NHL Awards Watch: Leon Draisaitl, Cale Makar, Connor Hellebuyck lead key races

New York Times

25-03-2025

Throughout the season I'll be breaking down the numbers behind the race for each major player award: the Hart, the Norris, the Calder, the Selke, the Vezina, the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard. Numbers, of course, aren't everything, but they add much-needed context to the awards race and can help shine a light on players deserving of more recognition while adding caveats to other players that may have some warts. This post will present the top 10 for each category based on a set criteria of guidelines. There is plenty of room for discussion and debate within (and outside) those guidelines.
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We're less than a month away from the season's end. Time for another Awards Watch.
While the front-runners all remain the same from the last edition, most of the races are still very tight and full of intrigue. There are a lot of things to consider for each race, so let's dive in.
Based on my interpretation of the numbers, here's how each of the key races currently shakes out.
Data as of March 23
Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by Net Rating percentile relative to position.
There are six worthy candidates for the Hart Trophy. Let's break them down.
Leon Draisaitl: For a while now it's been clear who the league's best player has been this season. Draisaitl has the most goals, is second in points and has been absurdly dominant at five-on-five. Draisaitl's defensive growth has been a sight to behold and is the cherry on top of his exceptional season. It's what pushes him over the top as the current MVP front-runner. He's earned nearly 60 percent of the goals and expected goals — both career highs or close to it as a result of his improved defensive game. He leads in Net Rating by almost three goals for very good reason.
The real key to Draisaitl's potential victory is the Connor McDavid factor. In past years, the numbers pointed to Draisaitl benefitting greatly from their shared minutes. This season it's been the other way around. Whatever has made McDavid look off this season, it hasn't mattered — Draisaitl has picked up the slack.
I wasn't keen on Draisaitl winning the Hart in 2020 mostly because I believed there were real flaws in his two-way game that took away from his production. Five years later, that criticism comes full circle and I hope people can now see more clearly what I meant in 2020. The difference between 2020 Draisaitl and 2025 Draisaitl should be obvious: this is what an MVP season looks like.
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Someone from Colorado: Is it controversial to say that Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar have been equally valuable this season? Given the state of Colorado's depth for much of the season, I don't really care that much about the weird results away from each other. I do care that when they are together they make some seriously beautiful music and it does feel like some lose sight of that by putting too much stock in their WOWY data. MacKinnon and Makar: both elite. Let's not overthink it.
I would imagine voters will lean more toward MacKinnon as the league's scoring leader, but I do feel that Makar's defensive work along with what he's done offensively makes him just as valuable. Scoring 30 goals, as he's on pace to do, is no small task and does carry some weight compared to a more assist-heavy stat line.
Both are equally deserving, but that lack of separation may be what undoes each of their candidacies. It's hard to pick between the two.
Zach Werenski: The fact that the Blue Jackets are still in the thick of the playoff race is nothing short of a small miracle and they have Werenski to thank for that. He's been the team's engine from the beginning of the season, driving incredible levels of offense while putting on one of the best defensive performances of his career. Werenski has emerged as a clear-cut top-five defenseman in the world and one of the league's most valuable players. A true franchise player, one whose value is right there with the Makars and Hugheses of the world. He's had a seriously special season where the Blue Jackets have earned 58 percent of the goals with him on the ice.
Nikita Kucherov: It's interesting how little buzz Kucherov's season is getting. Yes, he's producing less than last year, but there seems to be a lot more substance to his five-on-five game — especially without the puck. This season the Lightning have given up 2.51 expected goals against per 60 with Kucherov on the ice, down from 2.81 last season. That bump — without much of an offensive sacrifice — has led to a 54.7 percent xG rate. The team is scoring 60.4 percent of the goals, up from just 51.6 percent last season. The change also comes with increased responsibility, spending a fair bit of time on the team's shutdown line with Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel. I'll take a 20-point sacrifice in favor of a 200-foot Kucherov every day of the week.
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Connor Hellebuyck: Goalies don't often get love for the Hart Trophy partly because of the opportunity they have to accrue value. It takes a truly transcendent performance to be considered — is Hellebuyck giving one? He leads all players in total value by 9.1 goals, but for context, Carey Price nearly doubled up the next closest skater and goalie in value (around 19 goals) when he won in 2015. Hellebuyck's separation isn't quite on that level which is part of the reason he ranks sixth in percentile relative to position. He has a strong argument given what he's driven the Jets to accomplish this year. But if the standard is what Price did in 2015, there is a reason Hellebuyck is part of a pack of MVP contenders rather than the one leading it.
Quinn Hughes: For the people who read 'most valuable to his team' as literally as possible, Hughes has the most compelling argument considering how lost the Canucks are without him. There's a 10.4-goal gap between him and the next-best Canuck in Net Rating. For Werenski it's 6.5 goals, for Draisaitl it's 5.6 goals, for Kucherov it's 0.7 goals (apologies to Hagel for being excluded from the list above) and the two Colorado players are tied. Hughes' separation — despite missing 14 games — is his best case.
We're almost at the end of the season and this still doesn't feel like an easy choice. Draisaitl is the front-runner and he'd be my pick today. But him missing some action — depending on how long he's out — could tighten the race.
Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.
Criteria: Defensemen ranked by Net Rating.
How much does playing 14 fewer games matter? That's the question that will decide this year's Norris vote. By total value, Makar holds a 4.5-goal lead over Quinn Hughes in Net Rating. He's been the most valuable defenseman. On a per-82 game basis, Makar's pace of plus-25.9 is a shade behind Hughes' pace at plus-26.2. By the slimmest of margins, Hughes has been the better defenseman this season.
That was on full display against the Rangers over the weekend, a dominant game where Hughes was all over the ice, tilting it significantly in Vancouver's direction. Despite playing on a weaker team with less help, Hughes' xG rate is only marginally behind Makar's (55.8 percent to Makar's 56.1 percent) and the same is true for their goal percentages (57.8 percent to Makar's 58.5 percent). Vancouver's next-best player is nowhere close to the level of MacKinnon, a player Makar shares a lot of ice with. That's the case for Hughes: essentially the same per-game impact with far less help from his own team. Few players control the game as much as Hughes who is one of the game's best transitional players.
Some analytically savvy folks may be shocked that the two grade out so evenly and the difference stems primarily from quality of competition. On both ends of the spectrum, Makar faces some of the most difficult opponents in the league: the best offensive players and the best defensive ones. It's full power versus power, which is part of what makes his output so impressive.
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Yes, of course, it's easier with MacKinnon on the ice at the same time and that's accounted for, but I do think people underrate the degree of difficulty that the toughest minutes entail — even with help. Producing offensively against the best defensive players is hard and Makar creates chances better than any defenseman. Defending against the best offensive players is also hard and it's an area Makar also excels in. That he has to do both, even when he doesn't share the ice with MacKinnon, partly explains some of the weaker xG numbers without him.
Defensively, the difficulty of Makar's minutes ranks in the 98th percentile. Hughes, in comparison, is in the 63rd percentile. Hughes is not sheltered by any means, but he does receive secondary matchups which makes it a bit easier to dominate — even if he doesn't have as much help. It allows him to focus more on offense and control the game. It's a similar strategy that Nashville employs with Roman Josi and Tampa Bay uses with Victor Hedman, one that allows Vancouver to fully utilize and maximize Hughes' gifts with the puck.
Werenski is a strong candidate as well with excellent play at both ends of the ice. The gap between the top three and the rest of the field is considerably large and it would be a shock to see any other defenseman be a finalist. This trio should be a lock.
Beyond them are a lot of usual suspects. Evan Bouchard and Adam Fox remain extremely valuable for their teams, even in down seasons. Thomas Harley has really stepped up this year, while Josh Morrissey has been a rock for Winnipeg. Rasmus Dahlin is one of the few bright spots in Buffalo and Hedman still rules.
The one surprise to some on the list might be John Carlson. He's been a critical part of Washington's epic rise this season and deserves some love for his role in the team's success. His plus-0.26 relative xG rate is a career best and some of his on-ice numbers also rank highly. He may not be scoring at a 70-plus point pace as he did during his Norris contention years, but he's added a lot of substance to his game the last few years. He's been a star for the Capitals this season.
Given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.
Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team's short-handed minutes and face top-line forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating.
The last time a winger won the Selke was Jere Lehtinen in 2002-03, a 21-year drought that should end this season. With a Defensive Rating of plus-8.0, Sam Reinhart has been the league's best defensive forward.
Reinhart's main competition is his linemate and the Selke incumbent Aleksander Barkov. While I don't doubt many voters will lean toward Barkov thanks to his reputation, I do believe that Reinhart has been more impressive defensively this season. He's been on the ice for fewer expected goals against per 60 (1.86 to Barkov's 2.02), similar goals against (1.85 to Barkov's 1.84), and the same level of competition (average Offensive Rating of 2.95). Reinhart has also played 10 more games which increases his total defensive value over Barkov's. Even on a per-game basis, though, Reinhart comes out ahead by 1.4 goals if they played the same number of games.
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I know it's hard to vote against the incumbent and the guy we know is generally the better defensive forward. But if voters can acknowledge that better players can sometimes have worse offensive seasons than their sidekicks (Evgeni Malkin over Sidney Crosby or Leon Draisaitl over Connor McDavid, for example), that same logic should apply to defensive seasons. Almost anyone would take Barkov over Reinhart as a shutdown option in a Game 7 matchup, but Reinhart has still arguably been more impactful this season.
After those two, there are a lot of strong options to fill out the ballot. The Lightning duo of Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel have separated themselves from the pack and are right there with Barkov. Cirelli eats tough minutes and defensive zone starts and has posted some exceptional impacts at five-on-five relative to teammates — slightly better than Barkov's.
Lower down the list, Seth Jarvis is probably the best option from Carolina these days. He's played tougher minutes than Jordan Staal and has been on for fewer expected goals against despite also taking on a heavier offensive workload. Jarvis looks like the next Mark Stone and it's fitting that the two are side-by-side on this list. Stone has had a resurgent defensive season and deserves some consideration. Teammate Jack Eichel also deserves praise given what he's accomplished despite the extreme difficulty of his usage, though it should be noted that much of his impact comes from suppressing actual goals more than chances.
There are a lot of great options this year, but most of them are fighting for fourth and/or fifth. The top three spots, at the very least, belong to someone from the state of Florida.
Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL.
Criteria: Rookie skaters ranked by Net Rating percentile relative to position.
No trophy race has been more of an actual race than this one. At times, all four of Dustin Wolf, Lane Hutson, Macklin Celebrini and Matvei Michkov have had a strong case as the top rookie.
As the season reaches its conclusion, though, the Calder has become a two-player race between Wolf and Hutson. Wolf is having a very special rookie season for a goalie. Hutson is having a very special rookie season for a defenseman. Picking between the two is not easy. Based on their percentile relative to their position, Wolf comes out narrowly ahead. But it's close enough that Hutson has a strong case. Arguably a stronger one given historical precedent.
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Based on a blend of Evolving Hockey's and MoneyPuck's models, Wolf ranks seventh among starting goalies in GSAx. The only other times a rookie goalie has been a top 10 starter are Carey Price in 2008 (eighth), Tuukka Rask in 2010 (seventh) and Matt Murray in 2017 (sixth). Wolf has arguably had a stronger rookie season than all of them and has been an immediate star saving 15 goals above expected. Goalies don't usually get a lot of love for the Calder — all three of those aforementioned goalies finished fourth — and that needs to change for Wolf. He's been amazing and is the only reason the Flames are somehow in the thick of the playoff race. If there's an exception to the rule, he's it.
So too, though, is Hutson whose offensive output as a defender puts him in rarified air. For the season, Hutson is on pace for an Offensive Rating of plus-11.6, a mark that's only been bested by one other rookie defenseman in the analytics era: Cale Makar at plus-13.4. Hutson is scoring at a 62-point pace this season and has completely unlocked Montreal's offensive potential. The Canadiens perform a lot better offensively at five-on-five with Hutson on the ice, and his tape speaks to that.
The caveat with Hutson is that he gives back a lot defensively (unlike Makar) and that's plain to see with a minus-2.0 Defensive Rating this season. Hutson more than makes up for it with his offensive ability, but it is something to consider. It's also not unlike Hughes' rookie season when he had his own issues defensively (that he's cleaned up since). A positive sign for Hutson: Hughes' Defensive Rating in his rookie year was even lower at minus-4.1 per 82 games (made up for by a plus-10.9 Offensive Rating).
If Hutson's best comp is Hughes and the only rookie defenseman who has shined more offensively is Makar … that's hard to vote against.
It's a tough call because Wolf has been more valuable and shines brighter relative to his position, but what Hutson has done feels more rare as a rookie.
Both have separated themselves a bit from Celebrini and Michkov. That's not to say that those two haven't also been excellent. Celebrini is scoring at a scintillating 74-point pace while Michkov has scored at a 57-point pace. Both have shown a knack for driving offense at five-on-five too, though Michkov has the edge there which is why his Offensive Rating is a little higher. That Celebrini has performed so well despite a desolate roster around him is also commendable. It's just that what Wolf and Hutson are doing feels more significant.
Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position.
Criteria: Goaltenders who have played half of their team's games or more, ranked by goals saved above expected courtesy of Evolving Hockey and MoneyPuck.
The Vezina has been Connor Hellebuyck's all season and that remains unchanged going into the final month of the season. He's the only goalie in the league who has played over 15 games and has a save percentage over .920. That the games played threshold for that is so low speaks to how special Hellebuyck's season has been given his game-to-game consistency. To play at this level over such a high volume of games is seriously impressive and is why he's not just the current Vezina leader, but also in the thick of the Hart race.
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Hellebuyck's 34.2 goals saved above expected laps the field with Logan Thompson at 28 and Igor Shesterkin at 20.5 being the only others above 20. As impressive as Thompson has been on a per-game basis (0.7 GSAX per game to Hellebuyck's 0.63), the lack of start volume does matter. Being a workhorse goalie is a difficult job where it's harder to maintain such a high level of play over such a high number of games. The extra rest that Charlie Lindgren affords Thompson is a luxury that Hellebuyck doesn't have. As for Shesterkin — the Rangers' defense has seriously let him down this season. He's still been excellent.
Down the ballot: Lukas Dostal and Sam Montembeault have been strong despite playing behind porous defensive teams. Darcy Kuemper has been quietly excellent, Dustin Wolf has made a name for himself and Andrei Vasilevskiy deserves some consideration too with a resurgent season.
Given to the player who leads the National Hockey League in scoring points at the end of the regular season.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season point total.
This one would've been a tight race to the finish if not for a late injury to Draisaitl that could have him sidelined for enough games to be unable to catch MacKinnon. The Colorado superstar has a four-point lead with 11 games to go and projects to finish with 121 points, a mark that looks unlikely to be surpassed. Kucherov had a chance at one point but has slowed down of late. Missing four games also hurts his chances.
Also noteworthy: the NHL had nine 100-point scorers last year, 11 in 2022-23 and eight in 2021-22. This year there may only be four or five, though Kyle Connor, Mitch Marner and David Pastrnak all have a shot.
Given to the NHL's top goal scorer.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season goal total.
With an 11-goal lead and 11-to-12 games to go for his biggest challengers, it's safe to say that Leon Draisaitl has already won the Rocket Richard. Even if he misses the remainder of the season (which seems unlikely), it doesn't appear likely that either William Nylander or Kyle Connor can catch him. Both players are projected to finish just shy of 45 goals; Draisaitl already has 49.
Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and Corey Sznajder's All Three Zones project
(Top photo of Leon Draisaitl and Nathan MacKinnon: Justin Tafoya / Getty Images)