NASCAR Cup Series at Talladega odds, predictions: Team Penske favored but long shots shine at superspeedway

New York Times

26-04-2025

After the Easter break, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to party city Talladega this weekend for the Jack Link's 500. Drivers will be looking for a dose of good luck at the superspeedway in their attempts to avoid the 'Big One' and clinch a win. With an unbroken stretch of races from now until November, the unpredictability of Talladega could be exactly what a long-shot driver needs.
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As always, we're previewing the race and getting predictions from our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi. They're answering our questions about the Cup Series' upcoming schedule, All-Star race controversies, Rodney Childers' future and who might cross the finish line first this weekend.
Take it away, guys!
We're about to embark on the longest-ever stretch of consecutive race weekends to end the season in NASCAR's recorded history, with 28 straight weekends of racing until the championship on Nov. 2. Are any drivers/crews especially suited to shine in a grind like this? Any drivers/crews this might disadvantage more than others?
Jeff: My take on this would be if you're running well, you're positioned for success. If you're off to a bad start and it looks like your team doesn't have the necessary speed to compete this year, it could be a long, long season. With no more breaks in this relentless schedule, there's really no time to reset and regroup. My guess is the familiar names we've seen at the front of the field should mostly stay there, while it will be a continued challenge for drivers 30th or worse in points (Erik Jones, Brad Keselowski and Noah Gragson among them) to find their footing. Of course, we know all it takes is a single victory to turn a season around — and a superspeedway like Talladega is the perfect place to do that.
Jordan: The grinding schedule inevitably favors bigger organizations like Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske, which have more personnel and therefore deeper rosters to lean on, so they rotate crew members to give them a weekend off. It is also much easier to navigate if you're running well as opposed to the other end of the spectrum, where each race weekend can feel like a never-ending slog. It will be interesting later in the year to see how teams feel about this stretch and whether they would've managed things differently.
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I should also ask: How are our two intrepid NASCAR reporters feeling about zero summer breaks? I hope you both went to the Bahamas last week, but judging from the stories you churned out, you kept on working!
Jeff: You're going to get two very different answers to this one. I not only went on a family vacation to a Mexican beach, but also took all social media off my phone for eight days. I didn't see a single post of any kind. It was glorious and a much-needed chance to disconnect before the upcoming grind. Jordan, of course, did not.
Jordan: What's a vacation? Because from this viewpoint, the news doesn't stop. Taking time off can happen during the 'offseason.'
In All-Star race drama, there's a lot of *ahem* 'dialogue' online about the 'promoter's caution.' Can you shed some light on the decision-making process and what impact that has? Also, NASCAR reportedly offered a 'run what you brung' model for the All-Star race, and teams declined. Do you know why they declined?
Jeff: NASCAR told me it's racetrack magnate Marcus Smith and Speedway Motorsports who will make the decision on whether to call the caution, which could come anytime between Lap 100 and Lap 220 (or not at all). I assume Smith will be in the actual scoring tower along with NASCAR officials and give them the signal (or maybe he'll actually hit the caution button himself). It's a weird gimmick, and I don't know if NASCAR miscalculated what the reaction would be or what, but it's also not the end of the world. This is an exhibition race, after all, and it's similar to a competition caution used in other races (except for the unknown of when it will happen). That said, the 'run what you brung' All-Star Race would have been far more compelling and actually gotten fans excited, but NASCAR apparently couldn't get the teams on board with it. I assume there was a cost factor involved, and teams didn't want to spend extra money on one of the lowest-paying races for everyone except the race winner (who gets $1 million) that also comes with no points.
Jordan: The 'promoter's caution' is what it is and perfectly fine for a non-points event solely designed to offer something different than what they'd normally see during the season. It's a bummer that the 'run what you brung' concept didn't take hold because that would've been absolutely fascinating to see what wild ideas teams would've employed. And it definitely would've added a very intriguing element to a race that has long lacked juice. Hopefully, this idea can be revisited next year.
You reported that Rodney Childers and Spire have parted ways, and Childers is taking some time off. Will there be a mad rush to get him? Who is his most likely next team? That could really shift some futures odds.
Jeff: Childers is going to take his time and see what's out there for a bit. I've spoken to both Childers and Spire co-owner Jeff Dickerson this week, and the best way to describe the breakup is that it just wasn't working. It wasn't a good fit for either one of them based on what each expected going into the relationship. It happens, and Spire made the decision to move on quickly rather than drag it out and hope for a change. Childers has won 40 Cup Series races (second on the active crew chiefs list) and a championship, so he'll certainly be sought-after and his phone will be ringing, but it obviously depends on the right situation. As we saw with Spire, not every scenario that looks good on paper ends up working out, so it will be interesting to see if someone makes a crew chief move just to make room for Childers.
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Jordan: After talking to multiple people familiar with the situation, the best way to describe the Childers-Spire relationship was trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. Sometimes a pairing that looks great on paper doesn't work as intended. This is an all-too-familiar tale in NASCAR with countless examples to point to. As for what Childers does next, we'll see. He should have options, but whether an opportunity materializes with a deep-pocketed organization is the unknown.
OK, now to Talladega! Do you predict an exciting race this year? What are drivers looking to avoid, and what are fans hoping for? Who is best at avoiding the Big One?
Jeff: By now, we know exactly what to expect at NASCAR superspeedway races with the Next Gen car — almost a full day of three- and four-wide pack racing where it looks good on TV, but in reality, the drivers are all just going half-throttle and saving fuel. Conserving gas is now the name of the game at superspeedways because crew chiefs want the drivers to take as little fuel as possible on the final pit stop of the race in order to get track position; it's otherwise hard to pass in the Next Gen car at these tracks. So we'll probably see a giant pack, followed by the usual Big One that takes out half of the field toward the end of the race. And it will probably end in overtime. This is a race where luck is a major factor, since avoiding crashes (or not) isn't really a skill.
Jordan: Jeff nailed it with what we will likely see on Sunday. That's the nature of racing on a drafting track in the Next Gen era. That said, there is a group of drivers who routinely put themselves in a position to win better than others. For example, Penske's trio of Ryan Blaney, Austin Cindric and Joey Logano routinely position themselves at the front of the field where they tend to lead a bulk of the laps. Of course, the issue with Penske's drivers has been converting all these laps led into strong finishes, as getting to the finish with their cars in one piece has been a challenge.
Who do you pick for a win this weekend?
Jeff: This is one of the times when you should avoid the favorites and sprinkle some money on some long shots who could win. Sure, it could be one of the great superspeedway racers like Ryan Blaney or Brad Keselowski. It could also just as easily be one of the guys who tend to pop up and win these things every now and then, like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. or Michael McDowell. And then it could be a longshot like Justin Haley or AJ Allmendinger (both +6000). I'd say not to go any lower than that, but remember what happened last summer at Daytona? Harrison Burton won his first career race, and his odds were +8000 at the time. Crazy things can happen, and anyone who tells you they confidently know who will win is just BS'ing.
Jordan: Blaney's track record on drafting tracks is hard to ignore. And the same can be said for Cindric, who led the most laps in the Daytona 500 and the third-most laps at Atlanta, the only two drafting-track races we've had this year. Also, Logano, who probably had the fastest car at Daytona and led the most laps at Atlanta. Basically, this is a long-winded way of saying Team Penske is the favorite this weekend.
Who is a long shot you like?
Jeff: I'm going to throw out a wild one for you: Riley Herbst (+6000). It's easy to forget now, but Herbst was in contention to win the 2023 fall Talladega race and got wrecked from fourth place right before the finish line after pushing eventual winner Blaney to the lead (Herbst finished ninth instead). Herbst then was in fifth place on the last lap of February's Daytona 500 when he got spun into the grass. The Cup Series rookie seems to have a nose for staying in the mix of these races late, and it's not out of the question that he could pull a shocking upset and win his way into the playoffs.
Jordan: Stenhouse at +3000 is good value for a driver who excels on drafting tracks and owns a single win on such tracks in each of the past two seasons. Looking behind that, Austin Dillon, a two-time winner at Daytona, is listed at an intriguing +5000, while the perpetually overlooked Allmendinger is at +6000.
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(Photo by Sean Gardner / Getty Images)