Iga Świątek and Carlos Alcaraz should be obvious US Open favorites
En route to her first Cincinnati Open title ever, Świątek didn't drop a single set (!) while also becoming the first Polish player ever to win the event. Meanwhile, Alcaraz may have been less dominant on the men's side, but he still won the tournament to cap a run this year that features seven straight finals appearances (with five wins). Right now, it would be impossible to overstate the elite form both the Polish and Spanish superstars find themselves in.
While anything can happen when you have competition like Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff, among others, for the women, and the relentless Jannik Sinner for the men, recent Cincinnati history says tennis bettors should intently focus their energy on Świątek and Alcaraz as the favorites in Queens.
Why?
Aside from the groove both Świątek and Alcaraz are in, each of the last four Cincinnati Open winners (women and men) in 2023 and 2024 all went on to win that ensuing iteration of the US Open. In 2023, it was Gauff and Novak Djokovic. In 2024, it was Sabalenka and Sinner. And if recent history follows suit, that means Świątek and Alcaraz will likely both win the 2025 US Open.
(Note: The draw for both the women and men will be on Thursday, August 21. Świątek and Alcaraz are expected to be the respective No. 2 seeds. The singles tournament will officially start on Sunday, August 24.)
Oddsmakers with FanDuel seem to generally agree with this sentiment.
After a rough start to the year, Świątek (+310) is now basically neck and neck odds-wise with Sabalenka (+290), who is, again, the defending US Open champion. If anyone can unseat Sabalenka, it sure feels like Świątek is the most likely to do it.
Meanwhile, for the men, Alcaraz (+135) is also just behind the reigning champion in Sinner (+110).
However, that small gap might not necessarily be reflective of the results of the 2025 Cincinnati Open. Alcaraz and Sinner have already met in four separate finals this year, with Alcaraz coming out on top in three of them:
None of this should be any surprise, really.
For one, Świątek and Alcaraz are generational players who have seemingly become entranced and impossibly locked in as 2025 has worn on. That they've been especially dominant lately isn't a shock to anyone paying attention. For the other, in essence, we're talking about a top-notch warmup (Cincinnati) heading into the last Grand Slam tournament of the calendar year. You can ride a wave of momentum into the US Open if you excel in Cincinnati.
Feel free to place your money on whoever you want at this year's US Open. But the smart pre-tournament money will gravitate to Świątek and Alcaraz. And for good reason.
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