Gaza ceasefire faces hurdle but not collapsing yet, say analysts
Gaza's fragile five-week truce faces a major hurdle with Israel's refusal to release Palestinian prisoners, but analysts say the ceasefire is likely to hold as Washington pushes for its extension.
"It's actually the most complicated crisis since the beginning of the ceasefire," Palestinian affairs expert Michael Milshtein of Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center told AFP.
While previous obstacles have tested the truce — including Hamas's threat to stop releasing hostages over alleged violations of the ceasefire including insufficient aid entering Gaza — Milshtein emphasised that "this time, it is even more complicated."
On Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suspended the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, after militants freed six hostages.
He condemned what he described as "humiliating ceremonies" by Hamas to free hostages in Gaza.
Palestinian militants had in the weeks prior paraded Israeli captives and later displayed black coffins containing deceased hostages on stage, sparking outrage across Israel.
Netanyahu went further on Sunday, warning that Israel was ready to "resume intense fighting at any moment" in the Palestinian territory.
'Buying time'
Hamas, in turn, warned that Israel's decision jeopardises the "entire agreement", stopping short of promising a return to fighting.
Yet, despite the escalating rhetoric, both sides appear intent on maintaining the ceasefire, according to Milshtein.
"Hamas really wants to implement phase one of the deal because on Saturday, the IDF (military) is meant to start leaving the Philadelphi Corridor," he noted, referring to a strategic strip that runs along Gaza's border with Egypt.
For Israel, Mairav Zonszein, an analyst from the International Crisis Group, said that Netanyahu was also stuck "in the same quagmire of trying to get hostages out while trying to get rid of the people holding those hostages".
"I think Netanyahu is kind of doing what he does best, which is dragging things out, buying time, trying to see if he can leverage withholding these prisoners," she said.
Zonszein noted that Israeli public opinion is putting pressure on Netanyahu to uphold the ceasefire, particularly as more hostages are seen "coming out alive".
Some analysts suggest that Israel's tougher stance is a calculated negotiating tactic ahead of upcoming talks for the second phase of truce.
"I don't think the ceasefire will collapse, it's not in Netanyahu's interest to have it collapse particularly as hostages are still being held in Gaza," said Sanam Vakil, director of UK-based think tank Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa programme.
"What we are witnessing now is political hardball, with them (Israel) trying to up the ante, or increase pressure on Hamas" ahead of the next phase, she said.
'Americans are key'
Phase two was "always going to be the hardest phase of the negotiations, made worse by the US position and posturing and by the fact there is no coherent Arab plan," she said.
Trump has stirred controversy by openly suggesting that the United States should take control of Gaza and expel its 2.4 million inhabitants to Egypt and Jordan.
But in recent days he has toned down his view and on Wednesday his special envoy Steve Witkoff is due to arrive in Israel to push forward the phase two talks.
"I think the key to this is the Americans, they will determine what takes place next," said Alan Mendoza, executive director of the UK-based Henry Jackson Society.
"Trump was the main factor in getting Netanyahu to agree to ceasefire," he said, noting that the deal was on the table previously but "Trump pushed it and both the Israelis and Hamas have agreed to its terms."
Despite Israel demanding Gaza be completely demilitarised and Hamas removed, while the militant group insisting on remaining in the territory after the war, Mendoza said that if Trump throws his weight behind phase two "then it will happen".
"It's a tough negotiation round and the odds are we will not be able to agree on a stage two plan but if the Arab states buck up… and take more of an interest given Trump's Gaza Riveria plans — there's a possibility we could do it."
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Gulf Today
an hour ago
- Gulf Today
France opens 'complicity in genocide' probes over blocked Gaza aid
French anti-terror prosecutors have opened probes into "complicity in genocide" and "incitement to genocide" after French-Israelis allegedly blocked aid intended for war-torn Gaza last year, they said on Friday. The two investigations, opened after legal complaints, were also to look into possible "complicity in crimes against humanity" between January and May 2024, the anti-terror prosecutor's office (PNAT) said. They are the first known probes in France to be looking into alleged violations of international law in Gaza, several sources with knowledge of the cases told AFP. In a separate case made public on the same day, the grandmother of two children with French nationality who were killed in an Israeli strike in Gaza has filed a legal complaint in Paris, accusing Israel of "genocide" and "murder," her lawyer said. The French judiciary has jurisdiction when French citizens are involved in such cases. Rights groups, lawyers and some Israeli historians have described the Gaza war as "genocide." A demonstrator holds a placard reading 'Stop links EU Israel now' during a gathering against a shipment of Eurolinks military equipment parts set to go to Israel, in Marseille. AFP In the first, the Jewish French Union for Peace (UFJP) and a French-Palestinian victim filed a complaint in November targeting alleged French members of hardline pro-Israel groups "Israel is forever" and "Tzav-9." It accused them of "physically" preventing the passage of trucks at border checkpoints controlled by the Israeli army. Lawyers for the plaintiffs, Damia Taharraoui and Marion Lafouge, told AFP they were happy a probe had been launched into the events in January 2024 — "a time when no-one wanted to hear anything about genocide." A source close to the case said prosecutors last month urged the investigation in relation to events at the Nitzana crossing point between Egypt and Israel, and the Kerem Shalom crossing from Israel into Gaza. A pedestrian walks past placards on the ground reading 'France profits off genocides to sell weapons' during a gathering against a shipment of military equipment parts set to be sent to Israel, in Marseille. AFP Around that time, hardline Israeli protesters — including friends and relatives of hostages held in Gaza — blocked aid lorries from entering the occupied Palestinian territory and forced them to turn back at Kerem Shalom. A second complaint from a group called the Lawyers for Justice in the Middle East (CAPJO) accused members of "Israel is forever" of having blocked aid trucks. It used photos, videos and public statements to back up its complaint. 'Genocide' complaint No court has so far concluded that the ongoing conflict is a genocide. But in rulings in January, March and May 2024, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the United Nations' highest judicial organ, told Israel to do everything possible to "prevent" acts of genocide during its military operations in Gaza, including through allowing in urgently needed aid. In the separate case, Jacqueline Rivault, the grandmother of six- and nine-year-old children killed in an Israeli strike, filed her complaint accusing Israel of "genocide" and "murder" with the crimes against humanity section of the Court of Paris, lawyer Arie Alimi said. Though formally against unnamed parties, the complaint explicitly targets Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government and the military. The complaint states that an Israeli missile strike killed Janna, six, and Abderrahim Abudaher, nine, in northern Gaza on October 24, 2023. "We believe these children are dead as part of a deliberate organised policy targeting the whole of Gaza's population with a possible genocidal intent," Alimi said. The children's brother Omar, now five, was severely wounded but still lives in Gaza with their mother, identified as Yasmine Z., the complaint said. Agence France-Presse
Gulf Today
an hour ago
- Gulf Today
Why Medicaid work requirements won't work
Kathryn Anne Edwards, Tribune News Service The US labour market is a truly astonishing thing to behold. It includes 171 million Americans, as young as 14 and older than 90, some who never finished elementary school and others with PhDs. It is resilient and dynamic, shrinking during recessions but growing again after. It provides the majority of Americans with the majority of their income. All of which is to say: It is common to look to the labor market as a kind of salve for all economic wounds. Whatever the problem is, the solution is to get people working. Unfortunately, it's not that simple. For all its strength, the labor market is encumbered by the low-wage labor market — where work doesn't support a stable living, and where jobs are so bad they're more salt than salve. This is a reality that Republicans in Congress, in their current push to impose work requirements on Medicaid recipients, ignore. They are making policy for a labor market that doesn't exist. The 'low-wage labor market' is a vague designation. It's typically defined as those workers who have relatively or absolutely low hourly earnings, such as the bottom quintile or quarter of wage earners, or earners below some nominal wage cutoff. Whatever the definition, however, there are some aspects of the low-wage labor market that are obvious: The low-wage labor market is large. At least 39 million workers in the US earn less than $17 an hour, which is the equivalent of $35,360 annually. That is just below 138% of the poverty threshold for a family of three — the income needed for parents to be eligible for Medicaid in states that expanded it under the Affordable Care Act. Earnings in the low-wage labor market are volatile. Earnings volatility measures change in wage income from one month to the next. Instability at both the very top and very bottom is so great that economists have a term for it: the 'wild ride.' Recent research from the Brookings Institution's Hamilton Project shows that low-wage earners see more spikes and dips in income than any other group, with the dips being especially large. They have the most volatile earnings when measured by the coefficient of variation, regardless of whether the household has a single or multiple earners. That volatility can be partly attributed to unpredictable hours. Many low-wage earners are employed in shift work, in which their hours and schedule can vary week to week, often with little notice. According to Harvard's Shift Project, two-thirds of workers in retail and food service get less than two weeks' notice of their schedule, half get less than one week's notice, and 70% report that the timing of their scheduled shifts changes at least once a month. This flexibility is more likely to be imposed by employers rather than requested by employees; the more volatile the hours, the fewer hours typically worked. Low-wage jobs usually also have low-quality benefits. Of private-sector workers in the bottom 25% of the wage distribution, 30% do not have access to any type of leave, whether it is sick, holiday, vacation or personal. Some 56% do not have access to an employer-sponsored health-care plan, while 84% do not have access to an employer-sponsored dental plan. And 50% do not have access to a defined-contribution retirement plan. The bottom line is clear. Working Americans are eligible for social benefits such as Medicaid not only because their pay isn't high enough, but also because it isn't reliable enough. Classic labour theory holds that workers are balancing two conflicting goals: the consumption of purchased goods, and the consumption of leisure time. The former requires time at work; the latter requires time away from work. It is up to the worker to calibrate how much of each they want. Of course, economists will try to predict how workers and consumers will react to any change in their earnings. If a worker gets a wage increase, the 'income effect' would push them to work less: They can still consume the same amount of purchased goods but also have more leisure time. Alternatively, a wage increase could trigger the 'substitution effect,' pushing them to work more: The price of leisure (foregone wages) is now more expensive. But what if that worker gets a non-wage increase from a public benefit? There is no substitution effect, just the income effect — that is, they would work less. This is the economic foundation for the idea that public benefits discourage work. Work requirements are meant to counter this incentive. It sounds reasonable. But for at least 39 million Americans, work brings low wages, unstable earnings, unpredictable hours and few benefits.
Al Etihad
an hour ago
- Al Etihad
42 Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza Strip
7 June 2025 00:18 GAZA (WAM) Israeli strikes on Friday killed 42 Palestinians and injured others in the Gaza Strip, according to Palestinian News & Information Agency (WAFA). Israel has waged a military onslaught on the Strip since October 2023, killing at least 54,677 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and injuring 125,530 others.
