Miami-Dade's sagging condo market could be ‘next great crisis' as values drop
Real estate values on existing homes and commercial property grew about 7% countywide at the start of 2025, according to the June 1 report on taxable values across Miami-Dade. But when isolated only to existing condominiums, values dropped slightly from the start of 2024 — a decline of less than 1%, according to Property Appraiser Tomás Regalado.
'The condos are the next great crisis, because of a perfect storm,' Regalado said at a Monday press conference where he discussed the annual report from his office.
The first-term Republican said that recent state mandates on condo maintenance, more stringent certification rules and higher insurance costs are weighing on the condominium market and driving down demand from buyers.
Regalado's figures come from months of analysis by his office's staff to determine the worth of more than 900,000 properties across Miami-Dade and also how that value should be reflected on yearly property-tax bills.
The figures released from Regalado's office capture taxable value, which is a property's market value minus deductions and exemptions mandated by state law.
Released on Friday, the report showed an 8.5% increase in overall values across Miami-Dade. That includes existing structures and new construction in 2024. That's down from 10.7% growth last year and is the first single-digit gain since 2021, when the start of the COVID pandemic disrupted real estate sales.
'In a nutshell, the real estate market — after years of sometimes wild growth — appears to have stabilized,' Regalado said at the press conference.
His office didn't have detailed value statistics for condos in the county's 34 municipalities. But Regalado said some of the worst-performing condo markets were in Miami Shores, where values were down 6.6%, and in Coral Gables, with a 5% drop in condo values.
Also on the declining list: Aventura and North Bay Village, both down 4%; North Miami, down 3.4%; and South Miami, down 1.9%.
On the other side of the spectrum are markets where condo values continue to grow. West Miami, a tiny housing market with only 83 condominiums at the start of 2024, saw taxable values for condominiums spike 18% at the start of 2025. Condo values grew 12% in Opa-locka and 4% in Hialeah Gardens, according to figures Regalado shared.
The value declines are an average of each market, and only cover existing condos at the start of 2024. Condo units built last year are not part of the analysis, Regalado said.
Regalado's discouraging news for condo sellers — and encouraging figures for would-be buyers — reflect other signs of softness for the real estate market overall.
Miami and Tampa were the only metro areas to show slight home value declines in the last 20-city nationwide report from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, which tracks prices of single-family houses.
Sales of condos and townhomes were down 21% in April in Miami-Dade, according to the latest report from the Miami Association of Realtors. The median sales price of $445,000 was barely changed from a year ago — up just $1,000. Sales of single-family homes were down 11%, and prices were up 4%, to $680,000.
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