Middle East worries, portfolio inflow hopes feed rupee bears and bulls alike
MUMBAI: Lingering concerns over a potential escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, coupled with expectations of portfolio inflows, are fuelling mixed views on the rupee's trajectory for the coming week, traders said.
A spike in oil prices from a potential escalation in the conflict could weigh on the rupee, but an upcoming large IPO expected to draw foreign inflows may help recoup recent losses, they added.
The rupee has declined a little over one per cent so far this month, with a large portion of its drop occurring after Israel attacked targets in Iran last Friday.
The attacks also raised concerns about disruption of global oil supplies, sending Brent crude oil futures to a five-month peak of US$79 per barrel, hit on Thursday.
The currency hit a three-month low on Thursday but eased 0.10 per cent to 86.63 as of 11:05am on Friday, supported by a dip in oil prices after the White House said President Donald Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the US will become involved in the Israel-Iran air war.
Meanwhile, expectations that Indian lender HDB Financial's US$1.5 billion IPO is likely to draw sizeable inflows are seen as a positive for the rupee, a trader at a private bank said.
The trader pointed out that he would prefer to keep tight stop-losses on speculative positions since the risk of two-way moves next week could be elevated.
On the technical front, the dollar-rupee pair is "nearing overbought territory, with a possible dip toward 86.35–85.95 before resuming an uptrend toward 87.80–88.00," FX advisory firm Mecklai Financial said in a Friday note.
On the day, most Asian currencies ticked up as well, with the Korean won leading gains. The dollar index eased below the 99 handle, while India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, rose about 0.90 per cent each.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Star
18 minutes ago
- The Star
Thailand's economy teeters as political turmoil threatens recovery efforts
BANGKOK: Thailand's economy is already on the ropes. Consumption has remained tepid despite a government stimulus programme, few of its economic engines are firing, and uncertainty wrought by US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs means that the Thai economy could grow just over 1% this year. Now, South-East Asia's second-largest economy faces a fresh challenge: a new round of political chaos that can bring down Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra or her ruling Pheu Thai party. "We are currently in a period of economic downturn, with many issues affecting us," Visit Limlurcha, vice chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, told Reuters. "This could make things even more complicated." The most significant short-term concern is the passage of a 3.78 trillion baht (US$115 billion) budget for the 2026 fiscal year, which starts on Oct 1, that must pass through parliament over the next few months. That process could get stalled if Paetongtarn, who is under siege for her handling of a festering border row with neighbouring Cambodia, dissolves parliament and triggers fresh elections. "If parliament is dissolved before the budget is passed, the process will be delayed significantly," said Prakit Siriwattanaket, managing director of Merchant Partners Asset Management. Thailand's economy has lagged regional peers as it struggles under high household debt and borrowing costs, and sluggish demand from China, which is also a key tourism market. It expanded 2.5% last year, and growth could be further halved this year due to US tariffs, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said last month. Thailand's stock market has been the worst performing bourse in Asia so far this year, down 23.4%. Industrial sentiment also hit its lowest in eight months in May, even as consumer confidence dropped to a 27-month low. There is a clear need to press ahead with government spending, which has dropped by over 38% annually during April-May 2025, OCBC economists Lavanya Venkateswaran and Jonathan Ng said in a report on Thursday, warning of a "double whammy" for the economy if both government expenditure and exports weaken. Amid the ongoing tumult, Paetongtarn may be able to hang on to her premiership and a coalition led by her Pheu Thai party could retain its majority, albeit in a weaker position compared to its previous grip on the parliament. Such an arrangement will prolong political instability and raise the spectre of street protests, which have been part of previous crises and could hit one of Thailand's key remaining economic engines: tourism. "I'm worried. I don't want the situation to cause people to take to the streets," Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, President of Thai Hotels Association, which represents around 1,000 hospitality establishments, told Reuters. "If they take to the streets, it will hit tourism." Activists - including those who have in the past agitated against Paetongtarn's father, the divisive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra - met on Friday (June 20) to plan a major protest next week, and demanded the prime minister's resignation. A government lacking full authority may also struggle in ongoing trade negotiations with the United States, which has threatened to impose a 36% tariff rate on imports from Thailand, said Natapon Khamthakrue, an analyst at Yuanta Securities. "The United States certainly would not want to talk to a government without full power or with few votes," he said. Some business chambers and analysts are, nonetheless, holding out hope that a political resolution can be found quickly, minimising damage to the Thai economy, which has been rattled by multiple coups in the last eight decades, including two against governments led by the Shinawatra family. "Although the economy is no stranger to political uncertainty," OCBC's economists said, "the timing could not be more inconvenient considering external headwinds." - Reuters
The Star
18 minutes ago
- The Star
Rice prices double in Japan as inflation accelerates
A customer purchases a bag of government stockpiled rice on sale in a section of convenience store chain Seven-Eleven Japan in Tokyo on June 17, 2025. The price of rice went up 101 per cent on-year in May. - AFP TOKYO: Rice prices doubled last month in Japan as core inflation accelerated, official data showed Friday (June 20), posing a threat to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ahead of July elections. The vote for parliament's upper house, due next month, is crucial for Ishiba after public support for his government tumbled to its lowest level since he took office in October, partly due to frustration over the cost of living. In May, Japan's core inflation rate, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, hit 3.7 per cent - its highest level since January 2023 - interior ministry data showed. The figure narrowly beat market expectations and was up from a 3.5 per cent year-on-year rise logged in April. Rice was more than twice as expensive as a year previously - despite the government releasing its emergency stockpile of the staple grain to try to bring its price down. A supply chain snarl-up has caused a shortage of rice in shops, with the grain's price up 101 per cent on-year in May, compared to the eye-watering 98 per cent rise in April. The government began releasing stockpiles in February in an attempt to drive down prices, something it has only previously done during disasters. Electricity bills were 11.3 per cent higher in May, and gas fees rose 5.4 per cent, according to Friday's data. Excluding energy and fresh food, Japan's consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.3 per cent, compared to April's 3.0 per cent. To help households combat inflation, Ishiba has pledged cash handouts of 20,000 yen (US$139) for every citizen, and twice as much for children, ahead of the election. The 68-year-old leader's coalition was deprived of a majority in the powerful lower house in October as voters vented their anger at rising prices and political scandals. It was the worst election result in 15 years for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955. Earlier this week the Bank of Japan kept its interest rates unchanged and said it would taper its purchase of government bonds at a slower pace, as trade uncertainty threatens to weigh on the world's number four economy. "Policy flip-flops and delayed pass-through from producers to consumers mean inflation will slow only gradually in the coming months," said Stefan Angrick of Moody's Analytics. "This will keep a sustained pickup in real wages out of reach, and with it a meaningful uptick in consumption." Factors behind the rice shortages include an intensely hot and dry summer two years ago that damaged harvests nationwide. Since then some traders have been hoarding rice in a bid to boost their profits down the line, experts say. The issue was made worse by panic-buying last year prompted by a government warning about a potential "megaquake" that did not strike. Going forward, US tariffs are expected to weigh on Japan's growth, with economists predicting a slowdown ahead. Intensifying fighting between Iran and Israel was also adding pressure for energy prices to head north, posing a further risk to the Japanese economy. - AFP
Malay Mail
21 minutes ago
- Malay Mail
China's rare-earth magnet exports plunge 70pc in May amid trade tensions, lowest level since 2015
BEIJING, June 20 — Chinese exports of rare-earth magnets continued their downward slide in May, official data showed on Friday, reflecting restrictions imposed by Beijing during its trade war with the United States. China is the world's leading producer of rare earths, used to make magnets essential to the automotive, electronics and defence industries. Since April, Beijing has required traders to obtain licences before they export the strategic materials, a move seen as retaliation for US curbs on the import of Chinese goods. Many manufacturers, particularly in the automotive sector, have bewailed what they view as sporadic licence issuances. And Chinese customs data revealed Friday that the country's rare-earth magnet exports plummeted by 70 per cent year-on-year in May, following an initial slowdown observed in April. Exports fell below the US$60 million mark, hitting their lowest level since 2015 excluding the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Bloomberg News. After talks between China and the US in London this month, Beijing said it had issued a 'certain number' of export licences for rare earths. US President Donald Trump said last week on his Truth Social platform that 'any necessary rare earths... will be supplied, up front, by China'. Beijing also said it would launch a 'green channel' to facilitate rare earth exports to the European Union. But its exports of rare-earth magnets to the EU in May plunged by 81 per cent year-on-year, according to the customs figures. And exports of small parcels to the US dropped by half compared to the previous month. Last month, Washington ended a tariff exemption previously enjoyed by low-value parcels shipped from China and Hong Kong. The measure dealt a severe blow to platforms shipping low-cost items from China, such as Shein and Temu. The decline was offset by a rise in China's total small parcel exports to the rest of the world, which were up 40 per cent year-on-year, with particularly notable increases to Singapore, Russia, Europe and Australia. Besides the US, several countries have been trying to limit the rise of platforms sending cheap products made in China. This month, France adopted a bill that aims to curb fast fashion by banning advertising and imposing an additional tax on small parcels. — AFP
