‘Prisoners to El Saldavor' just shows Farage will say anything
As a young Right-winger on the make in the foothills of his career, it is a question that vexes me on a daily basis. On paper, very: they now have a healthy opinion poll lead, won a storming victory at May's locals, and are on track for a majority at the next general election.
My opinion of Sir Jake Berry is low. But is it jealousy? He saw which way the wind is blowing and fled to the sanctuary of Castle Reform before the defection drawbridge is drawn up. In branding Nigel Farage yesterday's man, in refusing to drink the Reform Kool Aid, have I hobbled my career? Yesterday's boy – c'est moi.
And yet. Then I see an announcement like this morning's on crime, and I pause. Undoubtedly, Farage said all the right things.
A pledge that a future Reform government will halve crime. A new prison building programme delivering 30,000 places. The deportation of foreign offenders, with the assistance of his new best friend Edi Rama, Albania's Prime Minister. An end to 'two-tier justice' and the early release of violent criminals and sex offenders. A 'three strikes' system for serious offenders. More police officers. Safer streets. Motherhood, apple pie, a BMW and bigger breasts for your wife.
Ah. Wait. Sorry. Those last two weren't Farage today, but Boris Johnson, making the case for voting Conservative all the way back in 2005. I was put in mind of Johnson by Farage's announcement, if only because I can seem to remember hearing very similar pledges an election or two back.
Yes, the prospect of sending the worst offenders to Nayib Bukele's El Salvador is an exciting addition to the roster. But we have heard so much of this before – the hollow promises of failed governments. Reform looks less like a radical departure from the old politics, but a miserable continuation of it.
Successive ministers have presided over our worsening crime crisis, over the periodic emptying of our over-filled prisons, over a legal system that treats stupid tweets more harshly than sex crimes, over the tacit legalisation of shoplifting and burglary.
Why would Home Secretary Darren Grimes, Justice Secretary David Bull, and the rest of Reform's gaggle of groupies, Z-list celebs, and Tory cast-offs succeed where their predecessors have not? Why should we think Farage – a metals trader turned TV host who has never held ministerial office or run a large organisation – has the answer?
If both the Conservatives and Labour have been unable to control and overhaul Whitehall, how will Reform – especially when they will be facing concerted opposition from every aspect of the so-called establishment? Farage says he will bring in expertise from outside of politics.
But, again, every incoming government pledges to do this. The number of ex-private sector ministers who have quit in disgust at their inability to circumvent Sir Humphrey are legion. Whitehall's anti-bodies – its resistance of misfits, weirdos, and talent – are very powerful. How will Farage surmount them?
If Farage intends to spend the next four years genuinely planning his British Meiji Restoration – recruiting talent, plotting out policy and legislation, and wargaming the constant attempts to frustrate a Reform government – one could start to believe that he will succeed where the old parties have failed.
I hold out hope. Britain needs radical change, and he is the man best-placed to deliver it. But how can I have faith that he will adopt this historical role when he goes on television to announce he would nationalise half the water industry with no clarity on the cost? I'll hold fire on my defection for the time being.
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