Anthony Albanese has rare opportunity to make reforms after Coalition split

Australia Broadcast Center

21-05-2025

The best description of this week's Coalition split came from Treasurer Jim Chalmers in the hours after the bombshell break-up.
It was, Chalmers said, a "seismic event" in Australian politics. And here's the thing about seismic events: they are typically felt far beyond the earthquake epicentre, with rolling aftershocks that can be unpredictable.
Ground zero for this seismic event was the National Party. Most of its MPs chose to split from the Liberals. They will now wear the most immediate damage.
The move was driven by fear amongst these Nationals that the Liberals might just re-position to the political centre after their election wipe-out in metropolitan Australia.
As Nationals leader David Littleproud put it to the ABC: "We can't get caught up in the rediscovery of the Liberal Party." It's a fundamental rejection of new Liberal leader Sussan Ley's pledge to "modernise" the party.
Not all Nationals agreed it was a smart move to walk away from the only thing that gives them a shot at being in government. The party is divided on this. Some fear they'll end up shouting at clouds about all the things they'd like to do, without any power to do them.
As the reality of the party's diminished status in parliament and the broader political conversation sinks in, tensions are only likely to build.
Meanwhile, what sort of "modern" Liberal Party emerges from this break-up is also unclear. Will it be a more moderate party? Or will conservatives prevent Ley from re-positioning too far? Is further splintering possible?
Most Liberals want to reconcile quickly with the Nationals. Some are considering other options, including potential "rainbow coalitions" with independents.
The dust is far from settled on this seismic event, which has ramifications for Labor too.
Three weeks ago, Labor was simply hoping to win a majority. Now, Anthony Albanese holds a commanding position, surveying the wreckage on the other side.
Historians can argue the toss, but it's difficult to recall a government being in such a position of strength. A huge majority in the House, multiple pathways now in the Senate to pass legislation, and a literally divided and demoralised opposition.
Labor now has options when it comes to implanting its agenda. It can work with either the Greens or the "modernised" Liberals to pass environment laws or a new 2035 emissions target, without worrying about the Nationals.
This position of political security also raises the prospect of going further and taking on difficult reforms necessary to fix the budget deficit and boost productivity. The sort of reforms voters are saying they're up for.
A post-election survey conducted by JWS Research shows a strong majority of voters, across different age and income groups, want the government to seize the moment after its landslide win and do something big.
The research shows 81 per cent of voters agree the government should tackle more difficult and complex reforms in this parliamentary term to grow the economy and balance the budget. Sixty-one per cent also agree the government should put a higher focus on boosting productivity in its second term, as Chalmers indicated he would when he appeared on Insiders the morning after the election.
Clearly, these strong levels of support for undefined "reform" may fall once specific ideas are laid out, particularly if they involve some level of personal financial pain. But these are still strong grounds upon which to build a reform agenda.
Labor, of course, argues it already has plenty of reform to get on with, from rebuilding Medicare to the renewable energy transition. And the man who helped deliver Labor this stunning victory, ALP Secretary Paul Erickson warns against any post-election over-reach. "The best approach is for Labor to stay focused on the agenda that we campaigned on and sought a mandate for," he told the National Press Club yesterday.
But if Labor doesn't do anything beyond what it took to the election, historians may look back on this moment of extraordinary political strength for the government as a wasted opportunity.
Erickson isn't closed to the idea of pursuing further reform but cites the political mantra of "taking the people with you". That means spending time making the argument about what needs fixing and how a proposed solution will deliver benefits.
After arriving back from Rome early yesterday, the prime minister is taking a couple of well-deserved days off. After that, he'll need to assess how the seismic events of this week are re-shaping the political landscape and the opportunities this has opened up.
David Speers is national political lead and host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.