NBA Awards Watch: Evan Mobley leads for Defensive Player of the Year with Wemby out

New York Times

27-02-2025

We're doing Awards Watch every Thursday until the end of the regular season. Each week we'll emphasize a new award. Last week, we looked at the betting odds favorites from our friends at BetMGM and ranked the candidates based on those odds. Two things have changed for this week. 1) I'm going to pick the ballot (with how I'm leaning right now) for each award, along with some honorable mentions; 2) Victor Wembanyama was diagnosed with a deep vein thrombosis after we posted last week's Awards Watch. He's out for the year and won't make the 65-game mark to qualify.
That changes multiple awards ballots. The biggest one is Defensive Player of the Year, which we will emphasize this week, along with quick-hitter thoughts for all other awards.
There were two big takeaways for me after last week. First, Wembanyama was such an overwhelming favorite to win DPOY that it felt confusing to me why he'd hold such a commanding lead. It wasn't that he was favored. It's that he was favored in a way that almost made it seem like every other candidate was going to be taken off the board. That's not to say Wemby wasn't deserving of it, either. He was before the DVT ended his season. But that brings me to the second takeaway: Evan Mobley not being in contention for this award was nonsensical. You can even throw Jaren Jackson Jr. into the mix, as he does a great job of anchoring a very good Memphis defense.
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The one-sided race could have just been because all the betting money was headed that way, so the odds adjust to give you reasons to bet on other players. Or maybe all of my fellow voters were going to overwhelmingly vote for Wemby? Regardless, this award race has new life after the unfortunate news about Wemby's season.
Two Honorable Mentions: Lu Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder | Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
The steals stat can be one of the weaker stats when trying to prove someone is a good defender. If an offensive player just loses his dribble and the opponent picks up the ball, it's a steal. You could play the passing lanes all game long, guess correctly on two of them, and averaging two steals per game will make it look like you know what you're doing out there on defense. It's not a good stat. But it feels like every one of Daniels' steals are earned and devastating to the offensive rhythm of the guy he's guarding. Daniels is averaging a ridiculous 3.1 steals per game, and these aren't cheap ones either. He's locking down opponents. He's navigating screens. He's anticipating movement and cutting it off. He has bear traps for hands to clamp down on the leather if it gets ever so slightly out of your control. Alvin Robertson was the last player to average at least three steals per game. That was in 1991.
JJJ won this award in 2023, and he might add his second DPOY trophy. On the surface, you may look at his numbers and not be blown away. He's blocking 1.7 shots and getting 1.3 steals per game. That's not bad at all. People love throwing out stocks as a stat. I'm not talking about blue-chip or penny or IPO stocks. We're talking about combining blocks and steals into a single stat. Why? Because it's a bigger number than just throwing 1.7 and 1.3 out there. Two years ago, he averaged three blocks and one steal, or four stocks! If you're into the past comparison game when deciding if a player is deserving of an award, I never think it's a relevant argument to make.
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What is a relevant argument to make is that the Grizzlies have the ninth-best defense in the NBA, and it's nearly six points per 100 possessions better when Jackson is on the floor versus not on it. There is a lot of noise in on/off offensive and defensive ratings, but it's a decent stat to take with a big ol' grain of salt stapled to it. If you extrapolated the Grizzlies' defense with Jackson on the floor over an entire season, Memphis would have the second-best defense in the NBA. Jackson isn't the shot-blocker he was two years ago, but he's also tied for the lowest foul rate of his career. He's staying on the court and not fouling out. It's having a big-time impact.
As of now, Mobley would be my pick for DPOY. And I thought he had a pretty even case with Wemby when the San Antonio Spurs big man was still eligible. Mobley has been nothing short of spectacular on the defensive end of the floor. His blocks (1.6) and steals (0.9) averages are even lower than Jackson's. Yes, that also means his stocks (2.5) average is lower. But that's fine. Those stats don't define what Mobley is capable of defensively, just like they don't define what JJJ does there either. Mobley's capability of defending one through five might be unmatched in today's NBA. Draymond Green and Bam Adebayo can do it. Jackson is pretty good at staying with guards on the perimeter. Mobley might be the best at it.
The Cavs have a really good defense, just like Memphis. They give up 110.9 points per 100 possessions, which is good for seventh. That's 0.6 points per 100 possessions better than Memphis on the season. Much like Jackson, Mobley has a great impact on his team's defense. Cleveland gives up 112.1 points per 100 possessions when Mobley is on the bench. That drops to 106.6 with Mobley on the floor. And, before you chalk that up to Jarrett Allen being on the floor with him, that's not necessarily the failsafe here.
Basically, you're looking at Mobley as the reason for Cleveland's success on defense. It's not just Allen making up for his shortcomings, which actually seemed to be the suggestion of the numbers in previous seasons. Mobley is making this defensive machine work, and he's doing it with two small guards getting a lot of minutes. We still have a lot of season left, and I could definitely see Jackson and Mobley exchanging spots in the top two almost nightly, but Mobley is the guy for me as of now.
This was another award that shifted with the Wembanyama news, although he didn't have a real chance of winning MVP. BetMGM had him in the top five for betting odds, but you were looking at everybody just trying to fill out a ballot by default. And Wemby's name carries some betting weight, as we've learned this season. This is still a two-horse race, as we discussed last week, but you have to fill out a five-man ballot, and how the end of that ballot shakes out could be fascinating.
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Five Honorable Mentions: Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | Kyrie Irving, Dallas Mavericks | Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets
Quick-hitter: Tatum's numbers are good, and his team has the third-best record in the NBA. He's definitely going to be in the mix for this, and my guess is he'll make everybody's five-man ballot. I'm just not sure he'll be able to climb higher than fourth unless another injury happens to a major star.
Quick-hitter: Mitchell is not in the betting odds, but his team has the best record in the NBA. I also think Mitchell's willingness to buy into Kenny Atkinson's system and reduce his minutes/stats for the greater good of the team shows immense value. His sacrifice and buy-in are big reasons the Cavs have the best record in the league.
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Quick-hitter: If Antetokounmpo can keep his averages (31.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, 5.8 assists) the rest of the season, he'll join Wilt Chamberlain (twice) and Elgin Baylor as the only players in league history to average at least 31-12-5. Milwaukee not being better likely keeps him out of the mix for the top spot.
Quick-hitter: Even though SGA (-500) is a significant betting favorite over Jokić (+350), do not count out Jokić grabbing the top spot by the end of the season. He's averaging 29.2 points, 12.6 rebounds and 10.4 assists with a ridiculous 66.3 percent true shooting mark. And his on/off net rating split is still holding as an extreme number, with the Nuggets being 21.0 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor. Denver might need to get closer than nine games back of Oklahoma City, though.
Quick-hitter: The Thunder could lose for two straight weeks, and they'd still have a stranglehold on the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. That doesn't appear to be going away any time soon, especially since this team barely loses. SGA is a remarkable scorer, and that appears to be what people know him best as. He can get into the lane with the best of them by changing speeds and having a counter to whatever the defense tries to make him do. He crushes in the midrange and gets to the free-throw line a ton because he's a relentless attacker. Nobody drives more than he does, and it's not even close. But one thing we can't forget about SGA is his defense. That might be the difference between him and Jokić, aside from the team record. Jokić is a good defender. SGA is a great defender. They have different responsibilities and that should factor in. It's more difficult to anchor a defense than be the resistance at the point of attack. SGA is a complete player, and his historic season has made him the favorite.
It feels like every time I take a look at the Rookie of the Year betting odds, they've changed to include a new rookie who has previously had a good couple of weeks. Such is life in a rookie class that isn't exactly screaming standout. But we should always look at the entirety of the season and not just get caught up in recency. Also, it still sucks that Jared McCain got hurt, because he was going to run away with this.
Two Honorable Mentions: Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards | Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies
Quick-hitter: He's proven to be another gem the Heat have found in the middle of the first round, joining guys like Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyler Herro. Ware hasn't had a complete season, but his play as of late shows you this is a key figure for the Heat moving forward.
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Quick-hitter: You can make the argument that Castle has shown flashes of being the best player in the future, but that's not what this award is about. Castle has been a solid defender for a rookie, and a good playmaker for a non-point guard. But he still struggles to consistently make shots.
Quick-hitter: Wells has flat-out been the best rookie this season, outside of McCain and the start he was off to before he hurt his knee. That's not to denigrate the other candidates, because they've had moments and stretches to make you take notice. Wells has been as consistent as anybody else, and he's giving this rookie class the most complete season so far. He would be just the second rookie since the NBA/ABA merger to win the award as a second-round pick. Can you name the other without looking it up?
Two Honorable Mentions: Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves | Ty Jerome, Cleveland Cavaliers
Quick-hitter: So far in Cleveland, Hunter has mostly come off the bench, continuing his case for Sixth Man of the Year. Had he been doing this on a better team like Cleveland all season, he might be the favorite.
Quick-hitter: If Payton Pritchard is hearing any footsteps in this race, it's those of Beasley. He's having a truly historic 3-point shooting season, even in a league full of incredible 3-point-heaving campaigns. He's hitting 42.5 percent on 9.4 attempts from distance per game. He's played in every game. If Beasley plays in all 82 this season, his pace will put him at the sixth-most 3-pointers made in a single season. It's possible he finishes seventh, depending on what Anthony Edwards does. Beasley is a big reason the Pistons are so good.
Quick-hitter: It's still Pritchard's award to lose, but he's not quite the lock he was a month ago. His odds are at -175 with Beasley (+300) closing in. His impact on the floor is incredible, and he doesn't really turn it over at all. His 3-point shooting fits into what Boston is looking to do with any lineup on the floor, and he's made the attack that much deadlier. Imagine if some of his teammates can get back to how they consistently shot the ball last season. Pritchard will probably win the award, but he has more work to do.
Two Honorable Mentions: Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets | Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder
Quick-hitter: With the recent slide of the Rockets, I decided to move Jenkins into the top three and bump Udoka down to an honorable mention. I'm not sure that will hold, but Jenkins has brought the Grizzlies back to their winning ways while coaching a top offense and defense. A lot of young guys are in the mix too.
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Quick-hitter: It's kind of cool that Bickerstaff is second here, and the guy who replaced him in Cleveland is first. He took a disaster in Detroit and turned it into one of the best success stories of the last couple of years. The Pistons' turnaround is all due to Bickerstaff coaching them the right way and getting them to play defense and embrace the moment.
Quick-hitter: You can't say more about what Atkinson has done in Cleveland. The Cavs have the best record in the league, and he turned a mediocre offense into one of the best in NBA history. And they didn't really change the personnel much to do it. This was all Atkinson believing in his coaching system and getting the players to buy in. He's come a long way since being ousted from Brooklyn.
Two Honorable Mentions: Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets | Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics
Quick-hitter: Cunningham is the favorite, and he probably will win it. I don't think it would be a bad decision either. Ultimately, I might vote for him. We saw a lot of these improvements last season, though, and I try to remain cognizant of things like that when it comes to this award.
Quick-hitter: Daniels was mostly an afterthought because of injuries before he joined the Hawks. But he was a key part of that Dejounte Murray trade because his defensive capabilities have the potential to be highly disruptive. We've seen a lot more comfort from him on the offensive end of the floor, and it means you don't have to sub him out to balance your attack.
Quick-hitter: Mobley is doing things on offense this season that we didn't see much of, if at all, last season. He initiates the offense like a true point-big. His big-to-big passing with Allen has helped add another way of attacking the rim. He's been getting better stretching the floor, although he's not making defenses think twice about it yet. Mobley has become a top prospect with a lot of promise to all tangible things that help his team win now. And it's only the beginning for him.
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(Top photo of Evan Mobley defending Jamal Murray: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)