Why everybody refuses to believe crime is falling, even though it is
Yet a feeling persists that the Golden State has been tarnished by a wave of unchecked crime. Conservative media fanned that notion in June, when unruly and sometimes violent crowds took over streets in a few L.A. neighborhoods.
Statistics and analysis from the Public Policy Institute of California suggest that though most types of crime numbers in the state are headed in the right direction — downward — perception does not always meet reality.
The average citizen now has a front-row seat to more robbery, battery and noxious behavior than ever. That's because mobile phones and social media give all of us a front-row seat to the most antisocial miscreant behavior in our midst.
Nothing enrages a tax-paying, law-abiding citizen like the sight of some knucklehead(s) busting into stores, ransacking shelves or covering buildings with graffiti. It happened at an Auto Zone store in South L.A. in June. And at another Auto Zone again this week. It's not just that the do-badders are breaking the law; it's that they seem to be relishing doing wrong. And they seem to have no concern about consequences.
In the June incident, many of the thieves can be seen videoing their handiwork. One young woman holds a pink balloon. Like it's a party. Ah, the impunity.
Those images do more to instill and inflate Californians' sense of lawlessness than perhaps any other factor. A boatload of statistics showing that many crimes have decreased can't pack the emotional wallop of watching a crime spree unfold before your eyes.
And yet. Two explosive videos do not a trend make. Researcher Magnus Lofstrom at the Public Policy Institute of California reported this week that crime totals for 2024 'provide mostly good news for Californians,' adding: 'Most of the crimes that saw notable increases during and after the pandemic fell in 2024.'
Violent crime decreased statewide by 9.6% from 2023 to 2024, the stats showed. That included a 13.7% dip in the homicide rate, reflecting what LAPD figures show for the state's largest city. Property crimes declined 10% from 2023 to 2024 and by the same amount over the last five years. Burglaries have dropped nearly 20% over those five years, and larceny declined more than 14%.
To be sure, there is some bad news hidden in those trends. Even as violent crime have fallen, aggravated assaults have gone up nearly 22% over five years.
Lofstrom told me no one can quite explain the increase. There is a theory that the increasing ranks of homeless people could contribute to the increase, as those living without shelter present as easier perpetrators, and victims, of violence.
A couple of other problem spots: Auto theft rose markedly, by 19% since 2019. Shoplifting also continued a rise that became pronounced at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Those numbers, and video of outrageous smash-and-grab and takeover robberies, might explain why California voters last year approved Proposition 36. The measure toughens penalties for many crimes by reclassifying some misdemeanors as felonies, including when the items stolen are worth $950 or less.
We'll see next year whether the new penalties, put in place in 2025, have an impact on crime. But even then, let's not forget: Viral videos represent a narrow slice of our world, not all of reality. No matter how the ugly images make you feel, crime is generally on the downswing. And that's a good thing.
Robert says, 'My wife, Shuang, cooks fresh salmon mixed with rice for our elderly Chihuahua, Puddin.'
Email us at essentialcalifornia@latimes.com, and your response might appear in the newsletter this week.
Today's great photo is from Times photographer Robert Gauthier, who captured a food delivery robot as it crossed the street. The startup behind these bots is planning to expand aggressively across the country in the coming year — but the residents of Silver Lake have given them mixed reviews thus far.
Jim Rainey, staff writerDiamy Wang, homepage internIzzy Nunes, audience internKevinisha Walker, multiplatform editorAndrew Campa, Sunday writerKarim Doumar, head of newsletters
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Miami Herald
36 minutes ago
- Miami Herald
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