3 reasons UCF football fans should be optimistic in 2025, and 3 reasons they shouldn't

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6 days ago

ORLANDO — It's not quite the full-scale rebuild he undertook the first time he arrived at UCF, but Scott Frost knows he has his work cut out to get the Knights into position to contend in the Big 12.
In his view, the cupboard is not bare of talent despite significant losses to graduation and the transfer portal in the wake of Gus Malzahn's resignation. And he believes in the athletes signed in the winter and spring windows to fill those vacancies.
"We're not starting at zero here," Frost said. "We're starting with a team that won four last year and probably — not probably, watching tape, definitely — should have won more than that.
"But it's also tougher to close that gap against teams like we're playing in the Big 12."
The Power Four transition has been bumpier than expected. Since joining the Big 12 two years ago, UCF has won just five of its 18 conference football games.
By comparison, during its decade-long membership within the American Athletic Conference, UCF sported a 57-23 league record (.713 winning percentage) — running the table unbeaten three times.
Can the Knights begin their ascension toward the top of the conference, or will 2025 be another struggle just to achieve bowl eligibility? Here are three reasons to feel optimistic about UCF, and three to feel pessimistic about its chances.
UCF football's 3 reasons for optimism in 2025
1. The feel-good factor around Scott Frost's return
UCF fans and ex-players made their support of Frost well known upon Gus Malzahn's decision to step down and take over as Florida State's offensive coordinator. Likewise, Frost has reiterated his love for the university and Orlando since taking the job Dec. 7.
"I don't think I would have just come back to any place," Frost said at his introductory press conference. "This place gave me a start, and I kind of gave it a start in some way, or at least I had a hand in that.
"My wife and I have three kids, and bringing them to a place like this to see Daddy coach … is what we wanted to do."
Returning players have spoken — in front of the camera, and away from it — about the change in vibes surrounding the program. And it speaks volumes that Frost was able to retain the majority of the Knights' coveted young standouts through two transfer portal windows.
Frost has something to prove; so does defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, first-time assistant coach McKenzie Milton and the rest of the staff, plus a roster largely overlooked on a leaguewide and national scale. This group will be motivated to exceed expectations and silence the external skepticism.
2. Talented, experienced and deep defensive line
Scrolling through the projected depth chart, UCF's defensive line stands out as a major potential strength.
Returning defensive ends Nyjalik Kelly and Malachi Lawrence combined for 10½ sacks and 51 quarterback pressures in 2024. Sincere Edwards had three sacks, all against Power Four opposition, as a freshman at Pittsburgh, and Isaiah Nixon chipped in five solo tackles and a sack across 195 snaps in his redshirt freshman season for the Knights.
John Walker (knee) and Horace Lockett (hand) missed all of last year due to injury, but they and RJ Jackson will be counted upon to emerge as impact starters along the defensive interior. Derrick Leblanc, Andrew Rumph and Tyreek'e Robinson will look to break into the rotation, as will spring additions Jeffson Lafontant and Rodney Lora.
"You hear a lot of, 'last year, last year, last year.' You've got to look at it as this roster isn't last year," defensive tackles coach Kenny Martin said. "We closed the book and turned the chapter from last year. We're focused on right now. All those guys in the room, they have that chip on their shoulders and they're ready to roll. They want something to prove. I want something to prove, that I am a developer. I can't wait to show the world and the conference what my group has to offer."
3. Myles Montgomery, Jaden Nixon sharing RB workload
Replacing RJ Harvey is a near-impossible task. The Orlando native broke the program's all-time career touchdown record and accounted for 34.6% of the Knights' scrimmage yards in 2024.
Opportunity knocks, though, for a pair of Big 12 veterans who shared the spotlight at their previous schools — Myles Montgomery and Jaden Nixon.
"What I am excited for is, Myles Montgomery in particular, has been in the shadow for quite a while, and he's a really good player," Frost said. "It's exciting to see guys like that get their chance. I remember being at Oregon, and LaMichael James being (third) in the Heisman. We had a couple guys like Kenjon Barner behind him, and the next year, you were able to see what Kenjon Barner could do. I'm hoping that same thing happens for Myles."
Montgomery played 10 games despite a lingering knee injury, but carried the ball just 51 times for 293 yards and three touchdowns. Nixon thrived after transferring from Oklahoma State to Western Michigan, earning All-MAC first-team honors with 921 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.
Stacy Gage and Taevion Swint are promising prospects for the future, but Montgomery and Nixon should carry the bulk of the backfield workload so long as they stay healthy.
UCF football's 3 reasons for pessimism in 2025
1. Lots of unknowns in the passing game
UCF's quarterback competition is underway, with incumbent redshirt junior Jacurri Brown, Indiana transfer Tayven Jackson and Florida Atlantic transfer Cam Fancher vying for the No. 1 spot ahead of the Aug. 28 home opener versus Jacksonville State.
Brown, who made two starts, completed just 52.2% of his throws with one touchdown compared to four interceptions. He did, however, contribute 401 yards and four TDs on the ground.
Jackson made six starts across two years with the Hoosiers, steering them to a win over Washington last October en route to the College Football Playoff. Fancher has an 13-13 record across parts of three seasons as a starter with Marshall and Florida Atlantic.
But there are major questions with the supporting cast as well.
None of UCF's current wide receivers caught a pass for the team in 2024, and Paul Rubelt is the lone returning starter along the offensive line. Rubelt is expected to flip over to left tackle, and while Carter Miller seems a lock to start at center, both guard spots and the right tackle position are up for grabs.
2. UCF has difficult Big 12 road schedule
It's not just about the distance UCF will accrue in the air, though the figure works out to roughly 7,200 miles. But the Knights face a handful of the league's upper-echelon teams away from home.
They will start, for the second time in three years, with a tone-setting Sept. 27 trip to Kansas State. ESPN and CBS Sports project the Wildcats, anchored by junior quarterback Avery Johnson, as a top-two team in the Big 12.
Longtime rival Cincinnati welcomes the Knights back to Nippert Stadium in mid-October, where the Bearcats hold a 3-2 all-time edge.
November presents three tough trips, beginning with Big 12 dark horse Baylor, which won its final six games of 2024. Texas Tech spent a fortune in the transfer portal to fortify its roster and make a push for an elusive first conference championship. BYU's quarterback situation is in flux following Jake Retzlaff's departure, but the Cougars have a .693 all-time winning percentage at home.
Not to mention, UCF's trip to Provo, Utah — located 4,553 feet above sea level — is scheduled for Thanksgiving weekend. The Cougars hosted Houston at the same time a year ago, with a frigid kickoff temperature of 29 degrees.
3. Scott Frost's track record in one-score, Power 4 games
The Big 12, arguably, has the most parity week-over-week of any conference in the Football Bowl Subdivision. Just think back to last year's infamous preseason poll, in which eventual champion Arizona State was picked to finish last and projected favorites Utah and Oklahoma State failed to achieve bowl eligibility.
Margins will be extremely slim every Saturday, and UCF often found ways to lose winnable games under Gus Malzahn. After watching film, Frost admitted July 27 that the Knights should have won more than four times in 2024.
Frost's track record in close Power Four games, though, does not inspire a great deal of confidence. In his five-year run at Nebraska, the Cornhuskers went 5-22 in one-possession games.
Each of Frost's final 13 defeats in charge were by single-score deficits.
"The thing that was a little puzzling was that if you looked at the score at the end of three quarters, Scott would have had a really good record," former Nebraska coach and athletic director Tom Osborne said in August 2023. "For whatever reason, they couldn't hang in the fourth quarter and lost a lot of games. As you know, this is a business of what have you done for me lately."
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Why UCF Knights football should, shouldn't be optimistic in 2025