Crude oil prices drop as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes, surplus looms

Business Standard

05-05-2025

Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday after OPEC+ decided over the weekend to further speed up oil output hikes, spurring concerns about more supply coming into a market clouded by an uncertain demand outlook.
Brent crude futures dropped by 87 cents, or 1.42%, to $60.42 a barrel by 0946 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.37 a barrel, down 92 cents, or 1.58%.
Both contracts touched their lowest since April 9 at Monday's open, after OPEC+ agreed to accelerate oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd).
The June increase from the eight producers in the OPEC+ group will take the total combined hikes for April, May and June to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44% unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd of various cuts agreed on since 2022, according to Reuters calculations.
The group could fully unwind its voluntary cuts by the end of October if members do not improve compliance with their production quotas, OPEC+ sources told Reuters.
OPEC+ sources have said Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ to accelerate the unwinding of earlier output cuts to punish fellow members Iraq and Kazakhstan for poor compliance with their production quotas.
"The production increase, instigated by Saudi Arabia, is as much about challenging U.S. shale supply as it is to penalize members that have benefited from higher prices while flaunting their production limits," said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
"Adding barrels into an economic slowdown will weigh on prices until we have a clearer picture on the demand impact."
Expectations of supply coming back to the market have weighed on the Brent futures forward curve, signifying a weaker market on the horizon.
The premium between the front-month Brent contract and that for delivery in six months was 10 cents a barrel, narrowing from 47 cents in the previous session. The spread had briefly flipped to a discount, known as a 'contango' structure, for the first time since December 2023 earlier in the session.
Barclays and ING have also lowered their Brent crude forecasts following the OPEC+ decision.
Barclays reduced its Brent forecast by $4 to $66 a barrel for 2025 and by $2 to $60 for 2026, while ING expects Brent to average $65 this year, down from $70 previously.
"The oil market has been dealing with significant demand uncertainty amid tariff risks. This change in OPEC+ policy adds to uncertainty on the supply side," ING analysts led by Warren Patterson said.
Widespread recession fears and weak refined fuel import demand is also weighing on oil prices, said Vortexa's chief economist David Wech, adding that since mid-February the data analytics firm had noted an approximate 150 million barrel build in global crude stocks in onshore tanks and on tankers at sea.