On defense, Canada is turning away from the US and toward Europe

The Hill

6 hours ago

BANFF, ALBERTA — Americans continue to flock here and to nearby Lake Louise. Canadians continue to welcome them warmly.
There is no sign of the tense relationship that continues to prevail between Ottawa and Washington. But Canada is pursuing a new international path that may mark a tectonic shift in its long-standing relationship with the U.S.
Although he has become more muted about annexing Canada to the U.S., President Trump has not entirely dropped the idea. And Canada's response has been to move increasingly closer to Europe in general, and to the European Union in particular.
In March, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a review of Canada's purchase of F-35 fighters. Ottawa was originally going to buy 88 aircraft, but with costs having grown by about 50 percent, Carney decided not to commit to more than the 16 planes that Canada had already funded. The review is slated to be completed later this summer; it will consider less costly alternatives to the F-35, most notably Sweden's Gripen.
This week, Canada took another step closer to Europe. On the day before the NATO Summit at The Hague, Carney signed an agreement with the EU that will enable Canada to participate in its expanded multi-billion euro ReArm Europe defense spending program. Specifically, Brussels and Ottawa will work to conclude a bilateral agreement to let Canada participate in the new €150 billion facility that will allow Ottawa to take part in joint procurement, and possibly to be eligible for loans to support defense purchase. The two sides will also work to establish an 'administrative arrangement between Canada and the European Defense Agency.'
The agreement also expands upon previous arrangements between Canada and the EU, including Canada's 2005 Framework Participation Agreement with the EU, the 2018 Security of Information Agreement, its participation in the EU Common Security and Defense Policy, as well as the EU's Permanent Structured Cooperation Projects on Military Mobility, which enables Canadian forces to move across the territory of EU member states.
Finally, the latest agreement also addresses issues that the Trump administration treats as lower priority, if it considers them at all. These include long-term support for Ukraine, 'protection of vulnerable populations and the provision of humanitarian assistance in conflict situations,' 'close collaboration to ensure gender equality [as a] political and security priority' and 'addressing the security implications of climate-related impact on infrastructure, equipment, training and readiness, operations, policy, and planning.'
Canada still has some ways to go before its defense commitments can be taken seriously. Like its NATO partners, Canada signed onto the NATO Summit's Communique and pledged to spend 3.5 percent of its gross domestic product on defense, with an additional 1.5 percent on activities that could be considered defense-related. These include undertakings to protect 'critical infrastructure, defend … networks, ensure … civilian preparedness and resilience, unleash innovation, and strengthen [the] defense industrial base' — and to do all of the foregoing by 2035.
However, that will be an exceedingly steep climb. Canada is one of NATO's laggards with respect to defense spending; Ottawa commits only 1.37 percent of its GDP to defense. The Carney government did announce that Canada would reach NATO's previous target of 2 percent of GDP this year, five years ahead of its previous schedule. Yet budget constraints could delay achieving that goal by as much as three years and those constraints will further complicate Canada's chances of achieving the 5 percent target seven years later.
In any event, it is becoming increasingly likely that much of Ottawa's additional defense spending, at whatever percentage of GDP, may well be directed away from the U.S. Canada appears to have reached a turning point in its defense relationship with Washington. Its turn to Europe may well prove to be permanent, even if Trump were to drop all thought of absorbing Canada into the U.S.
Nevertheless, Canada and the U.S. have a fully integrated defense industrial base for both shared procurement and research and development that dates back to the 1956 defense production sharing agreement, the 1963 defense development sharing agreement and several subsequent arrangements. Losing that common base would be a disaster for manufacturers in both countries.
It is therefore critical that, whatever the political winds blowing out of Washington and Ottawa, the two countries preserve the long-standing industrial relationship that has served them both so well for more than a half-century.
Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.