Hurricane center says system could develop slowly off Florida coast
In its 8 a.m. tropical advisory, the NHC said an area of low pressure was forecast to develop either off of Florida's Gulf Coast or in the Atlantic along a weakening frontal boundary.
"Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system moves little," forecasters said. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast."
The NHC gave it a 40% chance to develop in the next seven days.
If it were to become strong enough, it could become Tropical Storm Chantal, the third named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season after Andrea and Barry.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne expects higher rain chances across the region beginning Thursday whether the low pressure system develops or not as moisture piles up against the frontal boundary forming over North Florida.
"Most areas are forecast to receive 1-4 inches of rainfall through the period (some much needed), but locations that receive locally high amounts multiple days in a row will become increasingly susceptible to flooding," forecasters said.
Just when showers and storms would form is uncertain because of high coverage of clouds reducing the normal daytime heating effect that brings daily afternoon storms.
"As the environment becomes broadly unstable, it`ll be easier for showers and storms to develop in the overnight and morning hours," forecasters said.
Models vary in where the low pressure area will form, and just how slowly it may meander over the state.
If its center is over the northeast Gulf near the Nature Coast, that would continue to draw moisture up over the Florida peninsula keeping rain chances very high for the state. Some models expect it to form just offshore of Jacksonville with drier air in North Florida, although still pulling moisture across South Florida.
Some models expect the low to wander between the two coasts.
"Ultimately rainfall looks to remain episodic, allowing areas that receive heavy rainfall time to recover and keeping the threat for flooding limited to spotsthat get repeated rounds over multiple days," forecasters said.
Rain chances could continue to remain high through Sunday and into Monday depending on how the low pressure area meanders.
This is the first tropical threat to the state this year. In 2024, Florida was struck by three hurricanes, all on the Gulf coast.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 13 to 19 named storms this year, of which 6-10 will become hurricanes. Three to five of those would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.
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