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The Advertiser
28 minutes ago
- Business
- The Advertiser
'Baby bounce-back': Newcastle/Hunter leading the country in having babies
The birth rate in Newcastle and the Hunter Valley rose by 4.6 per cent in a year in a "baby bounce-back" attributed to people moving from cities to escape COVID lockdowns. The region recorded 8130 births in 2024, up from 7770 the previous year, a KPMG report said. Released on Thursday, the report said births have "bounced back a bit" from last year's "baby recession". Among the areas that KPMG listed, Geelong (7.6 per cent) and Newcastle/Hunter Valley (4.6 per cent) had the highest birth-rate rises. Rises in metropolitan areas included: Greater Sydney (1.1 per cent), Greater Brisbane (1.8 per cent), Greater Melbourne (1.5 per cent) and Greater Adelaide (2 per cent). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said "the baby bounce-back was largely felt outside the nation's capital cities". "Regional Australia reached 94,900 births in the last year, a 3.9 per cent increase from 2023," Mr Rawnsley said. The report said the fertility rate in Australia was 1.5 babies per woman. A rate of 2.1 children is needed to ensure a stable population. The Newcastle Herald reported in May that the fertility rate in Hunter New England averaged 1.9 babies per woman over a decade. University of Newcastle Distinguished Emeritus Professor John Aitken said then that "more women are going into the paid workforce and pushing the boundaries of their own fertility". "Many want to have children but can't because they've left it too late," said Professor Aitken, author of The Infertility Trap. "Increasingly, there is a lot of voluntary childlessness, where women are making a conscious choice not to have children." The KPMG analysis attributes Australia's declining birth rates mainly to economic pressures. It said changes in disposable income had "a significant impact on the country's birth rate". Mr Rawnsley said rising rents, mortgage payments, and childcare costs in metro areas were "putting a handbrake" on people's plans to have children. He said strong birth rates outside the cities were partly "a consequence of the great migration we saw during the pandemic". COVID led many people "to leave city lockdowns for a better lifestyle in the regions". "These regions are now feeling the long-term benefits of that migration," he said. "Their relative affordability has allowed them to retain those people who have put down roots and are starting families." He said the cost of living remained a key issue for many people. After the COVID lockdowns, birth rates temporarily spiked "due to low unemployment and substantial government stimulus". But rising costs in 2022 and 2023 triggered "a significant baby recession, with births dropping by 5.1 per cent during that time". The KPMG report said disposable household income had fallen by almost 8 per cent since 2022. This year it had risen by less than 1 per cent. "The growth in disposable household income per capita in 2024 suggests there's cause for optimism that birth rates will recover further," he said. He said the birth rate could reach 300,000 this year, but this was below "the magic 350,000 figure needed to sustain our way of life well into the 21st century". The birth rate in Newcastle and the Hunter Valley rose by 4.6 per cent in a year in a "baby bounce-back" attributed to people moving from cities to escape COVID lockdowns. The region recorded 8130 births in 2024, up from 7770 the previous year, a KPMG report said. Released on Thursday, the report said births have "bounced back a bit" from last year's "baby recession". Among the areas that KPMG listed, Geelong (7.6 per cent) and Newcastle/Hunter Valley (4.6 per cent) had the highest birth-rate rises. Rises in metropolitan areas included: Greater Sydney (1.1 per cent), Greater Brisbane (1.8 per cent), Greater Melbourne (1.5 per cent) and Greater Adelaide (2 per cent). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said "the baby bounce-back was largely felt outside the nation's capital cities". "Regional Australia reached 94,900 births in the last year, a 3.9 per cent increase from 2023," Mr Rawnsley said. The report said the fertility rate in Australia was 1.5 babies per woman. A rate of 2.1 children is needed to ensure a stable population. The Newcastle Herald reported in May that the fertility rate in Hunter New England averaged 1.9 babies per woman over a decade. University of Newcastle Distinguished Emeritus Professor John Aitken said then that "more women are going into the paid workforce and pushing the boundaries of their own fertility". "Many want to have children but can't because they've left it too late," said Professor Aitken, author of The Infertility Trap. "Increasingly, there is a lot of voluntary childlessness, where women are making a conscious choice not to have children." The KPMG analysis attributes Australia's declining birth rates mainly to economic pressures. It said changes in disposable income had "a significant impact on the country's birth rate". Mr Rawnsley said rising rents, mortgage payments, and childcare costs in metro areas were "putting a handbrake" on people's plans to have children. He said strong birth rates outside the cities were partly "a consequence of the great migration we saw during the pandemic". COVID led many people "to leave city lockdowns for a better lifestyle in the regions". "These regions are now feeling the long-term benefits of that migration," he said. "Their relative affordability has allowed them to retain those people who have put down roots and are starting families." He said the cost of living remained a key issue for many people. After the COVID lockdowns, birth rates temporarily spiked "due to low unemployment and substantial government stimulus". But rising costs in 2022 and 2023 triggered "a significant baby recession, with births dropping by 5.1 per cent during that time". The KPMG report said disposable household income had fallen by almost 8 per cent since 2022. This year it had risen by less than 1 per cent. "The growth in disposable household income per capita in 2024 suggests there's cause for optimism that birth rates will recover further," he said. He said the birth rate could reach 300,000 this year, but this was below "the magic 350,000 figure needed to sustain our way of life well into the 21st century". The birth rate in Newcastle and the Hunter Valley rose by 4.6 per cent in a year in a "baby bounce-back" attributed to people moving from cities to escape COVID lockdowns. The region recorded 8130 births in 2024, up from 7770 the previous year, a KPMG report said. Released on Thursday, the report said births have "bounced back a bit" from last year's "baby recession". Among the areas that KPMG listed, Geelong (7.6 per cent) and Newcastle/Hunter Valley (4.6 per cent) had the highest birth-rate rises. Rises in metropolitan areas included: Greater Sydney (1.1 per cent), Greater Brisbane (1.8 per cent), Greater Melbourne (1.5 per cent) and Greater Adelaide (2 per cent). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said "the baby bounce-back was largely felt outside the nation's capital cities". "Regional Australia reached 94,900 births in the last year, a 3.9 per cent increase from 2023," Mr Rawnsley said. The report said the fertility rate in Australia was 1.5 babies per woman. A rate of 2.1 children is needed to ensure a stable population. The Newcastle Herald reported in May that the fertility rate in Hunter New England averaged 1.9 babies per woman over a decade. University of Newcastle Distinguished Emeritus Professor John Aitken said then that "more women are going into the paid workforce and pushing the boundaries of their own fertility". "Many want to have children but can't because they've left it too late," said Professor Aitken, author of The Infertility Trap. "Increasingly, there is a lot of voluntary childlessness, where women are making a conscious choice not to have children." The KPMG analysis attributes Australia's declining birth rates mainly to economic pressures. It said changes in disposable income had "a significant impact on the country's birth rate". Mr Rawnsley said rising rents, mortgage payments, and childcare costs in metro areas were "putting a handbrake" on people's plans to have children. He said strong birth rates outside the cities were partly "a consequence of the great migration we saw during the pandemic". COVID led many people "to leave city lockdowns for a better lifestyle in the regions". "These regions are now feeling the long-term benefits of that migration," he said. "Their relative affordability has allowed them to retain those people who have put down roots and are starting families." He said the cost of living remained a key issue for many people. After the COVID lockdowns, birth rates temporarily spiked "due to low unemployment and substantial government stimulus". But rising costs in 2022 and 2023 triggered "a significant baby recession, with births dropping by 5.1 per cent during that time". The KPMG report said disposable household income had fallen by almost 8 per cent since 2022. This year it had risen by less than 1 per cent. "The growth in disposable household income per capita in 2024 suggests there's cause for optimism that birth rates will recover further," he said. He said the birth rate could reach 300,000 this year, but this was below "the magic 350,000 figure needed to sustain our way of life well into the 21st century". The birth rate in Newcastle and the Hunter Valley rose by 4.6 per cent in a year in a "baby bounce-back" attributed to people moving from cities to escape COVID lockdowns. The region recorded 8130 births in 2024, up from 7770 the previous year, a KPMG report said. Released on Thursday, the report said births have "bounced back a bit" from last year's "baby recession". Among the areas that KPMG listed, Geelong (7.6 per cent) and Newcastle/Hunter Valley (4.6 per cent) had the highest birth-rate rises. Rises in metropolitan areas included: Greater Sydney (1.1 per cent), Greater Brisbane (1.8 per cent), Greater Melbourne (1.5 per cent) and Greater Adelaide (2 per cent). KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said "the baby bounce-back was largely felt outside the nation's capital cities". "Regional Australia reached 94,900 births in the last year, a 3.9 per cent increase from 2023," Mr Rawnsley said. The report said the fertility rate in Australia was 1.5 babies per woman. A rate of 2.1 children is needed to ensure a stable population. The Newcastle Herald reported in May that the fertility rate in Hunter New England averaged 1.9 babies per woman over a decade. University of Newcastle Distinguished Emeritus Professor John Aitken said then that "more women are going into the paid workforce and pushing the boundaries of their own fertility". "Many want to have children but can't because they've left it too late," said Professor Aitken, author of The Infertility Trap. "Increasingly, there is a lot of voluntary childlessness, where women are making a conscious choice not to have children." The KPMG analysis attributes Australia's declining birth rates mainly to economic pressures. It said changes in disposable income had "a significant impact on the country's birth rate". Mr Rawnsley said rising rents, mortgage payments, and childcare costs in metro areas were "putting a handbrake" on people's plans to have children. He said strong birth rates outside the cities were partly "a consequence of the great migration we saw during the pandemic". COVID led many people "to leave city lockdowns for a better lifestyle in the regions". "These regions are now feeling the long-term benefits of that migration," he said. "Their relative affordability has allowed them to retain those people who have put down roots and are starting families." He said the cost of living remained a key issue for many people. After the COVID lockdowns, birth rates temporarily spiked "due to low unemployment and substantial government stimulus". But rising costs in 2022 and 2023 triggered "a significant baby recession, with births dropping by 5.1 per cent during that time". The KPMG report said disposable household income had fallen by almost 8 per cent since 2022. This year it had risen by less than 1 per cent. "The growth in disposable household income per capita in 2024 suggests there's cause for optimism that birth rates will recover further," he said. He said the birth rate could reach 300,000 this year, but this was below "the magic 350,000 figure needed to sustain our way of life well into the 21st century".
ABC News
2 hours ago
- Business
- ABC News
Australia's fertility rate picks up slightly
Australia has had a small bounce-back in its fertility rate, according to data analysis by KPMG.
CTV News
8 hours ago
- Business
- CTV News
Canadian businesses should shift practices amid Trump tariffs: accountant
As Canadian businesses brace to face tariffs on exported goods to the United States, an accountant suggests owners shift their practices as a tariff free deal seems unlikely. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney signalled most countries will likely have to accept a baseline tariff rate on their goods by the U.S. 'I think your observation that Prime Minister Carney is warming the public up to the idea to expect tariffs is absolutely right,' Lachlan Wolfers, global head of indirect taxes at KPMG International, told in a Wednesday interview. 'It could also signal that a deal is relatively imminent as well.' U.S. President Donald Trump recently sent letters to a handful of countries outlining higher tariffs they'll face if they don't make trade deals by Aug. 1. Indonesia, which faced a tariff rate of 32 per cent conceded to a 19 per cent tariff rate of their own. Canada faces a 35 per cent tariff, up from 25 per cent initially imposed in March. Some of Canada's top exports to the U.S. are subject to different industry-specific tariffs but key exports include oil and petroleum products, cars and trucks. The United States said it has taken in about US$100 billion so far and could collect $300 billion by the end of the year. The U.S. and United Kingdom previously agreed to 10 per cent tariff rate and Vietnam agreed to a lower-than-promised 20 per cent tariff on many Vietnamese goods. Wolfers suggests a 10 per cent baseline tariff might be the best-case scenario for Canada. 'The U.K. deal is instructive,' said Wolfers. 'What it says is 10 per cent is a baseline, which I think is probably a best case scenario for Canada.' He advised businesses to shift from a defensive to an offensive strategy, focusing on mitigating tariff costs, long-term planning and trading around uncertainties effectively. 'I think the message from a Canadian perspective needs to be, how do we turn from defence into offence? Offence is not necessarily retaliatory tariffs,' said Wolfers. 'Offence is around how businesses can take active steps to mitigate their own tariff costs and to trade around this as effectively as possible. What I've seen is the uncertainty in markets has created an environment where people haven't been able to engage in that medium to long term planning. My advice is they now need to do.' Wolfers noted these are not comprehensive trade agreements, but rather narrow deals designed more for headline impact than substantial trade resolution. The actual rate will depend on ongoing negotiations between Canada and the US.
The Guardian
9 hours ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Baby recession deepens in Australia's biggest cities amid cost-of-living crisis, preliminary data shows
Baby recessions in Australia's biggest cities deepened in 2024 amid sustained cost-of-living pressures, dragging the nation's birthrate to a near-record low in 2024. Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane each saw further declines in the number of children born per woman from 2023 to 2024, according to KPMG's preliminary analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics population data, barely offset by increases in Perth and in regional Australia. The analysis also found outer-suburban and regional Australians grew increasingly likely to have higher numbers of children per person than their inner-city neighbours. Overall the country's fertility rate, or children born per woman, was 1.51 in 2024, statistically similar to the 1.5 observed in 2023 and well below the rate of 1.8 observed a decade beforehand. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email Young families continued to delay or give up on having children in the face of elevated living costs over the year, according to Amanda Davies, professor of demography at the University of Western Australia. 'Not much has changed for people who are looking at having a family or thinking about extending their family; they are really struggling,' Davies said. 'There's a feeling they need to have secure housing before starting a family, and that extreme housing crisis that's being faced in all parts of Australia is [related] to that declining fertility rate.' The gap between suburbs is expected to sustain as soaring costs for multi-bedroom homes continued to push families out of the inner city, according to economist Ashton De Silva. 'Children are becoming more and more expensive,' said de Silva, a professor at RMIT University. 'Unless something drastic changes, I would probably continue to expect to see that families are going to be located on the urban fringes.' Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane each saw fertility rates fall further in 2024, with the Victorian capital the lowest at 1.4, compared to 1.71 in 2014. Sign up to Breaking News Australia Get the most important news as it breaks after newsletter promotion The decline was in part offset by increased childbirths in regional centres as young parents pursued jobs and affordable housing, according to Terry Rawnsley, urban economist at KPMG. 'People have shifted out of Sydney and Melbourne – sparked by Covid, followed up by ability to work remotely, and then housing [cost] refugees – [to] places like Newcastle and Geelong,' he said. Further decline in birthrates below the replacement rate of 2.1 children born per woman would see locally born populations shrink and increase the capitals' reliance on interstate and international migration to fill local job shortages, Rawnsley said. In regional Australia, though, the total numbers of children born each year has risen over the last decade in absolute terms, despite falling in the capitals. Perth was an exception among the capital cities in 2024, seeing its birth numbers stabilise and its fertility rate rebound to its highest point since 2021, helped by a stronger jobs market and relatively better affordability than the eastern capitals, Rawnsley said. 'If people are confident about the economy and cost-of-living is taking a back seat, they're going to get out there and add to the family,' he said. However, temporary economic upswings are not expected to offset the long-term fall in Australia's fertility rates, which are likely to decline further over the next decade as living costs remain elevated, according to UWA's Davies. 'We're still expecting to see, over the next decade, population fertility decline, until we start to arrest the factors that are driving that in terms of cost of living,' Davies said.
Gulf Insider
13 hours ago
- Business
- Gulf Insider
Global Oil Consumption Reaches All-Time High
Global oil consumption reached an all-time high in 2024, driven primarily by non-OECD countries, with the U.S. remaining the largest consumer. The U.S. continues to lead the world in total oil production, contributing to a record global output despite a slowdown in its growth rate. The 2025 Statistical Review reveals key shifts including declining production in Russia and Saudi Arabia, surging demand in India, and the significant rise of Guyana as an oil producer. Each year, the Statistical Review of World Energy offers important insights into global energy trends. Now published by the Energy Institute in collaboration with KPMG and Kearney, the 2025 edition—reflecting full-year 2024 data—reveals that global oil production and consumption remained relatively steady, but there are meaningful shifts underway. These shifts reflect not only changing geopolitics and economic recovery patterns but also longer-term questions around energy security, investment priorities, and the uneven global evolution toward decarbonization. In 2024, global oil consumption–which excludes biofuels but includes coal and natural gas derivatives–reached 101.8 million barrels per day (bpd). The represents an all-time high that slightly surpassed the 2023 level by 0.7%. On average, oil demand has increased by 1% per year over the past decade, driven almost entirely by non-OECD countries. The U.S. remains the world's largest oil consumer, accounting for 18.7% of global demand. Daily consumption in the U.S. fell slightly from 2023, but over the past decade it increased by 0.5% per year on average. China was the world's second-largest oil consumer, accounting for 16.1% of global demand. Its daily consumption fell 1.2% to 16.4 million bpd in 2024. This decline is a marked departure from the average 4% gain per year over the past decade, which means China's oil demand may be showing signs of plateauing. With economic growth slowing and a push toward electrification of transportation underway, some analysts speculate China may be approaching its long-term oil demand peak. Meanwhile, India's oil consumption continues to surge, jumping 3.1% year-over-year to 5.6 million bpd. The nation's economic expansion and rising middle class continue to drive growth, putting India on track to become the third-largest oil consumer globally within a few years. OECD nations saw modest changes in oil demand (+0.1%) while non-OECD nations saw demand jump by 1.2%. On the production side, global oil output (including natural gas liquids and other liquids) hit a record 96.9 million barrels per day. That's 1.8 million barrels more than the pre-pandemic peak, and about 9% higher than the lows seen during the COVID-19 downturn. On the surface, it's a story of resilience and recovery. But dig a little deeper, and the numbers reveal a more complicated picture. The United States continues to lead the world in total oil production, clocking in at 20.1 million barrels per day. But that headline figure includes a sizable share of natural gas liquids—byproducts like ethane and propane that aren't typically directly used as transportation fuels but may function as refinery feedstock. Strip those out, and U.S. production of crude oil and condensate—the type of output most analysts consider 'true oil'—comes in at 13.2 million barrels per day. Although this was yet another production record, the 2% increase from 2023 was less than half the 4.2% average annual gain over the previous decade, which could be an indication that U.S. production is close to a plateau. Russia follows in second place at 10.2 million barrels per day of crude plus condensate. That was down 3.1% from 2023, largely due to the impact of Western sanctions and logistical constraints. However, Russian exports to China and India remained robust, helping the country maintain relevance in global energy markets despite diplomatic isolation. Saudi Arabia also saw production fall by 4.2%. Saudi was in third place in 2024 with 9.2 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2011. The drop reflects both voluntary production cuts to support prices and long-term questions about the Kingdom's spare capacity amid heavy domestic investments in refining and petrochemicals. The Statistical Review also sheds light on global oil reserves, although those are only available for the end of 2020. At that time, the world's proven oil reserves stood at 1.7 trillion barrels—enough to sustain current production levels for roughly 53.5 years. However, the distribution of those reserves remains highly uneven. Venezuela still holds the largest proved reserves, at 304 billion barrels, but much of that oil is heavy and difficult to extract. Saudi Arabia is second with 298 billion barrels, followed by Iran at 158 billion. The U.S., by contrast, holds 69 billion barrels—reflecting both a mature production base and a reserve classification system that tends to be more conservative. A few notable trends emerged from this year's data: Saudi Arabia's Output Decline : The drop in Saudi production is significant not only because it's the lowest in more than a decade, but also because it signals a shift in how the Kingdom may balance price stability with market share. : The drop in Saudi production is significant not only because it's the lowest in more than a decade, but also because it signals a shift in how the Kingdom may balance price stability with market share. U.S. Efficiency and NGLs : While the U.S. continues to be the top oil producer, a growing share of that output is in the form of natural gas liquids, which are not suitable for all applications and require different refining infrastructure. This evolution has implications for and refining strategies. : While the U.S. continues to be the top oil producer, a growing share of that output is in the form of natural gas liquids, which are not suitable for all applications and require different refining infrastructure. This evolution has implications for and refining strategies. Flat Growth in Global Reserves : The relative lack of reserve growth despite strong consumption reflects an investment hesitancy across much of the industry. This could pose long-term supply challenges if demand doesn't moderate. : The relative lack of reserve growth despite strong consumption reflects an investment hesitancy across much of the industry. This could pose long-term supply challenges if demand doesn't moderate. India's Ascent : India's rise as a major demand center—with relatively little domestic production—makes it one of the most strategically important countries in the oil market. Its policy choices on storage, refining, and renewables will shape future demand dynamics. : India's rise as a major demand center—with relatively little domestic production—makes it one of the most strategically important countries in the oil market. Its policy choices on storage, refining, and renewables will shape future demand dynamics. Guyana's Rise: Guyana's meteoric rise from zero to over 600,000 barrels daily in just five years is one of the fastest production ramps in oil industry history. With reserves now estimated at 11 billion barrels, Guyana is projected to reach 1 million barrels daily soon, potentially becoming a top-five global producer within the decade. Oil markets in 2024 were defined by an uneasy equilibrium. On the one hand, production and consumption were closely matched, and price volatility was relatively contained. On the other, the factors holding that balance together—OPEC+ coordination, U.S. shale resilience, and subdued global demand growth—are all subject to disruption. Looking ahead, several questions loom: Will China's oil demand begin to decline in absolute terms? Can U.S. shale sustain output without massive reinvestment? Will geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Russia, or elsewhere upset the delicate supply-demand balance? These aren't just market questions—they are strategic ones that affect global inflation, trade, and energy security. The 2025 Statistical Review confirms that oil is still very much at the center of the global economy. Demand is growing in the developing world, production remains concentrated among a handful of players, and supply vulnerabilities persist. In the coming weeks, I'll continue to unpack key findings from the Statistical Review, including natural gas, coal, renewables, and nuclear power trends. But one thing is clear from the oil data: in a world increasingly focused on energy transition, the importance of oil—economically and geopolitically—hasn't gone anywhere. Also read: OPEC Says Global Oil Consumption Will Hit 123 Million BPD By 2050
