NBA Awards Watch: Nikola Jokić or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? Lets go deep on MVP

New York Times

20-03-2025

It's been a month since we relaunched the weekly Awards Watch column, which is a perfect time to revisit the MVP debate. This week, we go all-in on the MVP ballot.
GO DEEPER
SGA vs. Joker MVP race is going down to the wire. Don't look away
5 Honorable Mentions: Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers | Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets
In Sam Amick's MVP article this week, he threw an aside into the mix about Antetokounmpo being in the Jokić/SGA grouping of special players/seasons. And, while I would obviously not put Antetokounmpo above either of those two players this season (nor would anybody), it was a good nudge by Sam to remind everybody just how regular Antetokounmpo has made his absurd production. For much of the season, his abandonment of the 3-point shot and his penchant for punishing in the paint has drawn reasonable comparisons to Shaquille O'Neal (for points in the paint). Averaging 30 points, 12 rebounds and six assists while flirting with 60 percent shooting from the field shouldn't feel normal. Antetokounmpo makes it so.
The story of the greatest players in NBA history. In 100 riveting profiles, top basketball writers justify their selections and uncover the history of the NBA in the process.
The story of the greatest players in NBA history.
LeBron's groin injury knocks him out of the top five for now (and maybe for good depending on how long he's out?). I still believe Mitchell has to be in the mix on the ballot, and Tatum has had another spectacular season. Outside of LeBron, nobody else can eclipse these five.
Instead of giving each guy their own mini-section within this MVP section, I feel the need to try to intertwine their cases together. We don't know how the playoffs will unfold, and hopefully these two players will face off against each other in one of the rounds, but we know we won't be able to tell the story of the 2024-25 regular season without both of them equally. That ends up being a big part of the MVP race — the narrative involved. In the original Awards Watch post, I laid out my criteria for how I believe the MVP award is typically approached. Let's go through that here with each player.
Advertisement
These are two ridiculous and historic stat lines. Jokić would become the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double in a season, and you can certainly argue it's the most impressive instance. Oscar Robertson did it while averaging 30.1 points, 12.5 rebounds and 11.4 assists and making 47.8 percent of his shots. He had a true shooting mark of 55.4 percent, but the NBA also didn't have the 3-point shot back then. Russell Westbrook did it four times and also topped out at 55.4 percent true shooting. During one season, he averaged over 30 points per game, clocking in at 31.4 in 2016-17.
Nobody has done it with the efficiency of Jokić, and I think that matters quite a bit. I don't know if it makes it better outright, because they happened in different eras and different seasons. Jokić happens to exist in an era of hyper-focus on efficiency, and Westbrook's prime came in the turn of that era. It's what made him stand out at times because he wasn't conforming. He also couldn't conform because he's historically one of the worst 3-point shooters we've ever seen. Jokić doing this at the center position is unique considering the other two players were point guards.
On some level, maybe Robertson and Westbrook grabbing so many rebounds is as abnormal as Jokić dishing out so many assists. But we're so used to guards grabbing rebounds and players putting up triple-doubles that the numbers sometimes make us a little numb. We've been desensitized to a lot of the impressive output of today's players. And then, something like Jokić putting up a 30-20-20 game happens, kind of like when Westbrook dropped a 20-20-20 game to honor the late rapper Nipsey Hussle. It's a reminder that this stuff isn't normal. We'll get back to that idea a little bit later.
When you then go from Jokić's stats to Gilgeous-Alexander's, I think it's wrong to feel deflated or that they aren't as impressive. In a recent nationally televised game for the Thunder, the point was made that SGA was having a Michael Jordan-like season in terms of numbers. And that's correct. SGA and Jordan are the only players in history to average 33 points, five rebounds and six assists while making at least 50 percent of their shots. Jordan did it in the 1989-90 season but did not win the MVP award. Three players in history have averaged 33 points, five rebounds, six assists and 1.5 steals. It's Jordan and James Harden with SGA. When you add a full block per game into the mix, it's just SGA. He's the only player to ever do this, and he's also doing all of this while putting up nearly a 65.0 percent true shooting.
Advertisement
The level of efficiency doesn't come from a Steph Curry-esque level of 3-point shooting every night. SGA is good, but he's not even shooting it as well as Jokić does. He makes his bones on offense by making the same percentage of shots at the rim (71.8) as Jokić on nearly just as many field goals (365 attempts to Jokic's 387). For a guard, that's extremely impressive. He's relentless in the way he attacks and uses his brand of physicality to bully defenders off their spots. He and Jokić are both brilliant tacticians scoring the ball from the middle of the floor, which is supposed to be a prohibited zone now (it is but only for players who are bad at shooting it). Jokić is a better 3-point shooter, and SGA is better at free throws.
Jokić: Nuggets are plus-9.9 per 100 possessions with Jokić on the floor | minus-8.6 with him on the bench
SGA: Thunder are plus-16.6 per 100 possessions with SGA on the floor | plus-4.2 with him on the bench
First and foremost, you always have to take these on/off net rating numbers with a massive grain of salt. They're a nice little glimpse into impact, but simply a glimpse. Lineup data for a full season is far more telling with these kinds of on/off net rating figures, and then, you can get into even deeper stats with this stuff. But I like keeping it simple just to get a tiny snapshot with this. There is this big assumption that the impact of Jokić on the Nuggets is far greater than the impact of SGA with the Thunder. Part of that is because OKC blows everybody out at a historic rate (we'll get there next).
When you go by this metric, Jokić still has a bigger differential. There's an 18.5-point-per-100-possession difference with SGA and without Jokić. That's massive. This team is exceptionally dominant with him on the floor and basically the Utah Jazz without him. It's why, during every game, you hear announcers talking about the Nuggets surviving the 'non-Jokić minutes.'
Advertisement
The Thunder are historically dominant with SGA on the floor. To be plus-16.6 per 100 possessions is some Curry-in-2016 stuff. Even for star players, we rarely see that kind of thing. Without him on the floor, they're still good, but not nearly as dominant. We're looking at a difference of 12.4 per 100 possessions. That's big, but it's not 18.5 big. The interesting thing about the SGA on/off numbers is, a month ago, the numbers looked like plus-18.4 on/plus-0.4 off. The Thunder were even more dominant with him on but a coin flip with him off. The team has adjusted without him in a way I'm not sure the Nuggets could even fathom without Jokić. That has to factor into what you deem valuable.
Jokić: Nuggets are 44-26, fourth in the West. On pace for roughly 51-52 wins.
SGA: Thunder are 57-12, first in the West. On pace for roughly 67-68 wins.
The MVP award doesn't always go to the best player on the best team. We often see that debate in plenty of seasons of whether it should. I do think team success should factor in when doing some tiebreaker activities in close cases. But that also then needs to get wrapped up in the player impact conversation above. The Thunder have 13 more wins and are on pace for 16 more wins than the Nuggets. That's a ginormous gulf between these two candidates, and I'm sure it'll factor in on some level.
This is obviously subjective, but I'm just going off the conversations I have around the league, the conversations I have among friends who are fans and the stuff I see on social media. The perceived value is definitely in favor of Jokić. At times, I've presented the on/off numbers of SGA when discussing these two candidates with friends. It was especially jarring a month ago, when you saw the Thunder were barely a winning team without him on the floor. And it would get some eyebrows raised in response. Ultimately, you'd get hit with a 'Yeah, but still …' in response. As good as SGA is, it just feels like Jokić's value is far more vital to the Nuggets than what the Thunder need from Gilgeous-Alexander. Even if that's not fair, it definitely feels like the perception.
If you haven't read Marcus Thompson's recent piece on Jokić, you absolutely have to. It's brilliant writing and encapsulates his greatness so perfectly. This particular thought about the future dismissal of what Jokić must have been by future generations really got me:
Imagine the pending derision of Jokić. That he was a giant in a league of small ball. That he only could thrive in an era of pace and space and no defense. That the league couldn't be that good if the best player couldn't conjure muscle definition.
And we won't have the words to explain. Just facial expressions and sighs of exasperation. Because awe is a non-verbal language.
The future won't believe us about Jokić.
His numbers won't do us any favors, either, because they don't make sense. They inspire skepticism more than reverence. They aid the cynical critic more than the zealous witness.
We're still trying to wrap our heads around the greatness of Jokić. I think one of the reasons is because nobody ever saw it coming. We knew LeBron was going to be great. He was a star when he was a sophomore in high school, and he had the most unreasonable expectations thrown on his shoulders the second he reached a Sports Illustrated cover. He wasn't proving things right or wrong in his career. He was checking boxes from a list set out for him. Jokić was drafted during a Taco Bell commercial in the second round. There were no expectations because nobody knew who he was. He emerged out of nowhere and took hold of the league faster than most people could flip to a Nuggets broadcast on League Pass.
Advertisement
Jokić is one of those rare players that I say invoke 'horse noises' when I'm watching basketball. Guys like LeBron, Curry, Kevin Durant and Jokić do the preposterous on a court, and the only reaction I can muster in real-time is similar to when a horse snorts out through its mouth. It's not a neigh or a whinny, but an expulsion of air that flaps your lips because I simply can't find any words in the moment. It's not quite as poetic as what Marcus wrote, but it's how I describe Jokić's greatness.
The greatness of Jokić is not denied. But the narrative of the MVP might reside on SGA's side of the argument. I simply don't believe in some of the narratives. I think the idea of voter fatigue is absolute bunk. As a voter, we should not vote for or against someone based on whether they've won it before. If a player needs to win it six straight times, they should win it six straight times. There's this idea also that it should 'just be Shai's time.' He's emerged as a star and should be rewarded for that kind of ascension in the NBA.
The narrative around SGA should be he's simply unguardable and there's not a player in this league who doesn't respect or fear him on the court. That's much like Jokić, who garners that same respect from his peers. SGA's scoring and defense have been elite all season. I don't think SGA will end up as a First Team All-Defensive selection, but he's deserving of making the Second Team. He might be the best two-way player for each side of the court this season. And he's doing it on the best team. That's a narrative worthy of the MVP award, and, if that's the reason people decide to vote for him, it's justifiable. It should not simply be because Jokić has already won it a lot.
Two Honorable Mentions: Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies | Lu Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder
Two Honorable Mentions: Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks | Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies
Two Honorable Mentions: Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves | Ty Jerome, Cleveland Cavaliers
Two Honorable Mentions: Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder | JJ Redick, LA Lakers
Two Honorable Mentions: Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets | Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics