Redistricting in Indiana: Republicans raise questions, Democrats have limited options if special session called

Chicago Tribune

17 hours ago

As Texas Democrats eye an end to their nearly two-week walkout to block Republican efforts there to redistrict, a growing number of Indiana Republicans have been voicing questions and concerns about redistricting in Indiana.
The Texas Democrats announced Thursday they will return provided that Texas Republicans end a special session and California releases its own redrawn map proposal, both of which were expected to happen Friday.
Democrats did not say what day they might return.
Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott still intends to push through new maps that would give the GOP five more winnable seats before next year's midterm elections. Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows has said that if Democrats don't return the next time lawmakers reconvene on Friday, the session will end and the governor will immediately benign another one.
Abbott put redistricting on the agenda at the urging of President Donald Trump, who wants to shore up Republicans' narrow House majority and avoid a repeat of his first presidency, when the 2018 midterms restored Democrats to a House majority that blocked his agenda and twice impeached him.
It is unusual for redistricting to take place in the middle of the decade and typically occurs once at the beginning of each decade to coincide with the census.
Last week, Vice President JD Vance visited Indiana to meet with Gov. Mike Braun and other state Republican leaders to discuss redistricting Indiana's nine congressional districts. Braun told the Indiana Capital Chronicle Tuesday that he hasn't yet decided if he'll call a special session for redistricting, but said he and state leaders are 'considering it seriously' as they wait to see what comes out of Texas.
'I think mostly what happens here is going to depend on where Texas goes, because I think they've got five seats in play,' Braun said.
The Indianapolis Star reported Friday that Trump invited Indiana Republican lawmakers to the White House for an Aug. 26 meeting. Molly Swigart, a spokeswoman for Senate Republicans, said the meeting was scheduled 'to discuss President Trump's agenda.'
Indiana University Professor Emeritus of Political Science Marjorie Hershey said the effort to redistrict is 'a power politics move' because the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives is 'as narrow as it could be.'
In the last 100 years, there have been two midterm elections where the party that holds the White House hasn't lost seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, Hershey said. If Republicans lose a handful of seats, they would lose control of the House, she said.
'That would essentially mean the end of President Trump's dominance of the political agenda. He's gotten where he has as a result of having complete control of the Congress,' Hershey said. 'In order to maintain his edge in the House of Representatives in 2026, Trump wants a cushion for Republican House members because he's afraid that otherwise he's almost guaranteed to lose the House.'
Historically, redistricting has occasionally occurred between censuses, Hershey said, but it goes against precedent.
'This is not normal in American politics,' Hershey. 'It's not the way that the constitution was written. It's not the way the supreme court has structured election law over time.'
Indiana Republican response
Indiana was last redistricted in 2021, which left Congressional Republicans with seven seats and Democrats two seats.
'It's not as though Indiana isn't already redistricted in a highly partisan way to favor Republicans, it is,' Hershey said. 'Even squeezing out one more Republican district in Texas or in Indiana might save President Trump from becoming as much of a lame duck as he otherwise would in 2026.'
Indiana's First District, held by Democrat U.S. Rep. Frank Mrvan, D-Highland, would be the most under threat for redistricting because it's become more Republican over time — though still Democratically held, Hershey said.
The First Congressional District remains Indiana's most competitive seat. In 2022, Mrvan won nearly 53% of the vote against Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green. In 2024, Mrvan saw a small increase in the number of votes to just over 53% when he won against Republican Randy Niemeyer.
The problem for Republicans with redistricting the First District, Hershey said, would be Democrats from the First District would be moved into other districts, which could make the other districts more competitive for Democratic candidates.
'Sometimes the majority party in a state gets a little too greedy and thinks, 'we might have a shot at this one additional seat,' and then they end up losing the seat next door and not winning the seat that they had hoped to gain,' Hershey said.
Aaron Dusso, an associate professor of political science at Indiana University Indianapolis, said he hasn't seen an appetite from Indiana Republicans to redistrict because of the risk that it will make safe Republican congressional districts more competitive.
State Rep. Ed Soliday, R-Valparaiso, said party leadership has reached out to him to gauge his thoughts on redistricting Indiana. Soliday said he told the leadership 'show me the facts, tell me the unintended consequences, then I'll tell you how I'll vote.'
'I haven't seen anyone show me about how this would work,' Soliday said. 'I have a lot of questions before I jump on board with this.'
Sen. Rick Niemeyer, R-Lowell, said he's discussed redistricting with his colleagues but he's still thinking about his position on redistricting.
'I'm not committing one way or the other,' Niemeyer said. 'We're looking at it and have not made a decision yet. That's where I'm at.'
State Rep. Mike Aylesworth, R-Hebron, said the state legislature 'did a good job' redistricting in 2021, but he's waiting to see what the leadership decides about a special session for redistricting.
'I don't think it's necessary, but we'll wait and see what the caucus says,' Aylesworth said. 'I'm hesitant to change things, but we'll see what leadership says.'
State Sen. Dan Dernulc, R-Highland, said he's spoken with leadership about redistricting, but that he needs more facts and the 'why' of redistricting.
'I don't see a need for it. I don't want to say yes or no, we're a work in progress on it,' Dernulc said.
Indiana Democratic redistricting maneuvers
In the Indiana House and Senate, two-thirds of members — or 67 House members and 34 senators – have to be present to call a quorum, according to each chamber's rules.
In the House, Republicans hold 70 seats to Democrats 30. In the Senate, Republicans hold 40 seats to the Democrats' 10 seats. Indiana Republicans have enough members to call a quorum.
Indiana Democrats 'wouldn't have a lot of options,' Dusso said, other than short-term delay tactics, like requiring readings of the whole redistricting bill or talking for long periods of time on the floor.
Democrats can talk about the issue publicly to try to rally support from voters to put pressure on Republicans to not hold a special session on redistricting.
'It doesn't really stop anything from happening, it just slows it down,' Dusso said.
The best move, Dusso said, would be for Democrats and lobbyists to talk with Braun now to persuade him not to call a special session.
'I think that's where they can win. Once it's called, I don't think they have a chance,' Dusso said. 'If you can get Braun to relent, I think that's where they're going to have their success.'
If redistricting were to occur in Indiana, Hershey said it's likely that lawsuits would be filed.
'I'm sure that the Democrats will fight as hard as they can because there's a point at which the party that's trying to take this unfair advantage just starts to look bad,' Hershey said. 'It's a game of chicken, and we'll have to see who it is who veers away first.'
State Sen. Rodney Pol Jr., D-Chesteron, said it's 'problematic' that President Trump has been pressuring Republican states to redistrict in the middle of a census. Trump's decision to do so shows he's scared to face the voters given the policies he's passed.
'He's afraid of his own base,' Pol said. 'It's not how our democracy works.'
Given Indiana's Republican supermajority, Pol said Indiana Democrats couldn't leave the state to delay the vote. If a special session were called, Pol said the Democrats would attend and voice their opposition from the House and Senate floors.
'The only thing that we have is our voice,' Pol said. 'We're going to have to show up.'