Hamilton byelection win is vindication of Scottish Labour's doorstep strategy
Labour's victory in Hamilton is both a surprise and a vindication – a demonstration that in a byelection, shocks can take different forms.
It is a surprise to those of us in the outside world who felt certain of a Scottish National party victory, who saw Labour support plummet in the Scottish opinion polls, and the same polls showing Reform's steeply rising.
The question became: would Labour scrape home in second, behind an experienced and personable SNP candidate, or even endure the humiliation of coming third behind a resurgent Reform. After all, it seemed Scottish Labour's candidate, Davy Graham, was ill-equipped, so much so his party refused to put him up for a live television debate.
But for Scottish Labour's strategists this is vindication. In a very clear way, this demonstrates the differences between what some call the 'air war' – the contest taking place on social media and the airwaves, of rows over 'racist' adverts and defeats in other contests, and the 'ground war', the dull and relentless grind of sending out activists to doorsteps, of leaflet delivering and face-to-face engagement.
While Reform was ploughing a record sum, up to £15,000, into a single advert wrongly and unjustifiably accusing Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour's leader, of prioritising Pakistanis, Labour canvassers were going door to door, or forensically using their social media advertising spend to target voters on YouTube and Facebook.
In the final phase of the campaign last week, Labour strategists were quietly insisting their canvassing told a different story. While their data showed more people were voting Reform than ever before, with their vote boosted by the Runcorn byelection victory in May, most of those came from Conservatives, they argued.
The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse byelection, called after the untimely death of the popular SNP MSP Christine McKelvie, was certainly a three-horse race, said one senior Labour figure. 'People are annoyed with us', they acknowledged. 'But I genuinely don't believe that the Reform vote is the size that people are speculating about.'
Scottish Labour believed it had begun the contest in April at about 20% – a figure close to the party's national polling. Last week, Labour doorstep returns were putting its support at nearer 35%.
'I'm walking around quite happy,' the source said. 'People have written us off and people have made a mistake. But it's conditional on getting people out to vote.'
Some voters have been visited four times by Labour canvassers and politicians: Labour MPs and MSPs flooded the constituency – in part because the UK party, from Keir Starmer downwards, knew they could not afford further humiliation at the hands of Reform.
It seemed in the final days of the campaign that Reform's 'air war' was seriously wounding Labour's campaign: Farage revealed on Monday that a Scottish Labour councillor, a young man who had previously been chair of Glasgow University's Labour students group, had defected to Reform. That did shock the party.
But in the event, the ground war won – to the great relief of a UK party that has just been pummelled by Reform in Runcorn and England's recent council elections. 'I think we have the better field operation and we've been around people's doors,' the strategist said. 'We're hungry for the votes and people see that.'
This victory has sent a significant signal for Scotland's political parties with less than a year to go before next May's Holyrood elections.
While the national polls repeatedly put Scottish Labour at 19%, with Reform only one point behind, and the SNP in the mid-30s, election campaigns are different. Labour's electoral machine – the machine that won a landslide on a 34% share of the vote in last year's general election, remains formidable.
For John Swinney, the SNP's leader and first minister, this result has demonstrated his party has now to reequip itself by greatly improving its campaign machinery, its data-gathering and its strategies. The SNP was once the UK's most formidable electoral machine but, based on this byelection result, that seems no longer to be the case.
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Sky News
an hour ago
- Sky News
Scotland's Labour weren't the only winners in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election
In the centre of Hamilton, stands the now derelict Bairds department store - a reminder of the past and a sign of the political present. Outside, people speak of a time when the high street was busy and the area buzzing. As in other areas of the country, the blame for this sense of decline is placed at the door of the established parties. "The SNP have done nothing for Hamilton… we need someone to do something and I'm not sure Labour will do it", said one woman stopping for a chat outside Belles Tearoom. Apathy once again prevails. But just over seven thousand people came up with a solution unusual for Scottish politics on Thursday. Nigel Farage. This by-election signals the arrival of Reform as an electoral force north of the border. From a standing start and with little in the way of campaigning infrastructure, the party finished just three percentage points behind the SNP. As he's become accustomed to in England, Nigel Farage ate up Tory votes here. But that does not account for the party's surge. "We took votes off all the parties… there's a huge surge of young people from the SNP, particularly young men, coming to us," said Thomas Kerr, a local Reform councillor and campaigner. For the party, this is explained by independence becoming less of a determinant of electoral support - and domestic issues like the cost of living and the NHS taking priority instead. It's just one factor that's causing traditional political axioms to be scrambled, chief among them - the assumption that Scots will never vote for Nigel Farage. His party can now be confident of picking up their first MSPs in next May's parliamentary elections. So for the established parties, this may all mean a strategic rethink. What is the politically expedient position on immigration in Scotland now? What of the socially liberal identity issues previously championed by the SNP? But there's a more fundamental tension, too. 2:57 Both the SNP and Labour ran campaigns casting this by-election as a two-horse race between them and Reform. The result clearly shows a three-way splintering. That could get messy in the world of coalitions that often comes from the proportionate voting system in Holyrood. For now though, Labour will take the win and try to use it to turn round their flagging ratings. This is no definite inflection point, though. Labour sources say the sophistication of their digital campaign in this race played a big role, with others pointing to the pull of a popular local candidate. But it's also worth remembering that before the SNP surge of 2015, this section of West Central Scotland would have been regarded as a Labour stronghold. It was painted red again last year, with convincing wins in the general election. So on paper, this could have been a tidying-up exercise for Labour. It speaks volumes about the party's wider standing that the win was so unexpected. SNP leader John Swinney may have a point when he says the close result shows his party making progress after the pummelling they took here just 11 months ago. There aren't any runner-up prizes in politics, though. Six hundred votes have denied the SNP a much-needed political shot in the arm and taught them they cannot just cruise to victory on the back of disdain for Sir Keir Starmer. Back in Hamilton, and Bairds is not the only monument of the past here. For the SNP, the town stands as an emblem of the electoral successes of yesteryear. A shock victory by Winnie Ewing in a 1967 by-election signalled the party's entry on to the political stage and triggered a rethink among their establishment rivals. It's an irony likely not lost on many in Scottish politics that Reform has used this slice of the central belt to do exactly the same thing.
Daily Mail
an hour ago
- Daily Mail
Findlay issues apology for Tory failures after Hamilton by-election vote blow
Russell Findlay has apologised directly to voters for Conservative failures in office after his party came a distant fourth in the Hamilton by-election. The Scottish Tory leader refused to 'peddle the usual excuses' after the 'disappointing result' in the three-way marginal. 'I will be straight - this by-election delivered a harsh verdict on my party's previous period in government,' he said. 'Voters still feel badly let down by the previous UK Conservative government.' The Conservatives came third in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse at the 2021 Holyrood election with a 17.5 per cent share of the vote. But on Thursday it plunged to six per cent, just above the threshold needed to save its deposit. At the same time, Reform went from a standing start to 26.1 per cent, coming just 869 votes behind the SNP and 1,471 behind Labour. Tory insiders claimed some of their support backed Labour in a 'tactical Unionist vote' to help defeat the SNP. But with polls showing up to a quarter of Tory voters at the general election now backing Reform, many local Tories undoubtedly backed Reform's Ross Lambie. Writing in today's Mail, Mr Findlay said Tory candidate Richard Nelson was 'respected and hard-working' but many local people 'didn't feel we deserved their vote because over 14 years in power, we lost our way'. The West Scotland MSP said: 'I want to say directly to everyone who feels that way that I am listening, I get it and I understand how you feel. 'My party let you down in government and we accept responsibility for our mistakes.' On a more positive note, Mr Findlay said the by-election had also exposed how 'vulnerable and beatable' the SNP was under John Swinney. 'The era of damaging and divisive Nationalist rule can be brought to an end in 2026 and our party will play a pivotal part in doing so,' he promised. 'There are vast areas of Scotland where only we can beat the SNP. 'If we work hard, demonstrate to people that we've changed and show that we're ready to represent their interests, we can send John Swinney packing. What a prize that would be.' Kemi Badenoch insisted the Conservatives were still the main opposition to Labour despite her party sinking to fourth place in Hamilton. Reform also gained 677 seats in last month's English local elections as the Tories lost 674. Keir Starmer has said he now regard Nigel Farage's party as his main rivals at Westminster, despite it having only five MPs, because of its strong position in the polls. But Ms Badenoch dismissed Reform as a 'protest party' and called the claim that it was the real opposition 'nonsense'. Describing Reform as 'another left-wing party', she said: 'What they're trying to do is talk this situation into existence. Labour is going to be facing the Conservative Party at the next election and we're going to get them out.' Recent polls have put Reform well ahead of Labour on Westminster voting intention, with the Conservatives third and the Lib Dems close behind them. However the next general election is still four years away and Reform has yet to prove its credentials in power since it won control of a dozen English councils in May. The party has also been blighted by infighting, including the dramatic resignation of chair Zia Yusuf on Thursday after a public spat with Runcorn MP Sarah Pochin about burkas. Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said support for the Tories had never 'fallen so heavily' in a Holyrood by-election. He told the Telegraph: 'The Conservatives are at risk of recording their worst-ever performance in a Scottish Parliament election next year and could find themselves occupying a much diminished space in the Holyrood chamber as only the fourth-largest party.'
Daily Mail
an hour ago
- Daily Mail
How could one man give the nod to a brash £40m tourist trap in the best loved beauty spot in Scotland?
It is possibly the most unpopular tourism proposal in Scottish planning history. People living nearby are overwhelmingly against it. Even Conservative and Green politicians for a united front in condemning it. The number of objections from across the country and beyond is unprecedented. More than 155,000 people have said no thank-you to a leisure resort on the banks of Loch Lomond, perhaps the nation's most jealously guarded scenic treasure. But there is a number still more extraordinary than that. It is the number of people who, ultimately, decided whether a plan by a Yorkshire company called Flamingo Land to plonk a £43.5 million complex with hotels, lodges, restaurants, a waterpark and monorail in Scotland oldest national park should be given the nod. That number is just one. The lone decision maker was David Buylla, who goes by the title of principal reporter for the Scottish Government Planning and Environmental Appeals Decision. Unelected, his job is to field appeals from unsuccessful applicants and rule on whether – in his professional opinion – elected bodies answerable to voters made the right call in refusing them. If he thinks they did not, he has the power to turn their ruling on its head. Last month Mr Buylla delivered his verdict on the whether a unanimous decision by Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park (LLTNP) to reject the holiday resort on the land it is there to protect was the correct one. He has indicated it was not. In his view, providing Flamingo Land satisfies a series of conditions, they should go ahead and build the leisure park that holds the Scottish planning record for most objections. Unsurprisingly, the shock reversal has prompted a furious outcry. Demonstrators made their displeasure known outside the Scottish Parliament last week. Scottish Labour's deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie, the local MSP, has called it an 'affront to democracy'. Ross Greer of the Scottish Greens says it is an 'anti-democratic outrage' and that the approval of the 'mega-resort' will be 'deeply damaging to our national reputation.' And SNP ministers? What do they say on the denouement to Scotland's most railed-against planning application ever? They merely assert that the 'expert' has spoken. On any analysis the Flamingo Land saga – some ten years in the making – raises serious questions about the planning system, its accountability to the public, its apparent democratic deficit – not to mention why a Scottish Government reporter's expertise trumps that of the raft of experts who say the resort is a non-starter. But the affair is messier and murkier than that. Even more uncomfortable questions are now emerging over a planning fiasco which critics say leaves the government hopelessly compromised. Why, for example, should its appointed planning officer's conclusion be trusted over the recommendation of the government's own environmental watchdog, Sepa, which says the resort, known as Lomond Banks, should be ruled out because it breaches flood protection rules? And what to make of the fact that the land on which the resort would be built is currently owned by the Scottish Government's economic development wing, Scottish Enterprise, which plans to sell plot to Flamingo Land on approval of its application? According to Dame Jackie and others involved in the saga from the outset, the holiday resort proposal arose following government instructions to Scottish Enterprise to 'realise your assets' to raise capital. Having chosen Flamingo Land as its preferred bidder, Scottish Enterprise 'courted' the developer, says the Labour politician. Others go further. Former Conservative councillor Sally Page claims the English company was not only 'encouraged' by both the Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise but that planners on LLTNP 'guided' the developer through the process. She says: 'Flamingo Land have spent a six-figure sum preparing this application. They can probably show enough evidence to support the case that Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Government and LLTNP encouraged them all along. 'It is probable that a KC would be able to put together the evidence and sue either the Scottish Government, Scottish Enterprise or LLTNP for wasting their time, should it not go through.' In the end, she suggests, it was 'easier for the LLTNP locally to turn it down and let the Scottish Government's faceless reporter make the difficult decision.' In a nutshell she is arguing that the planning body was acutely aware that any decision they made to refuse the application would be challenged, taken out of their hands and possibly overturned – but they, at least, would avoid taking the heat for it. A sorry reflection, many might conclude, on a planning system which, at the appeal stage, upends democracy and removes political accountability. But where does this leave a Scottish Government which finds itself on both sides of the equation? Its own agency is the landowner which stands to profit from the sale of it to a developer. Its environmental watchdog is a key voice in opposing the development. And yet another arm of government, its appeals division, is the ultimate decision maker – reaching conclusions against the backdrop of possible legal action against its employer. In the circumstances, can it be tenable that no one with Ministerial responsibility – and accountability to voters – is prepared to involve themselves? Or is the fact that Scottish Government fingerprints are all over this almighty planning mess already the very reason why Ministers now refuse to touch it? Dame Jackie tells the Mail: 'Scottish Enterprise, the economic development arm of the SNP Government, has courted Lomond Banks for close to 10 years. It is therefore little wonder that SNP Ministers don't want to call it in.' The proposal, critics point out, is to build a holiday resort which is entirely out of keeping with the natural beauty of a visitor attraction of profound national importance. It will put 250 extra cars an hour onto the already congested A82, bring minimal economic benefit for the West Dunbartonshire community of Balloch because the resort is self-contained, offer mainly low-paid jobs and destroy ancient woodland. It was opposed not only by 155,000 objectors but by Sepa, the National Trust for Scotland, Ramblers Scotland, community councils and the Woodland Trust. Appalled by the lone planning officer's finding against the weight of such considerable expert opinion, the latter's advocacy manager Simon Ritchie states: 'The loss of ancient woodland to a development anywhere is shameful. To see it destroyed in a national park beggars belief.' And yet, it would seem, the Scottish Government is content that a lone operative has dealt with the matter and sees no reason for Ministers to dirty their hands with the fall-out. Mr Greer, whose party was in a power-sharing agreement with the SNP while much of the planning row raged, is among the most vociferous critics of the Scottish Government on this issue. He insists democratically accountable Ministers must have the final say when an application is of national importance. 'In the case of Flamingo Land, the Planning Minister and the First Minister are hiding behind officials, despite this decision effectively overturning key protections in the national planning framework agreed by Parliament.' He adds: 'Ministers should use their powers of recall when it's in the national interest. That is why the mechanism is available to them. Hiding behind officials sows mistrust towards our institutions. In our democracy, the buck stops with those who are elected.' Dame Jackie, meanwhile, describes the reporter's conclusions as 'really bizarre' and says that, in any case, it is 'not acceptable' for one unelected appointee, however experienced, to be free to overturn the decision of an elected body on an issue of such magnitude, There should be set criteria which trigger ministerial involvement in planning decisions she says. 'It's the lack of consistency, it's the race to get this through – and it's ministers refusing to do anything about calling it in because it is a political hot potato. 'It is an affront to democracy that this decision has been made by a single reporter, when less contentious applications have been called in previously. She adds: 'I want somebody who is democratically elected to look at this properly, and that's what I think Ministers should be doing.' The Scottish Government does have form for calling in planning decisions it deems of national importance. Back in 2008, Ministers stepped in and obliged Donald Trump whose plan to build a golf resort on the Menie Estate was refused by Aberdeenshire Council. The future US president's project was duly given the nod – resulting in years of controversy. Seventeen years on, there is zero Scottish Government appetite for ministerial involvement in the long-running and highly complex Lomond Banks row. Indeed, public finance minister Ivan McKee claims it is not even appropriate for him to comment on the application because it 'remains live'. Technically that may be the case – but only because the Scottish Government reporter has given Flamingo Land a deadline of six months to satisfy 49 conditions and reach a legally binding agreement with the national park. Yet he did feel free to say that, in view of the 'very technical' issues in the case and the high level of public interest it was appropriate that 'objective planning judgement' was applied. 'For that reason, I do not intend to recall this appeal'. He added: 'The expert in this case is the reporter, who is tasked with going through the planning regulations as they apply, looking at the evidence in depth.' Nor was Mr Swinney any more keen to step in to 'save' Loch Lomond. 'The appeal remains live. Members have to understand that it would not be appropriate for me to comment.' The democratic deficit at the heart of Scotland's planning appeal system is, of course, not a new discovery for many. Rural dwellers who oppose the imposition of wind farms on their doorsteps have highlighted it for years. They win the first battle when the local authority rejects the plan – then lose the second when a lone Scottish Government reporter uphold the appeal. Mr Greer's suggestion, then, that the Lomond Banks case represents an 'anti-democratic outrage' strikes some as a bit rich. Graham Lang, the chairman of Scotland Against Spin, says: 'We have no sympathy for him or his party who have chosen to ignore that the same scenario has been played out on an almost weekly basis for the past two decades in rural communities throughout Scotland. 'Mr Greer must be aware of this but has never complained when his beloved green energy developments are granted planning permission against the wishes of the majority of local residents.' For his part, the Green MSP argues these installations are about 'keeping the lights on across the country'. 'However, no one could argue that Flamingo Land is of national importance to Scotland.' The lone planning official's ruling was certainly welcomed in some quarters. Lomond Banks development director Jim Paterson said the company was 'delighted' by the decision, adding: 'As we look beyond today's decision, we remain committed to being a strong and valued contributor to the local economy and we look forward to progressing with our proposals as we now consider detailed planning.' Meanwhile Friends of Loch Lomond and the Trossachs, a group which has long campaigned in favour of the resort, said the reporter had 'resoundingly demolished' the arguments for opposing it. Responding to the allegations put to it by the Mail, including the claim that Flamingo Land was 'courted', leaving the Scottish Government conflicted, a spokesman said: 'These claims are untrue. The independent reporter is an experienced planning professional who provides an objective planning judgement.' Will the Scottish Parliament and the 155,000 who campaigned against Flamingo Land accept that answer? Or will they drag democratically accountable Ministers, kicking and screaming, into the spotlight? The last chapter in a story the SNP government are anxious to close the book on may not yet be written.
