Analysts reboot Olive Garden parent's stock price targets as earnings loom
One night in December 1982, a tradition was born.
The very first Olive Garden restaurant opened its doors on International Drive in Orlando, Fla., and the crowds just kept on coming.
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In a bid to manage the throngs of customers, the restaurant offered free bread and salad, leading to the popularization of Olive Garden's unlimited breadsticks and salad.
Today more than 900 Olive Garden restaurants operate in the U.S. The company is owned by Darden Restaurants (DRI) , which also owns several popular full-service restaurant chains, including, LongHorn Steakhouse and The Capital Grille.
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"Our ability to deliver profitable sales growth in this challenging environment is a testament to the strength of our business model," Chief Executive Rick Cardenas told analysts during the company's earnings call in March.
The Olive Garden team, he said, "continues to use news to appeal to core guests as well as value seekers in this environment."
"For the first time since before Covid, they are bringing back their signature buy-one-take-one limited-time offer," Cardenas said "With a price starting at $14.99, guests choose from seven entrees for their dining experience and then take a second entree home. This has historically been a high-traffic-driving promotion for Olive Garden."
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Total sales increased 6.2% to $3.2 billion in the quarter, driven by a blend of same-restaurant sales increase of 0.7% and sales from the acquisition of 103 Chuy's restaurants and 40 net new restaurants.
The restaurant industry lately has been facing several challenges. A number of restaurants are closing as the sector contends with high costs, economic uncertainty and falling customer traffic.
Consumers expect to spend 7% less each month on restaurants this summer than they did a year earlier, according to KPMG's Consumer Pulse Summer 2025 report.
"Consumers aren't just belt-tightening - they're rethinking value altogether," Duleep Rodrigo, KPMG's consumer and retail sector leader, said in a statement.
"It's not only about cutting back; it's about being intentional with every dollar spent," Rodrigo added. "In this environment trust, transparency and tangible impact matter more than ever. To win today's consumer, brands need empathy, innovation and a clear reason to matter."
Related: Major restaurant chain quietly closes several locations
Fast-food visits are up 26%, the firm said, while casual dining is down 38% - driven largely by cost-conscious households.
Darden recently announced plans to close 15, or more than a third, of its Bahama Breeze restaurants and shutter two of its Seasons 52 casual restaurants.
In addition, many people are eating at home, something Campbell's (CPB) CEO Mick Beekhuizen noted during the company's earnings call.
"Consumers continue to cook at home and focus their spending on products that help them stretch their food budgets, and they're increasingly intentional about their discretionary snack purchases," Beekhuizen said.
Another factor: Ozempic and similar GLP-1 drugs might be prompting restaurant customers to eat less, order less frequently and looking for healthier options.
Shares of Darden Restaurants, which hit all-time high on June 16, have surged almost 20% this year and nearly 50% from a year ago.
The company is scheduled to post fourth-quarter earnings on June 20 and investment houses have been issuing research reports.
Jefferies analyst Andy Barish upgraded Darden to hold from underperform with a price target of $210, up from $165, according to The Fly.
The firm has become "increasingly positive" on Darden's ability to return its core Olive Garden brand to "Every Day Affordable Price" leadership in casual dining and compete more effectively for traffic going forward..
Although Darden's valuation is "still rich," the improvements at Olive Garden merit an upgrade to hold, the analyst said. Yahoo Finance pegs the company's price-to-earnings multiples at 24.5 for the trailing 12 months and 20.3 for the forward 12 months.
Stephens analyst Jim Salera raised the firm's price target on Darden to $200 from $178 and affirmed an equal-weight rating on the shares.
The analyst said in a Q4 earnings preview that he continues to model fiscal 2025 same-store sales modestly below the company's guidance.
But Salera said the impact of Darden's sales initiatives, including new menu items and increased marketing support, were apparent in the traffic data as Olive Garden and LongHorn both showed sequential improvement each month during the quarter.
On June 16 UBS analyst Dennis Geiger raised the investment firm's price target on Darden to $245 from $225 and maintained a buy rating on the shares.
Related: Fund-management veteran skips emotion in investment strategy
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