take up a multitude of roles that are currently undertaken by sailors, such as mine hunting.
The SDR emphasises homeland defence and the Euro-Atlantic over expeditionary warfare or ambitions to shape the global security environment.
This represents a marked change from the advocation of a 'Pacific tilt' in the UK's military posture as recently as 2021.
The SDR has made 62 recommendations which government ministers have pledged to accept in full.
It was designed to prepare this country to engage against an adversary such as Russia in this decade.
It stresses the importance of the UK's contribution to Nato. In future, all aspects of preparation for conflict, such as training and procurement, will be predicated on the needs of the defence alliance.
On technology, the review says advantage on the battlefield will not come from a single technological advance but from the combination of existing capabilities and a range of emerging technologies that include:
Artificial Intelligence, machine learning and data science
The review says these technologies will improve the quality and speed of decision-making and operational effectiveness for Britain's military, its allies and its enemies.
Robotics and autonomy
The battlefield of the present, in Ukraine, is dominated by uncrewed and autonomous capabilities. For example, Ukraine's devastating attack on Russian airfields was delivered by drones. Uncrewed platforms will also integrate with manned aircraft and vehicles to generate mass and lethality.
Enhanced precision weapons
These mean targets can be struck with greater accuracy from ever greater ranges.
Directed energy weapons
Systems such as the UK's Dragon Fire, a world-leading laser ground to air system being developed by boffins at Porton Down, Wiltshire, can save millions of pounds in expenditure on ordnance systems. Their accuracy also means they reduce collateral damage.
Hypersonic missiles
The UK is developing rocket systems which travel at over five times the speed of sound, which may offer greater range and ability to evade defences
Space-based capabilities
The SDR says approaching 20 per cent of GDP is reliant on satellite services, making space a critical national infrastructure sector and the site of growing international competition. Major disruption to these satellites would cost the UK economy an estimated £1billion a day. Damage to the UK's satellites would also cripple missile systems and communications on the battlefield. The SDR calls on the Government to urgently develop the 'resilience of its military space systems'. It suggests the purchase of earth-based sensors and counterspace systems, but without providing details.
Quantum
Advances in quantum computing offer the potential for allies and adversaries to break encryption, making secure communications more challenging. Quantum technologies also have the potential to reduce dependency on satellite-based GPS which is vulnerable to interference and hacking.
Cyber threats
The report warns cyber threats will become harder to mitigate as technology evolves, with government departments, military hardware and communications increasingly vulnerable.
Engineering biology
Advances in wellbeing, bionic enhancement and supplementation could enhance the performance of soldiers in combat. The report says there are also possibilities for new energetic and explosive materials, as well as avenues for enormous harm in the shape of new pathogens and other weapons of mass destruction.
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