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New York Times
25-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NHL Awards Watch: Leon Draisaitl, Cale Makar, Connor Hellebuyck lead key races
Throughout the season I'll be breaking down the numbers behind the race for each major player award: the Hart, the Norris, the Calder, the Selke, the Vezina, the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard. Numbers, of course, aren't everything, but they add much-needed context to the awards race and can help shine a light on players deserving of more recognition while adding caveats to other players that may have some warts. This post will present the top 10 for each category based on a set criteria of guidelines. There is plenty of room for discussion and debate within (and outside) those guidelines. Advertisement We're less than a month away from the season's end. Time for another Awards Watch. While the front-runners all remain the same from the last edition, most of the races are still very tight and full of intrigue. There are a lot of things to consider for each race, so let's dive in. Based on my interpretation of the numbers, here's how each of the key races currently shakes out. Data as of March 23 Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. Criteria: Skaters ranked by Net Rating percentile relative to position. There are six worthy candidates for the Hart Trophy. Let's break them down. Leon Draisaitl: For a while now it's been clear who the league's best player has been this season. Draisaitl has the most goals, is second in points and has been absurdly dominant at five-on-five. Draisaitl's defensive growth has been a sight to behold and is the cherry on top of his exceptional season. It's what pushes him over the top as the current MVP front-runner. He's earned nearly 60 percent of the goals and expected goals — both career highs or close to it as a result of his improved defensive game. He leads in Net Rating by almost three goals for very good reason. The real key to Draisaitl's potential victory is the Connor McDavid factor. In past years, the numbers pointed to Draisaitl benefitting greatly from their shared minutes. This season it's been the other way around. Whatever has made McDavid look off this season, it hasn't mattered — Draisaitl has picked up the slack. I wasn't keen on Draisaitl winning the Hart in 2020 mostly because I believed there were real flaws in his two-way game that took away from his production. Five years later, that criticism comes full circle and I hope people can now see more clearly what I meant in 2020. The difference between 2020 Draisaitl and 2025 Draisaitl should be obvious: this is what an MVP season looks like. Advertisement Someone from Colorado: Is it controversial to say that Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar have been equally valuable this season? Given the state of Colorado's depth for much of the season, I don't really care that much about the weird results away from each other. I do care that when they are together they make some seriously beautiful music and it does feel like some lose sight of that by putting too much stock in their WOWY data. MacKinnon and Makar: both elite. Let's not overthink it. I would imagine voters will lean more toward MacKinnon as the league's scoring leader, but I do feel that Makar's defensive work along with what he's done offensively makes him just as valuable. Scoring 30 goals, as he's on pace to do, is no small task and does carry some weight compared to a more assist-heavy stat line. Both are equally deserving, but that lack of separation may be what undoes each of their candidacies. It's hard to pick between the two. Zach Werenski: The fact that the Blue Jackets are still in the thick of the playoff race is nothing short of a small miracle and they have Werenski to thank for that. He's been the team's engine from the beginning of the season, driving incredible levels of offense while putting on one of the best defensive performances of his career. Werenski has emerged as a clear-cut top-five defenseman in the world and one of the league's most valuable players. A true franchise player, one whose value is right there with the Makars and Hugheses of the world. He's had a seriously special season where the Blue Jackets have earned 58 percent of the goals with him on the ice. Nikita Kucherov: It's interesting how little buzz Kucherov's season is getting. Yes, he's producing less than last year, but there seems to be a lot more substance to his five-on-five game — especially without the puck. This season the Lightning have given up 2.51 expected goals against per 60 with Kucherov on the ice, down from 2.81 last season. That bump — without much of an offensive sacrifice — has led to a 54.7 percent xG rate. The team is scoring 60.4 percent of the goals, up from just 51.6 percent last season. The change also comes with increased responsibility, spending a fair bit of time on the team's shutdown line with Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel. I'll take a 20-point sacrifice in favor of a 200-foot Kucherov every day of the week. Advertisement Connor Hellebuyck: Goalies don't often get love for the Hart Trophy partly because of the opportunity they have to accrue value. It takes a truly transcendent performance to be considered — is Hellebuyck giving one? He leads all players in total value by 9.1 goals, but for context, Carey Price nearly doubled up the next closest skater and goalie in value (around 19 goals) when he won in 2015. Hellebuyck's separation isn't quite on that level which is part of the reason he ranks sixth in percentile relative to position. He has a strong argument given what he's driven the Jets to accomplish this year. But if the standard is what Price did in 2015, there is a reason Hellebuyck is part of a pack of MVP contenders rather than the one leading it. Quinn Hughes: For the people who read 'most valuable to his team' as literally as possible, Hughes has the most compelling argument considering how lost the Canucks are without him. There's a 10.4-goal gap between him and the next-best Canuck in Net Rating. For Werenski it's 6.5 goals, for Draisaitl it's 5.6 goals, for Kucherov it's 0.7 goals (apologies to Hagel for being excluded from the list above) and the two Colorado players are tied. Hughes' separation — despite missing 14 games — is his best case. We're almost at the end of the season and this still doesn't feel like an easy choice. Draisaitl is the front-runner and he'd be my pick today. But him missing some action — depending on how long he's out — could tighten the race. Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position. Criteria: Defensemen ranked by Net Rating. How much does playing 14 fewer games matter? That's the question that will decide this year's Norris vote. By total value, Makar holds a 4.5-goal lead over Quinn Hughes in Net Rating. He's been the most valuable defenseman. On a per-82 game basis, Makar's pace of plus-25.9 is a shade behind Hughes' pace at plus-26.2. By the slimmest of margins, Hughes has been the better defenseman this season. That was on full display against the Rangers over the weekend, a dominant game where Hughes was all over the ice, tilting it significantly in Vancouver's direction. Despite playing on a weaker team with less help, Hughes' xG rate is only marginally behind Makar's (55.8 percent to Makar's 56.1 percent) and the same is true for their goal percentages (57.8 percent to Makar's 58.5 percent). Vancouver's next-best player is nowhere close to the level of MacKinnon, a player Makar shares a lot of ice with. That's the case for Hughes: essentially the same per-game impact with far less help from his own team. Few players control the game as much as Hughes who is one of the game's best transitional players. Some analytically savvy folks may be shocked that the two grade out so evenly and the difference stems primarily from quality of competition. On both ends of the spectrum, Makar faces some of the most difficult opponents in the league: the best offensive players and the best defensive ones. It's full power versus power, which is part of what makes his output so impressive. Advertisement Yes, of course, it's easier with MacKinnon on the ice at the same time and that's accounted for, but I do think people underrate the degree of difficulty that the toughest minutes entail — even with help. Producing offensively against the best defensive players is hard and Makar creates chances better than any defenseman. Defending against the best offensive players is also hard and it's an area Makar also excels in. That he has to do both, even when he doesn't share the ice with MacKinnon, partly explains some of the weaker xG numbers without him. Defensively, the difficulty of Makar's minutes ranks in the 98th percentile. Hughes, in comparison, is in the 63rd percentile. Hughes is not sheltered by any means, but he does receive secondary matchups which makes it a bit easier to dominate — even if he doesn't have as much help. It allows him to focus more on offense and control the game. It's a similar strategy that Nashville employs with Roman Josi and Tampa Bay uses with Victor Hedman, one that allows Vancouver to fully utilize and maximize Hughes' gifts with the puck. Werenski is a strong candidate as well with excellent play at both ends of the ice. The gap between the top three and the rest of the field is considerably large and it would be a shock to see any other defenseman be a finalist. This trio should be a lock. Beyond them are a lot of usual suspects. Evan Bouchard and Adam Fox remain extremely valuable for their teams, even in down seasons. Thomas Harley has really stepped up this year, while Josh Morrissey has been a rock for Winnipeg. Rasmus Dahlin is one of the few bright spots in Buffalo and Hedman still rules. The one surprise to some on the list might be John Carlson. He's been a critical part of Washington's epic rise this season and deserves some love for his role in the team's success. His plus-0.26 relative xG rate is a career best and some of his on-ice numbers also rank highly. He may not be scoring at a 70-plus point pace as he did during his Norris contention years, but he's added a lot of substance to his game the last few years. He's been a star for the Capitals this season. Given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game. Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team's short-handed minutes and face top-line forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating. The last time a winger won the Selke was Jere Lehtinen in 2002-03, a 21-year drought that should end this season. With a Defensive Rating of plus-8.0, Sam Reinhart has been the league's best defensive forward. Reinhart's main competition is his linemate and the Selke incumbent Aleksander Barkov. While I don't doubt many voters will lean toward Barkov thanks to his reputation, I do believe that Reinhart has been more impressive defensively this season. He's been on the ice for fewer expected goals against per 60 (1.86 to Barkov's 2.02), similar goals against (1.85 to Barkov's 1.84), and the same level of competition (average Offensive Rating of 2.95). Reinhart has also played 10 more games which increases his total defensive value over Barkov's. Even on a per-game basis, though, Reinhart comes out ahead by 1.4 goals if they played the same number of games. Advertisement I know it's hard to vote against the incumbent and the guy we know is generally the better defensive forward. But if voters can acknowledge that better players can sometimes have worse offensive seasons than their sidekicks (Evgeni Malkin over Sidney Crosby or Leon Draisaitl over Connor McDavid, for example), that same logic should apply to defensive seasons. Almost anyone would take Barkov over Reinhart as a shutdown option in a Game 7 matchup, but Reinhart has still arguably been more impactful this season. After those two, there are a lot of strong options to fill out the ballot. The Lightning duo of Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel have separated themselves from the pack and are right there with Barkov. Cirelli eats tough minutes and defensive zone starts and has posted some exceptional impacts at five-on-five relative to teammates — slightly better than Barkov's. Lower down the list, Seth Jarvis is probably the best option from Carolina these days. He's played tougher minutes than Jordan Staal and has been on for fewer expected goals against despite also taking on a heavier offensive workload. Jarvis looks like the next Mark Stone and it's fitting that the two are side-by-side on this list. Stone has had a resurgent defensive season and deserves some consideration. Teammate Jack Eichel also deserves praise given what he's accomplished despite the extreme difficulty of his usage, though it should be noted that much of his impact comes from suppressing actual goals more than chances. There are a lot of great options this year, but most of them are fighting for fourth and/or fifth. The top three spots, at the very least, belong to someone from the state of Florida. Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL. Criteria: Rookie skaters ranked by Net Rating percentile relative to position. No trophy race has been more of an actual race than this one. At times, all four of Dustin Wolf, Lane Hutson, Macklin Celebrini and Matvei Michkov have had a strong case as the top rookie. As the season reaches its conclusion, though, the Calder has become a two-player race between Wolf and Hutson. Wolf is having a very special rookie season for a goalie. Hutson is having a very special rookie season for a defenseman. Picking between the two is not easy. Based on their percentile relative to their position, Wolf comes out narrowly ahead. But it's close enough that Hutson has a strong case. Arguably a stronger one given historical precedent. Advertisement Based on a blend of Evolving Hockey's and MoneyPuck's models, Wolf ranks seventh among starting goalies in GSAx. The only other times a rookie goalie has been a top 10 starter are Carey Price in 2008 (eighth), Tuukka Rask in 2010 (seventh) and Matt Murray in 2017 (sixth). Wolf has arguably had a stronger rookie season than all of them and has been an immediate star saving 15 goals above expected. Goalies don't usually get a lot of love for the Calder — all three of those aforementioned goalies finished fourth — and that needs to change for Wolf. He's been amazing and is the only reason the Flames are somehow in the thick of the playoff race. If there's an exception to the rule, he's it. So too, though, is Hutson whose offensive output as a defender puts him in rarified air. For the season, Hutson is on pace for an Offensive Rating of plus-11.6, a mark that's only been bested by one other rookie defenseman in the analytics era: Cale Makar at plus-13.4. Hutson is scoring at a 62-point pace this season and has completely unlocked Montreal's offensive potential. The Canadiens perform a lot better offensively at five-on-five with Hutson on the ice, and his tape speaks to that. The caveat with Hutson is that he gives back a lot defensively (unlike Makar) and that's plain to see with a minus-2.0 Defensive Rating this season. Hutson more than makes up for it with his offensive ability, but it is something to consider. It's also not unlike Hughes' rookie season when he had his own issues defensively (that he's cleaned up since). A positive sign for Hutson: Hughes' Defensive Rating in his rookie year was even lower at minus-4.1 per 82 games (made up for by a plus-10.9 Offensive Rating). If Hutson's best comp is Hughes and the only rookie defenseman who has shined more offensively is Makar … that's hard to vote against. It's a tough call because Wolf has been more valuable and shines brighter relative to his position, but what Hutson has done feels more rare as a rookie. Both have separated themselves a bit from Celebrini and Michkov. That's not to say that those two haven't also been excellent. Celebrini is scoring at a scintillating 74-point pace while Michkov has scored at a 57-point pace. Both have shown a knack for driving offense at five-on-five too, though Michkov has the edge there which is why his Offensive Rating is a little higher. That Celebrini has performed so well despite a desolate roster around him is also commendable. It's just that what Wolf and Hutson are doing feels more significant. Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position. Criteria: Goaltenders who have played half of their team's games or more, ranked by goals saved above expected courtesy of Evolving Hockey and MoneyPuck. The Vezina has been Connor Hellebuyck's all season and that remains unchanged going into the final month of the season. He's the only goalie in the league who has played over 15 games and has a save percentage over .920. That the games played threshold for that is so low speaks to how special Hellebuyck's season has been given his game-to-game consistency. To play at this level over such a high volume of games is seriously impressive and is why he's not just the current Vezina leader, but also in the thick of the Hart race. Advertisement Hellebuyck's 34.2 goals saved above expected laps the field with Logan Thompson at 28 and Igor Shesterkin at 20.5 being the only others above 20. As impressive as Thompson has been on a per-game basis (0.7 GSAX per game to Hellebuyck's 0.63), the lack of start volume does matter. Being a workhorse goalie is a difficult job where it's harder to maintain such a high level of play over such a high number of games. The extra rest that Charlie Lindgren affords Thompson is a luxury that Hellebuyck doesn't have. As for Shesterkin — the Rangers' defense has seriously let him down this season. He's still been excellent. Down the ballot: Lukas Dostal and Sam Montembeault have been strong despite playing behind porous defensive teams. Darcy Kuemper has been quietly excellent, Dustin Wolf has made a name for himself and Andrei Vasilevskiy deserves some consideration too with a resurgent season. Given to the player who leads the National Hockey League in scoring points at the end of the regular season. Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season point total. This one would've been a tight race to the finish if not for a late injury to Draisaitl that could have him sidelined for enough games to be unable to catch MacKinnon. The Colorado superstar has a four-point lead with 11 games to go and projects to finish with 121 points, a mark that looks unlikely to be surpassed. Kucherov had a chance at one point but has slowed down of late. Missing four games also hurts his chances. Also noteworthy: the NHL had nine 100-point scorers last year, 11 in 2022-23 and eight in 2021-22. This year there may only be four or five, though Kyle Connor, Mitch Marner and David Pastrnak all have a shot. Given to the NHL's top goal scorer. Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season goal total. With an 11-goal lead and 11-to-12 games to go for his biggest challengers, it's safe to say that Leon Draisaitl has already won the Rocket Richard. Even if he misses the remainder of the season (which seems unlikely), it doesn't appear likely that either William Nylander or Kyle Connor can catch him. Both players are projected to finish just shy of 45 goals; Draisaitl already has 49. Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and Corey Sznajder's All Three Zones project (Top photo of Leon Draisaitl and Nathan MacKinnon: Justin Tafoya / Getty Images)
New York Times
20-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NBA Awards Watch: Nikola Jokić or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? Lets go deep on MVP
It's been a month since we relaunched the weekly Awards Watch column, which is a perfect time to revisit the MVP debate. This week, we go all-in on the MVP ballot. GO DEEPER SGA vs. Joker MVP race is going down to the wire. Don't look away 5 Honorable Mentions: Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers | Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets In Sam Amick's MVP article this week, he threw an aside into the mix about Antetokounmpo being in the Jokić/SGA grouping of special players/seasons. And, while I would obviously not put Antetokounmpo above either of those two players this season (nor would anybody), it was a good nudge by Sam to remind everybody just how regular Antetokounmpo has made his absurd production. For much of the season, his abandonment of the 3-point shot and his penchant for punishing in the paint has drawn reasonable comparisons to Shaquille O'Neal (for points in the paint). Averaging 30 points, 12 rebounds and six assists while flirting with 60 percent shooting from the field shouldn't feel normal. Antetokounmpo makes it so. The story of the greatest players in NBA history. In 100 riveting profiles, top basketball writers justify their selections and uncover the history of the NBA in the process. The story of the greatest players in NBA history. LeBron's groin injury knocks him out of the top five for now (and maybe for good depending on how long he's out?). I still believe Mitchell has to be in the mix on the ballot, and Tatum has had another spectacular season. Outside of LeBron, nobody else can eclipse these five. Instead of giving each guy their own mini-section within this MVP section, I feel the need to try to intertwine their cases together. We don't know how the playoffs will unfold, and hopefully these two players will face off against each other in one of the rounds, but we know we won't be able to tell the story of the 2024-25 regular season without both of them equally. That ends up being a big part of the MVP race — the narrative involved. In the original Awards Watch post, I laid out my criteria for how I believe the MVP award is typically approached. Let's go through that here with each player. Advertisement These are two ridiculous and historic stat lines. Jokić would become the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double in a season, and you can certainly argue it's the most impressive instance. Oscar Robertson did it while averaging 30.1 points, 12.5 rebounds and 11.4 assists and making 47.8 percent of his shots. He had a true shooting mark of 55.4 percent, but the NBA also didn't have the 3-point shot back then. Russell Westbrook did it four times and also topped out at 55.4 percent true shooting. During one season, he averaged over 30 points per game, clocking in at 31.4 in 2016-17. Nobody has done it with the efficiency of Jokić, and I think that matters quite a bit. I don't know if it makes it better outright, because they happened in different eras and different seasons. Jokić happens to exist in an era of hyper-focus on efficiency, and Westbrook's prime came in the turn of that era. It's what made him stand out at times because he wasn't conforming. He also couldn't conform because he's historically one of the worst 3-point shooters we've ever seen. Jokić doing this at the center position is unique considering the other two players were point guards. On some level, maybe Robertson and Westbrook grabbing so many rebounds is as abnormal as Jokić dishing out so many assists. But we're so used to guards grabbing rebounds and players putting up triple-doubles that the numbers sometimes make us a little numb. We've been desensitized to a lot of the impressive output of today's players. And then, something like Jokić putting up a 30-20-20 game happens, kind of like when Westbrook dropped a 20-20-20 game to honor the late rapper Nipsey Hussle. It's a reminder that this stuff isn't normal. We'll get back to that idea a little bit later. When you then go from Jokić's stats to Gilgeous-Alexander's, I think it's wrong to feel deflated or that they aren't as impressive. In a recent nationally televised game for the Thunder, the point was made that SGA was having a Michael Jordan-like season in terms of numbers. And that's correct. SGA and Jordan are the only players in history to average 33 points, five rebounds and six assists while making at least 50 percent of their shots. Jordan did it in the 1989-90 season but did not win the MVP award. Three players in history have averaged 33 points, five rebounds, six assists and 1.5 steals. It's Jordan and James Harden with SGA. When you add a full block per game into the mix, it's just SGA. He's the only player to ever do this, and he's also doing all of this while putting up nearly a 65.0 percent true shooting. Advertisement The level of efficiency doesn't come from a Steph Curry-esque level of 3-point shooting every night. SGA is good, but he's not even shooting it as well as Jokić does. He makes his bones on offense by making the same percentage of shots at the rim (71.8) as Jokić on nearly just as many field goals (365 attempts to Jokic's 387). For a guard, that's extremely impressive. He's relentless in the way he attacks and uses his brand of physicality to bully defenders off their spots. He and Jokić are both brilliant tacticians scoring the ball from the middle of the floor, which is supposed to be a prohibited zone now (it is but only for players who are bad at shooting it). Jokić is a better 3-point shooter, and SGA is better at free throws. Jokić: Nuggets are plus-9.9 per 100 possessions with Jokić on the floor | minus-8.6 with him on the bench SGA: Thunder are plus-16.6 per 100 possessions with SGA on the floor | plus-4.2 with him on the bench First and foremost, you always have to take these on/off net rating numbers with a massive grain of salt. They're a nice little glimpse into impact, but simply a glimpse. Lineup data for a full season is far more telling with these kinds of on/off net rating figures, and then, you can get into even deeper stats with this stuff. But I like keeping it simple just to get a tiny snapshot with this. There is this big assumption that the impact of Jokić on the Nuggets is far greater than the impact of SGA with the Thunder. Part of that is because OKC blows everybody out at a historic rate (we'll get there next). When you go by this metric, Jokić still has a bigger differential. There's an 18.5-point-per-100-possession difference with SGA and without Jokić. That's massive. This team is exceptionally dominant with him on the floor and basically the Utah Jazz without him. It's why, during every game, you hear announcers talking about the Nuggets surviving the 'non-Jokić minutes.' Advertisement The Thunder are historically dominant with SGA on the floor. To be plus-16.6 per 100 possessions is some Curry-in-2016 stuff. Even for star players, we rarely see that kind of thing. Without him on the floor, they're still good, but not nearly as dominant. We're looking at a difference of 12.4 per 100 possessions. That's big, but it's not 18.5 big. The interesting thing about the SGA on/off numbers is, a month ago, the numbers looked like plus-18.4 on/plus-0.4 off. The Thunder were even more dominant with him on but a coin flip with him off. The team has adjusted without him in a way I'm not sure the Nuggets could even fathom without Jokić. That has to factor into what you deem valuable. Jokić: Nuggets are 44-26, fourth in the West. On pace for roughly 51-52 wins. SGA: Thunder are 57-12, first in the West. On pace for roughly 67-68 wins. The MVP award doesn't always go to the best player on the best team. We often see that debate in plenty of seasons of whether it should. I do think team success should factor in when doing some tiebreaker activities in close cases. But that also then needs to get wrapped up in the player impact conversation above. The Thunder have 13 more wins and are on pace for 16 more wins than the Nuggets. That's a ginormous gulf between these two candidates, and I'm sure it'll factor in on some level. This is obviously subjective, but I'm just going off the conversations I have around the league, the conversations I have among friends who are fans and the stuff I see on social media. The perceived value is definitely in favor of Jokić. At times, I've presented the on/off numbers of SGA when discussing these two candidates with friends. It was especially jarring a month ago, when you saw the Thunder were barely a winning team without him on the floor. And it would get some eyebrows raised in response. Ultimately, you'd get hit with a 'Yeah, but still …' in response. As good as SGA is, it just feels like Jokić's value is far more vital to the Nuggets than what the Thunder need from Gilgeous-Alexander. Even if that's not fair, it definitely feels like the perception. If you haven't read Marcus Thompson's recent piece on Jokić, you absolutely have to. It's brilliant writing and encapsulates his greatness so perfectly. This particular thought about the future dismissal of what Jokić must have been by future generations really got me: Imagine the pending derision of Jokić. That he was a giant in a league of small ball. That he only could thrive in an era of pace and space and no defense. That the league couldn't be that good if the best player couldn't conjure muscle definition. And we won't have the words to explain. Just facial expressions and sighs of exasperation. Because awe is a non-verbal language. The future won't believe us about Jokić. His numbers won't do us any favors, either, because they don't make sense. They inspire skepticism more than reverence. They aid the cynical critic more than the zealous witness. We're still trying to wrap our heads around the greatness of Jokić. I think one of the reasons is because nobody ever saw it coming. We knew LeBron was going to be great. He was a star when he was a sophomore in high school, and he had the most unreasonable expectations thrown on his shoulders the second he reached a Sports Illustrated cover. He wasn't proving things right or wrong in his career. He was checking boxes from a list set out for him. Jokić was drafted during a Taco Bell commercial in the second round. There were no expectations because nobody knew who he was. He emerged out of nowhere and took hold of the league faster than most people could flip to a Nuggets broadcast on League Pass. Advertisement Jokić is one of those rare players that I say invoke 'horse noises' when I'm watching basketball. Guys like LeBron, Curry, Kevin Durant and Jokić do the preposterous on a court, and the only reaction I can muster in real-time is similar to when a horse snorts out through its mouth. It's not a neigh or a whinny, but an expulsion of air that flaps your lips because I simply can't find any words in the moment. It's not quite as poetic as what Marcus wrote, but it's how I describe Jokić's greatness. The greatness of Jokić is not denied. But the narrative of the MVP might reside on SGA's side of the argument. I simply don't believe in some of the narratives. I think the idea of voter fatigue is absolute bunk. As a voter, we should not vote for or against someone based on whether they've won it before. If a player needs to win it six straight times, they should win it six straight times. There's this idea also that it should 'just be Shai's time.' He's emerged as a star and should be rewarded for that kind of ascension in the NBA. The narrative around SGA should be he's simply unguardable and there's not a player in this league who doesn't respect or fear him on the court. That's much like Jokić, who garners that same respect from his peers. SGA's scoring and defense have been elite all season. I don't think SGA will end up as a First Team All-Defensive selection, but he's deserving of making the Second Team. He might be the best two-way player for each side of the court this season. And he's doing it on the best team. That's a narrative worthy of the MVP award, and, if that's the reason people decide to vote for him, it's justifiable. It should not simply be because Jokić has already won it a lot. Two Honorable Mentions: Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies | Lu Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder Two Honorable Mentions: Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks | Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies Two Honorable Mentions: Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves | Ty Jerome, Cleveland Cavaliers Two Honorable Mentions: Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder | JJ Redick, LA Lakers Two Honorable Mentions: Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets | Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics
New York Times
06-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NBA Awards Watch: Should Kenny Atkinson or J.B. Bickerstaff be Coach of the Year?
We're doing NBA Awards Watch every Thursday until the end of the regular season. Each week we'll emphasize a new award. This week, we've got Coach of the Year, which often comes down to whether a candidate surprised us with how well his team did. But should it? Should it be about that rather than overall excellent coaching? And how do we judge which surprise coaching job is better than the other surprise coaching job? This award has a lot to consider, and this season is the perfect example of trying to figure out how to debate and decide it. For the criteria I use for each award, check out this Awards Watch post. It explains how I, and a lot of the voting history, look at the six individual awards. We'll go heavy on Coach of the Year here, and give quick-hitter thoughts for all other awards. All betting odds are courtesy of BetMGM. We have never had someone win Coach of the Year in back-to-back seasons. The closest we came was Don Nelson winning the award in 1983 and 1985. Gregg Popovich won it in 2012 and 2014. Other than that, nobody has come close to winning it in consecutive years. Phil Jackson won the award in 1996 when the Chicago Bulls had the greatest season ever with 72 wins and the championship. The next year, Pat Riley won his third COY award by leading the Miami Heat to a 61-21 record. He beat out Dave Cowens, who led the Charlotte Hornets to a 54-28 record. Jackson's Bulls went 69-13, tying for the second-most wins ever in a season. Jackson didn't get a single vote for the award in 1997. That's ridiculous! Advertisement Let's put up our Brian Windhorst pointer fingers and wonder, 'Now why is that?' Part of me believes the award isn't really about coaching. It's actually about us — both the public and the voting panel. So often, the winner of the award is someone who exceeded preseason expectations. Sometimes those expectations were fair and the coach led his team to greater success. Sometimes, the expectations were based on poor assumptions, but rewarded the surprise. After all, how could we have been so wrong? It must be the coach and the team that magically got better than expected! The award becomes one big 'I Can't Believe It's Not Butter' commercial. Mark Daigneault won Coach of the Year last season because what we thought was a pretty good Oklahoma City Thunder team was the best team in the vaunted West. You surprised us and surpassed our decently high expectations for you! So you win! The Thunder are even better this season and have been the most dominant team in league history. They have the highest margin of victory we've ever seen. Daigneault is fifth in betting odds at +8000. Why? Because he's not a surprise. I'm not even sure this is a bad way of looking at it. Maybe that truly is the best coaching job, when you surprise everybody and exceed expectations in such a dramatic way. But then you start trying to decipher if the biggest surprise should constitute the biggest coaching award. Let's get into this year's race. Two Honorable Mentions: Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies | Daigneault Speaking of surprises, nobody had Redick's Lakers being this good. Nobody had them trading for Luka Dončić before the season either, so this team is full of surprises. The Lakers are second in the West right now, and their midseason turnaround has been remarkable. And considering all that's happened, I'm not sure it should have been expected in the slightest. Trading Anthony Davis for Dončić isn't a downgrade, but it makes learning things on the fly difficult. They had help by getting the All-Star break shortly after the trade, but that's not a lot of time to figure out how to make this work while still bringing the star you acquired back from a calf injury that cost him over a month. Advertisement The Lakers were 12-11 on Dec. 6 with the No. 12 offense and No. 26 defense. A different way of putting that was only the Utah Jazz, Bulls, New Orleans Pelicans and Washington Wizards were worse at defending. Since then, the Lakers have gone 27-10 (fourth-best record), their offense is 10th and their defense is second in the league. Only OKC has been better at defending during that stretch. Since the Dončić trade, the Lakers are 12-2 with the best defense in basketball. Some of that is personnel, but a lot of that is coaching. I know, I know. But hear me out for a minute. The Cavs have the best record in the NBA. The betting odds have Atkinson running away with this award. He's -1000, with Bickerstaff coming in at +700. The Cavs are on their third different winning streak of at least 12 victories. No other team in NBA history has ever done that. The 1999-2000 Lakers had three different 11-game win streaks. The 1980-81 Philadelphia 76ers and 2011-12 San Antonio Spurs both had three different 10-game win streaks. Three different streaks of at least 12 wins hadn't happened until last night. And who knows where this one goes? There are so many reasons Atkinson should win this award. He definitely surprised us. So many criticized the firing of Bickerstaff in Cleveland because he was scapegoated. The combination of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell felt too redundant. Same with the combination of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. We spent all summer saying the Cavs needed to break up both pairings if they wanted a chance of taking down Boston, or even making it to the conference finals to lose to the Boston Celtics. The Cavs have already clinched a playoff berth. They've already surpassed their preseason over/under total. However, is it a bigger surprise than what Bickerstaff has done with the Pistons? This was one of the worst teams in NBA history a year ago. They had the longest losing streak in NBA history. Monty Williams looked like he was actively trying to get fired by playing Isaiah Livers so much that they had to trade him to get him out of the rotation, and playing Killian Hayes so much that the team had to cut him from the roster. The team added Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, Simone Fontecchio, and Ron Holland III in the offseason. Did you see those additions leading to a 21-win improvement with 19 games left to play? If you did, please email me the Powerball numbers for next week. I think it's fair to wonder if turning a good but malfunctioning roster from the No. 4 seed to the No. 1 seed in the East is more impressive and a bigger surprise than turning one of the worst teams in NBA history into a top-six team in the East. I'd lean toward Bickerstaff right now, but I'm torn on it. 5 Honorable Mentions: Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers | Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets Quick-hitter: The consistency of this season, plus the success of the Celtics, keeps Tatum in the mix here for now. But you have to be honest about the possibility of Curry, James or Brunson finding their way onto this ballot. That's not a knock on Tatum either, and I know Boston pushes this narrative that he's not respected. I don't know how that's possible for a four-time All-NBA selection. There are a lot of moving parts and deserving consideration for top players peaking toward the end of the season. Advertisement Quick-hitter: Normally, you worry about the Bucks not being able to defend if Giannis isn't on the court. This season, the Bucks can't score when he's on the bench. And while their offense is good with Giannis and Damian Lillard on the floor together, they actually score more efficiently when it's just Giannis out there. He's become so careful and intentional in how he attacks offensively that he's turned into the modern-day Shaquille O'Neal in the paint. The story of the greatest players in NBA history. In 100 riveting profiles, top basketball writers justify their selections and uncover the history of the NBA in the process. The story of the greatest players in NBA history. Quick-hitter: Maybe this ends up looking like the year Paul George finished third in MVP voting because we knew it was just a two-man race between Giannis and James Harden. However, it's time Mitchell got more praise for the season he's having. We know this is a two-horse race. So maybe third place in MVP ends up being its own scramble. Mitchell has been about as valuable and self-sacrificing as you could hope a star to be when they're trying to further the new team culture. That matters here. Quick-hitter: We've talked before about the historic seasons both of these candidates are having. And the individual aspects of each player and the games they have are truly fascinating when it comes to what we're watching and what you want to value in this award race. Ultimately, it might just come down to team success, and SGA has a big advantage there for two reasons. 1) His team is just a lot better top-to-bottom. 2) The Thunder are light-years ahead of Denver in the standings. Jokić has been unreal, but making up 11 games in the standings is asking a lot when deciphering their values for this award. The Thunder have been the most dominant team ever and might set the record for most double-digit wins in a season. They're 10 off the record (50) with 20 games to play. That dominance pretty much only happens when SGA is on the court. Two Honorable Mentions: Lu Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder | Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors Jackson recently suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain, and it has a chance of costing him eligibility for the award. Because of the 65-game rule and the stipulation that you have to hit 20 minutes in these games, Jackson's 59 games are really like 56. According to injury expert Jeff Stotts, the average time missed with an injury like this is roughly three weeks. The Grizzlies said he's on a week-to-week basis. If he misses three weeks, he'll be in the range of needing to play in nine of the final 11 games of the season when he's back. Did you see the way the Hawks stole the game from the Grizzlies on Monday? After making a big fourth-quarter comeback to tie the game, the Hawks needed to get a final stop to hope to force overtime. For some reason, Desmond Bane decided trying to score on Daniels at the end of the game was a good idea. So he went at him, and instead of the Hawks hoping for overtime, this happened. CARIS LEVERT SCORES OFF THE DYSON DANIELS STEAL 😤😤 Hawks get the victory as time expires! #TissotBuzzerBeater #YourTimeDefinesYourGreatness — NBA (@NBA) March 4, 2025 Daniels is so good at getting steals or deflections that I'm shocked when teams go at him on last-second possessions. Just have your second-best player try to score and win the game! At least you're more likely to get a shot off. I've long thought the deflection stat is extremely overrated. It doesn't mean your team got a stop. You just momentarily disrupted the offensive possession for your opponent. It doesn't tell a complete story. I'm starting to think Daniels and his deflections are the exception. What keeps Daniels from being the frontrunner is that the Hawks' defense is terrible, though it's a lot better when he's off the floor. That's probably a statistical anomaly because of whom he's playing alongside. But it's not even a Trae Young thing. It's just a Hawks thing. Advertisement The Jackson injury made Mobley a significant betting favorite. He's currently -200, with Daniels coming in second at +400. As I've mentioned here before, I had Mobley right in lockstep with Victor Wembanyama before the Spurs phenom went down with deep vein thrombosis in his shoulder, which cost him the rest of this season and award eligibility. With Wemby out of the picture, Mobley should be the winner. The Cavs have thrived off his defensive presence. Two Honorable Mentions: Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks | Kel'el Ware, Miami Heat Quick-hitter: I'm rewarding Edey's consistency over a recency bias for Ware. That's not to say Ware isn't worthy of getting into the mix for the balloting. He's been really good, but it took him a bit longer to start finding success on the court for Miami. Edey was good right away, and even though he battled some injuries and bruises, he's still pretty important for the Memphis rotations. Quick-hitter: Castle is the current betting favorite at -225, and he's making a big push lately with some great games. With Wemby out of the mix, there's opportunity to be more of a scorer. Rookie of the Year voters do love scoring from that position, but this season's crop doesn't exactly have much consistent scoring. At least not since Jared McCain went down. Castle will probably win this award off name recognition and a late push, but he's not my current pick. Quick-hitter: Once McCain got hurt, Wells immediately took the title of the best rookie from start of the season through the current point. I know there isn't anything sexy about what he's doing. He's just been an extremely solid player with good numbers and a positive impact. He's really had one bad shooting month, and everything else has been good across the board. If we're comparing him and Castle, the Spurs rookie couldn't make a shot consistently until January. And when things are pretty even, team success will factor in for me. Wells has started almost all season for a really good Memphis team. Two Honorable Mentions: Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves | De'Andre Hunter, Cleveland Cavaliers Quick-hitter: I moved Jerome over Hunter because I'm giving Jerome the great team boost here. Now, Hunter is on this team too, but it's only been for like a month. He's been killer in that month, just like he was in Atlanta. Amazingly, the Cavs have been better with Jerome on the court this season than when he's on the bench. That's a big part of Cleveland's success. They don't lose anything when their All-Star guards leave the floor, and he can play with either of them for extended minutes. Advertisement Also, here's a weird thing: The Cleveland broadcast recently has said the award should go to Hunter without question. He's been there for a month, but they're co-opting his time on the Hawks? We even heard Mitchell briefly name him after the win Wednesday night, but you could see him quickly drop Jerome's name in there too as a possibility. This feels like a directive from high up in the organization to get Hunter the award. Quick-hitter: I've been thinking about just how impactful and integral Beasley has been to the Pistons' success. He shoots 43 percent from 3 in the clutch and is having a historic season that puts him in the same class as what Curry and Klay Thompson have done. The Pistons are a winning team with him and a slightly losing team without him. I think that all matters, and his performance might mean more to Detroit than Pritchard's does for Boston. I was prepared to write a whole argument about it this week. Then Pritchard scored 43 points and hit 10 3-pointers off the bench against Portland Wednesday night. It's Pritchard's for at least another week. OMG 😱 — Boston Celtics (@celtics) March 6, 2025 Two Honorable Mentions: Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets | Pritchard Quick-hitter: I struggle with whether Daniels should be the leader for this award. I think there should be a bigger emphasis on players going from good-to-great, but Daniels went from mostly an afterthought you hope could be healthy to a valuable role player who might win DPOY. He's improved his shot, and his defense has gone from disruptive to otherworldly most nights. Quick-hitter: The argument against Cunningham mostly centers around two things. His numbers aren't that different when you adjust for pace. His percentages and efficiency are pretty much the same as last season. And even when we see a big jump in the rebounding and assist numbers, it is accompanied by a big jump in turnovers. However, to be doing this on a team that is winning feels like improvement. Maybe players should be awarded more for going from an atrocious team to maintaining these numbers on a playoff team? Quick-hitter: I still feel like Mobley is the most improved guy, even though all the betting odds have Cunningham as the most likely to win it. There's a very good debate to be had between Cunningham and Mobley. Does it make it even more fun that they were 1-2 in the 2021 NBA Draft? Is that something just nerds like me enjoy mentioning? Please don't answer that. (Top photo of J.B. Bickerstaff: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
New York Times
27-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NBA Awards Watch: Evan Mobley leads for Defensive Player of the Year with Wemby out
We're doing Awards Watch every Thursday until the end of the regular season. Each week we'll emphasize a new award. Last week, we looked at the betting odds favorites from our friends at BetMGM and ranked the candidates based on those odds. Two things have changed for this week. 1) I'm going to pick the ballot (with how I'm leaning right now) for each award, along with some honorable mentions; 2) Victor Wembanyama was diagnosed with a deep vein thrombosis after we posted last week's Awards Watch. He's out for the year and won't make the 65-game mark to qualify. That changes multiple awards ballots. The biggest one is Defensive Player of the Year, which we will emphasize this week, along with quick-hitter thoughts for all other awards. There were two big takeaways for me after last week. First, Wembanyama was such an overwhelming favorite to win DPOY that it felt confusing to me why he'd hold such a commanding lead. It wasn't that he was favored. It's that he was favored in a way that almost made it seem like every other candidate was going to be taken off the board. That's not to say Wemby wasn't deserving of it, either. He was before the DVT ended his season. But that brings me to the second takeaway: Evan Mobley not being in contention for this award was nonsensical. You can even throw Jaren Jackson Jr. into the mix, as he does a great job of anchoring a very good Memphis defense. Advertisement The one-sided race could have just been because all the betting money was headed that way, so the odds adjust to give you reasons to bet on other players. Or maybe all of my fellow voters were going to overwhelmingly vote for Wemby? Regardless, this award race has new life after the unfortunate news about Wemby's season. Two Honorable Mentions: Lu Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder | Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets The steals stat can be one of the weaker stats when trying to prove someone is a good defender. If an offensive player just loses his dribble and the opponent picks up the ball, it's a steal. You could play the passing lanes all game long, guess correctly on two of them, and averaging two steals per game will make it look like you know what you're doing out there on defense. It's not a good stat. But it feels like every one of Daniels' steals are earned and devastating to the offensive rhythm of the guy he's guarding. Daniels is averaging a ridiculous 3.1 steals per game, and these aren't cheap ones either. He's locking down opponents. He's navigating screens. He's anticipating movement and cutting it off. He has bear traps for hands to clamp down on the leather if it gets ever so slightly out of your control. Alvin Robertson was the last player to average at least three steals per game. That was in 1991. JJJ won this award in 2023, and he might add his second DPOY trophy. On the surface, you may look at his numbers and not be blown away. He's blocking 1.7 shots and getting 1.3 steals per game. That's not bad at all. People love throwing out stocks as a stat. I'm not talking about blue-chip or penny or IPO stocks. We're talking about combining blocks and steals into a single stat. Why? Because it's a bigger number than just throwing 1.7 and 1.3 out there. Two years ago, he averaged three blocks and one steal, or four stocks! If you're into the past comparison game when deciding if a player is deserving of an award, I never think it's a relevant argument to make. Advertisement What is a relevant argument to make is that the Grizzlies have the ninth-best defense in the NBA, and it's nearly six points per 100 possessions better when Jackson is on the floor versus not on it. There is a lot of noise in on/off offensive and defensive ratings, but it's a decent stat to take with a big ol' grain of salt stapled to it. If you extrapolated the Grizzlies' defense with Jackson on the floor over an entire season, Memphis would have the second-best defense in the NBA. Jackson isn't the shot-blocker he was two years ago, but he's also tied for the lowest foul rate of his career. He's staying on the court and not fouling out. It's having a big-time impact. As of now, Mobley would be my pick for DPOY. And I thought he had a pretty even case with Wemby when the San Antonio Spurs big man was still eligible. Mobley has been nothing short of spectacular on the defensive end of the floor. His blocks (1.6) and steals (0.9) averages are even lower than Jackson's. Yes, that also means his stocks (2.5) average is lower. But that's fine. Those stats don't define what Mobley is capable of defensively, just like they don't define what JJJ does there either. Mobley's capability of defending one through five might be unmatched in today's NBA. Draymond Green and Bam Adebayo can do it. Jackson is pretty good at staying with guards on the perimeter. Mobley might be the best at it. The Cavs have a really good defense, just like Memphis. They give up 110.9 points per 100 possessions, which is good for seventh. That's 0.6 points per 100 possessions better than Memphis on the season. Much like Jackson, Mobley has a great impact on his team's defense. Cleveland gives up 112.1 points per 100 possessions when Mobley is on the bench. That drops to 106.6 with Mobley on the floor. And, before you chalk that up to Jarrett Allen being on the floor with him, that's not necessarily the failsafe here. Basically, you're looking at Mobley as the reason for Cleveland's success on defense. It's not just Allen making up for his shortcomings, which actually seemed to be the suggestion of the numbers in previous seasons. Mobley is making this defensive machine work, and he's doing it with two small guards getting a lot of minutes. We still have a lot of season left, and I could definitely see Jackson and Mobley exchanging spots in the top two almost nightly, but Mobley is the guy for me as of now. This was another award that shifted with the Wembanyama news, although he didn't have a real chance of winning MVP. BetMGM had him in the top five for betting odds, but you were looking at everybody just trying to fill out a ballot by default. And Wemby's name carries some betting weight, as we've learned this season. This is still a two-horse race, as we discussed last week, but you have to fill out a five-man ballot, and how the end of that ballot shakes out could be fascinating. Advertisement Five Honorable Mentions: Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | Kyrie Irving, Dallas Mavericks | Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets Quick-hitter: Tatum's numbers are good, and his team has the third-best record in the NBA. He's definitely going to be in the mix for this, and my guess is he'll make everybody's five-man ballot. I'm just not sure he'll be able to climb higher than fourth unless another injury happens to a major star. Quick-hitter: Mitchell is not in the betting odds, but his team has the best record in the NBA. I also think Mitchell's willingness to buy into Kenny Atkinson's system and reduce his minutes/stats for the greater good of the team shows immense value. His sacrifice and buy-in are big reasons the Cavs have the best record in the league. GO DEEPER Cavaliers ready to take on Celtics after another blowout win: 'You don't find this often' Quick-hitter: If Antetokounmpo can keep his averages (31.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 5.8 assists) the rest of the season, he'll join Wilt Chamberlain (twice) and Elgin Baylor as the only players in league history to average at least 31-12-5. Milwaukee not being better likely keeps him out of the mix for the top spot. Quick-hitter: Even though SGA (-500) is a significant betting favorite over Jokić (+350), do not count out Jokić grabbing the top spot by the end of the season. He's averaging 29.2 points, 12.6 rebounds and 10.4 assists with a ridiculous 66.3 percent true shooting mark. And his on/off net rating split is still holding as an extreme number, with the Nuggets being 21.0 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor. Denver might need to get closer than nine games back of Oklahoma City, though. Quick-hitter: The Thunder could lose for two straight weeks, and they'd still have a stranglehold on the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. That doesn't appear to be going away any time soon, especially since this team barely loses. SGA is a remarkable scorer, and that appears to be what people know him best as. He can get into the lane with the best of them by changing speeds and having a counter to whatever the defense tries to make him do. He crushes in the midrange and gets to the free-throw line a ton because he's a relentless attacker. Nobody drives more than he does, and it's not even close. But one thing we can't forget about SGA is his defense. That might be the difference between him and Jokić, aside from the team record. Jokić is a good defender. SGA is a great defender. They have different responsibilities and that should factor in. It's more difficult to anchor a defense than be the resistance at the point of attack. SGA is a complete player, and his historic season has made him the favorite. It feels like every time I take a look at the Rookie of the Year betting odds, they've changed to include a new rookie who has previously had a good couple of weeks. Such is life in a rookie class that isn't exactly screaming standout. But we should always look at the entirety of the season and not just get caught up in recency. Also, it still sucks that Jared McCain got hurt, because he was going to run away with this. Two Honorable Mentions: Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards | Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies Quick-hitter: He's proven to be another gem the Heat have found in the middle of the first round, joining guys like Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyler Herro. Ware hasn't had a complete season, but his play as of late shows you this is a key figure for the Heat moving forward. Advertisement Quick-hitter: You can make the argument that Castle has shown flashes of being the best player in the future, but that's not what this award is about. Castle has been a solid defender for a rookie, and a good playmaker for a non-point guard. But he still struggles to consistently make shots. Quick-hitter: Wells has flat-out been the best rookie this season, outside of McCain and the start he was off to before he hurt his knee. That's not to denigrate the other candidates, because they've had moments and stretches to make you take notice. Wells has been as consistent as anybody else, and he's giving this rookie class the most complete season so far. He would be just the second rookie since the NBA/ABA merger to win the award as a second-round pick. Can you name the other without looking it up? Two Honorable Mentions: Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves | Ty Jerome, Cleveland Cavaliers Quick-hitter: So far in Cleveland, Hunter has mostly come off the bench, continuing his case for Sixth Man of the Year. Had he been doing this on a better team like Cleveland all season, he might be the favorite. Quick-hitter: If Payton Pritchard is hearing any footsteps in this race, it's those of Beasley. He's having a truly historic 3-point shooting season, even in a league full of incredible 3-point-heaving campaigns. He's hitting 42.5 percent on 9.4 attempts from distance per game. He's played in every game. If Beasley plays in all 82 this season, his pace will put him at the sixth-most 3-pointers made in a single season. It's possible he finishes seventh, depending on what Anthony Edwards does. Beasley is a big reason the Pistons are so good. Quick-hitter: It's still Pritchard's award to lose, but he's not quite the lock he was a month ago. His odds are at -175 with Beasley (+300) closing in. His impact on the floor is incredible, and he doesn't really turn it over at all. His 3-point shooting fits into what Boston is looking to do with any lineup on the floor, and he's made the attack that much deadlier. Imagine if some of his teammates can get back to how they consistently shot the ball last season. Pritchard will probably win the award, but he has more work to do. Two Honorable Mentions: Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets | Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder Quick-hitter: With the recent slide of the Rockets, I decided to move Jenkins into the top three and bump Udoka down to an honorable mention. I'm not sure that will hold, but Jenkins has brought the Grizzlies back to their winning ways while coaching a top offense and defense. A lot of young guys are in the mix too. Advertisement Quick-hitter: It's kind of cool that Bickerstaff is second here, and the guy who replaced him in Cleveland is first. He took a disaster in Detroit and turned it into one of the best success stories of the last couple of years. The Pistons' turnaround is all due to Bickerstaff coaching them the right way and getting them to play defense and embrace the moment. Quick-hitter: You can't say more about what Atkinson has done in Cleveland. The Cavs have the best record in the league, and he turned a mediocre offense into one of the best in NBA history. And they didn't really change the personnel much to do it. This was all Atkinson believing in his coaching system and getting the players to buy in. He's come a long way since being ousted from Brooklyn. Two Honorable Mentions: Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets | Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics Quick-hitter: Cunningham is the favorite, and he probably will win it. I don't think it would be a bad decision either. Ultimately, I might vote for him. We saw a lot of these improvements last season, though, and I try to remain cognizant of things like that when it comes to this award. Quick-hitter: Daniels was mostly an afterthought because of injuries before he joined the Hawks. But he was a key part of that Dejounte Murray trade because his defensive capabilities have the potential to be highly disruptive. We've seen a lot more comfort from him on the offensive end of the floor, and it means you don't have to sub him out to balance your attack. Quick-hitter: Mobley is doing things on offense this season that we didn't see much of, if at all, last season. He initiates the offense like a true point-big. His big-to-big passing with Allen has helped add another way of attacking the rim. He's been getting better stretching the floor, although he's not making defenses think twice about it yet. Mobley has become a top prospect with a lot of promise to all tangible things that help his team win now. And it's only the beginning for him. Sign up to get The Bounce, the essential NBA newsletter from Zach Harper and The Athletic staff, delivered free to your inbox. (Top photo of Evan Mobley defending Jamal Murray: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
New York Times
22-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NHL awards watch: Quinn Hughes or Cale Makar for the Norris?
Throughout the season I'll be breaking down the numbers behind the race for each major player award: the Hart, the Norris, the Calder, the Selke, the Vezina, the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard. Numbers of course aren't everything, but they add much-needed context to the awards race and can help shine a light on players deserving of more recognition while adding caveats to other players that may have some warts. This post will present the top 10 for each category based on a set criteria of guidelines. There is plenty of room for discussion and debate within (and outside) those guidelines. Advertisement Fresh off the 4 Nations Face-Off, it's time to check in for another Awards Watch. While there hasn't been a whole lot of change in the new year, especially at the top, it's still worthwhile to see how the contenders are progressing — and whether any challengers have emerged. Aside from the Vezina Trophy, each race is still close enough that the finish could be exciting down the stretch. Will the current leaders hold on, or will they be usurped at the last minute? Based on my interpretation of the numbers, here's how each key race currently shakes out. Data as of Feb. 9 Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. Criteria: Skaters ranked by Net Rating, adjusted by position. There are a lot of great choices for the Hart this season and it's hard to go truly wrong. Leon Draisaitl is the current leader in Net Rating at plus-20.3 for good reason. He's putting up a career-best all-around season as Edmonton's primary driver — no small feat on that team. Draisaitl leads the league in goals with 40, is second in points with 83 and has played some shockingly Selke-calibre defense. With a plus-4.6 Defensive Rating, Draisaitl would be a very worthy Selke candidate for anyone willing to look past his lack of penalty-kill time. The fact Draisaitl is scoring as much as he is on top of that is special — the kind of combination that usually puts Auston Matthews near the top of this list. This year, it's Draisaitl providing the rare blend of lethal scoring and two-way ability. He's been a world-class 200-foot player. As good as Draisaitl has been, however, he's not quite running away with things just yet. There's still time for players to make things interesting. Could a defenseman win (or just be nominated!) for the first time in over two decades? Quinn Hughes has the narrative for it given how well he's played and how poor the rest of his team has been. But Zach Werenski has a similar argument to be made in Columbus and Cale Makar has been excellent, too. Advertisement Could a goalie win for the first time in a decade? Connor Hellebuyck is making a strong case of his own given he's saved 28 goals above expected this season. By pure value, that's eight goals clear of Draisaitl. Anyone wishing to go the goalie route this year wouldn't be wrong to do so. Hellebuyck ranks seventh here, though, because his value lands in the 99.8th percentile of goalies. That's lower than the six skaters above him compared to other skaters. Comparing goalie value to player value is tricky, but that method aligns with how infrequently goalies win MVP — they need to be head-and-shoulders above the field. Is Hellebuyck far enough ahead? There are also other forwards who can challenge Draisaitl. Nathan MacKinnon is leading the league in points while Nikita Kucherov (with an improved defensive game!) is leading in points per game and primary points. Both would be worthy options. And then of course there's still Connor McDavid, who sits just outside the top five even in a down year. Don't count him out — the best player in the world can still surge down the stretch. Draisaitl is the top choice at the moment, but some worthy competitors can still make this race interesting. Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position. Criteria: Defensemen who play top-pairing minutes, ranked by Net Rating. Hughes has been the best defenseman in the league this season. Again. Per 82 games, he's on pace for 103 points, impressively doing so on a team struggling to generate any offense around him. Hughes leads his team in points by a hefty margin, producing despite a degree of difficulty the other top candidates aren't bothered by. That, along with some strong underlying numbers, brings Hughes' Net Rating to plus-28.1 per 82 games. That's the best mark in the league for a defenseman. It shows in his tracked data from Corey Sznajder as well. When it comes to creating offense and moving the puck up ice, Hughes is always at the top or right near it. The question with Hughes is how much missing eight games should hurt his chances. To me, that's not enough time missed to tilt the scales elsewhere. Some may disagree, though, given Makar isn't that far behind Hughes. Makar is on pace for 32 goals and 91 points and has been stronger defensively than Hughes while playing tougher minutes. He's been available for 100 percent of Colorado's games, giving him the current Net Rating lead at plus-18.8. That's 2.7 goals up on Hughes. Per 82 games, Makar is at plus-27, 1.1 goals back of Hughes. Advertisement Some folks out there will discredit Makar for how he does without MacKinnon — or simply because he has a player of MacKinnon's caliber to lean on, which Hughes does not. While Makar's performance away from MacKinnon does poke some holes in his case, it is important to not be so decisive when apportioning credit. The elite results Makar and MacKinnon earn together (62 percent xG and 61 percent of actual goals) aren't 100 percent because of MacKinnon — Makar deserves equal credit for the beautiful music they make together. Similarly, the lesser results Makar posts away from MacKinnon aren't 100 percent because of Makar either, especially since MacKinnon's results away from Makar are also not great. Context matters here and it's clear Makar's job when playing away from MacKinnon leans more toward the defensive side on a team that isn't very deep at forward. And it's noteworthy that his plus-5.2 Defensive Rating is highest among the top 10 defenders here. In terms of all-around ability, Makar has a strong argument. After those two, Werenski is having a marvelous season and is the clear-cut No. 3. He has a real shot at challenging the top two and has been incredible this season at both ends of the ice. Werenski has entrenched himself as a franchise defenseman and a no-doubt top-five defender. His on-ice metrics are a shade behind Hughes and Makar, even when accounting for team quality, but the fact he's kept up with their production is meaningful. Those three should be on every ballot, but after them is where things get a little murky. Evan Bouchard, despite what some of his detractors say, is having another elite season cementing himself as one of the game's best. While his personal production may be down, Bouchard has showcased an improved defensive game where he's cut down on his chances and goals against. Adam Fox is here as usual and it feels like his season is flying under the radar given the state of the team around him. Fox is putting up career-high marks across the board in his relative on-ice impacts and has been a shining beacon amid an otherwise dim season for the Rangers. The team earns 57 percent of actual goals and 56 percent of expected goals with Fox on the ice this year, the latter of which is a career-best mark for Fox. Josh Morrissey, Rasmus Dahlin and Victor Hedman are staples worthy of consideration. As is Mattias Ekholm, Edmonton's defensive conscience next to Bouchard. But the real surprise here is Thomas Harley. If you were shocked by his call-up to Team Canada, make sure you take in some Dallas hockey down the stretch — especially as he fills in for the injured Miro Heiskanen. Harley's game has taken a big step as he moves up the lineup and his impacts at five-on-five have been extremely strong. He's a puck-moving force. Given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game. Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team's short-handed minutes and face top-line forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating. There's still a big question at the top of the Selke ballot: which Panther should it be? Advertisement Should it be Aleksander Barkov, the guy who won last year and has always been Florida's defensive leader? Or should it be Sam Reinhart, Barkov's wingman who has arguably had a stronger defensive season? In a sense, the Selke situation is basically a defensive version of the Hart argument in Edmonton. We know Barkov is the best defensive forward in the world, just like we know Connor McDavid is the best player in the world. But this year, it's the sidekicks that have been more impressive and maybe they deserve their flowers for that. Between Barkov and Reinhart, it's Reinhart with the stronger expected goals against rate (1.75 per 60 to Barkov's 1.96) and it's Reinhart with the stronger goals against rate too (1.68 to 1.77). Reinhart's relative impact on expected goals is even stronger thanks to the time Barkov missed where Reinhart continued to excel defensively. That's what leads to Reinhart's decisive 2.2-goal lead when it comes to Defensive Rating, a gap that wouldn't be made up with Barkov playing as many games either. And for those that view the Selke as an all-around award, Reinhart has the lead there as well with a slightly stronger expected and actual goals percentage. It's hard not to go with the incumbent, especially for an award that often comes down to reputation. Picking Barkov wouldn't be the wrong answer given his impact. But Reinhart has been so good defensively this year and it would be a shame not to honor that. That's my top two. After that it's about detangling more teammates who have been shutdown forces. Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel have been awesome in Tampa Bay, though not quite to the same degree as the Florida duo. Tough minutes, defensive zone draws, killing penalties — the Lightning duo have been incredible. Tampa Bay has allowed just 2.09 expected goals against per 60 with Cirelli on the ice while Hagel isn't far behind. They've made life easier for Tampa Bay's offensive minds and at least one deserves proper representation on the ballot. After that quartet, there are still some other great options. Jordan Staal (my only exception to the 16 minutes per game rule) and Phillip Danault have been as strong as usual. Ditto for Nico Hischier, who is becoming a Selke mainstay. Anton Lundell is following in his captain's footsteps. And the Vegas duo of Mark Stone and Jack Eichel have been dominant, too. There are a lot of strong choices, but the top of the ballot starts in Florida. Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL. Criteria: Rookie skaters ranked by Net Rating, adjusted by position. Based on Net Rating, there is no gap between Macklin Celebrini and Lane Hutson. Picking between the two will be a challenge. Both have at least 40 points on the season — an impressive feat for both considering Celebrini managed it in 45 games while Hutson is doing it as a defenseman. Both players are major offensive catalysts for their teams with equally strong relative impacts at five-on-five, though Hutson does give a bit more back defensively. Both dazzle beyond just scoring, too, with some electric highlight reels that hint at some tantalizing upside. Both Celebrini and Hutson are already stars in this league, setting a course for superstardom. Advertisement But they have not been the best rookies this season. That honor should belong to Dustin Wolf, who is putting himself in the Vezina conversation as a rookie goaltender. Wolf has almost single-handedly dragged a very poor Flames team into the West wild-card race — that's how good he's been. The Calder should be his to lose. Comparing a skater's value to a goalie's value is a challenge. When it comes to awards voting, the difference between the two often has to be overwhelmingly in the goalie's favor to make up for the difference in opportunity the goalie has to accrue value. Wolf has a strong case with how he's played this season. Wolf's 10.9 goals saved above expected is a top-10 mark among starters, landing in the 85th percentile among all goalies. By that same rubric, Celebrini's and Hutson's Net Ratings land in the 65th percentile among skaters. Apples to apples, Wolf comes out ahead by a significant margin. For Wolf to land in the 65th percentile, his GSAx would have to be closer to 5.3. That difference certainly feels overwhelming enough to have Wolf as the current Calder front-runner. Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position. Criteria: Goaltenders who have played half of their team's games or more, ranked by goals saved above expected courtesy of Evolving Hockey and MoneyPuck. Not much new here: The Vezina is still Hellebuyck's to lose. There should be no question about who the league's best goalie is. Hellebuyck now has a .925 on the season and has saved 28 goals above expected, both of which are league-best marks. He is by far the biggest reason the Jets are a top-two team this season and his year-to-year consistency at this level is nothing short of remarkable. The gap between Hellebuyck and the next-best goalie has closed a bit, though, with Logan Thompson entering the chat. Since the start of the new year, Thompson has saved 11.7 goals above expected to Hellebuyck's 3.5, according to Evolving Hockey. The difference between the two is now just under five goals. It's not enough of a surge to make the Vezina race interesting yet, but at the very least, it makes Thompson the clear-cut No. 2 option after Hellebuyck. Advertisement After that is where things get interesting. Two goalies on bad teams — Lukas Dostal and Joey Daccord — have admirably held their own despite difficulties in front of them. Ditto for Igor Shesterkin on a middling Rangers team. Mackenzie Blackwood, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Joseph Woll have been rock-solid for their respective clubs, and rookie Wolf is turning heads in a major way. All very worthy candidates — but they're fighting for third. The top two look fairly set. Given to the player who leads the National Hockey League in scoring points at the end of the regular season. Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season point total. This race will probably go down to the wire and will probably be between MacKinnon and Kucherov, both of whom are projected for 126 points. MacKinnon is the current leader with 87, but it's actually Kucherov who's leading in points per game at 1.58. Will the final 27 games be enough for Kucherov to make up the five-point gap? It'll be tight. Over in Edmonton, Draisaitl now looks like the favorite to challenge the top two. He's surged over the last month while McDavid has fallen off pace a bit (and missed time to suspension, too). Draisaitl is only four points back of MacKinnon with two games in hand, and with the way he's playing this year, there's a decent chance he can continue to produce above his projected output. Given to the NHL's top goal scorer. Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season goal total. Draisaitl pretty much has this one in the bag. He's already seven goals up on the next closest player, William Nylander, and has a stronger track record, too. He's projected to win by 10 goals for that reason and, with a projected 57 goals, is the only player this year expected to eclipse the 50-goal mark. Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and Corey Sznajder's All Three Zones project (Photo of Cale Makar: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
