What's driving Japan's population fall, with record decline of 900,000 people in 2024

Indian Express

4 days ago

The year 2024 saw Japan's total population decline by more than 908,000 people to around 120.65 million (or 12 crore), according to recent official data. A DW report stated that while this was the largest population drop since 1968, it was also the 16th straight year in which the Japanese population shrank.
One important trend in this context is the falling birth rate in Japan, or the number of births per 1,000 people in the population over a given period. 'Some 686,061 newborns were recorded in 2024, the lowest number since records began in 1899,' DW reported. As a result, the total population has contracted in recent years.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba termed the figures a 'quiet emergency', but the country is not alone in witnessing declining birth rates and populations, especially not in its neighbourhood. China has also seen shrinking populations every year since 2022, and announced a subsidy to improve fertility rates. South Korea also has among the lowest birth rates globally, even as the figures have declined in other countries, from India to France. What explains these trends? Can they be reversed, and what is the situation in East Asia?
First, is Japan an outlier?
Not exactly, in the sense that a majority of countries are also witnessing declining birth rates and total fertility rate or TFR (the number of children a woman will likely bear in her lifetime).
One popular explanation is the demographic transition theory, which says that as countries move from agrarian societies (that require a high number of workers) to industrialised economies, birth rates fall. Medical, educational and technological advancements improve the chances of survival of infants, and women's decision-making powers about the number of children they plan to have.
Australian demographer Peter McDonald has further argued that two social and political shifts in the last few decades have also lowered the importance of having children for a good life. First was social liberalism, in which individuals in modern societies re-examined social norms and increasingly focused on individual aspirations.
Second was the withdrawal of the welfare state in major Western economies in the 1980s and 1990s, which led to 'loss of trust in others… decline of community…and fear of failure or of being left behind', he wrote.
However, this shift is being seen not just in the West or industrialised societies. At different levels, it's in countries with relatively supportive child care policies for parents, like France and Scandinavian nations, and those like Japan, where living costs and work pressure are high.
Social scientists are still trying to understand the near-universal decline, with many stating that it is irreversible beyond a point. The usefulness of monetary incentives is found to be limited, and there is no silver bullet, so far.
So, what is the situation in Japan?
Japan often makes headlines in this area because of its particularly low TFRs and birth rates. For example, India's TFR is 1.98, South Africa's is 2.22, Brazil and the United States are both at 1.62, and France is at 1.66 (World Bank data as of 2023). Japan's TFR is at 1.2, South Korea's at 0.72, China's at 1 and Singapore's at 0.97.
The world average was 2.2, just above 2.1 — the TFR needed to maintain the population levels. There are clear benefits to lower TFR, like women living healthier lives, gaining more education and financial freedom, and exercising autonomy about their bodies, as well as parents potentially providing a higher quality of life for each child.
However, a high proportion of the elderly population in a society risks a greater burden on the people in the 15-59 age group, which is considered the working population. Not only would the elderly require caregivers, but funding their healthcare and other needs would lead to increased taxes on the working population.
Demographers have noted some common patterns in many East Asian nations. Urbanisation and modernisation have meant high living costs, making it expensive to raise kids. Rigid traditional gender roles still prevail in these matters.
University of Pennsylvania researchers noted that 'Women who do decide to marry often find themselves carrying a 'double burden' of working and managing the majority of household tasks (or 'unpaid work'), making the prospects of a large family both stressful and unmanageable…' ('Education Fever and the East Asian Fertility Puzzle: A case study of low fertility in South Korea')
They acknowledged that this is not unique to the region, and argued that the high social pressure felt by parents to invest large amounts of time and money in their children's education also plays a role. 'Korean parents often find it difficult and discouraging to have more than one or two children, despite the fact that desired family size for young adults has hovered around two for the last three decades', they wrote.
Peter McDonald noted that the economic slowdown in Japan, by the 1990s, with rising aspirations among the youth, impacted marriage and childbearing prospects. Both concepts are generally interlinked in these countries, unlike the West. He wrote that governments have not been able to 'attempt to modify the worsening employment conditions of young workers.' This, even as men and women spend long hours working because of high professional pressure.
McDonald argued for making child-rearing a social project, so to speak, with governments and other institutions changing how they view the subject and becoming more accommodating. 'While young people are aware that almost inevitably they will reduce their material outcomes if they have children, most are willing to accept the loss so long as it is not overly destructive of their aspirations. In particular, they would like to have confidence that they will have adequate financial resources during the period when children are very young…' he added. ('Explanations of low fertility in East Asia: a comparative perspective')
Japan has also historically been hesitant to allow immigration, based on ideas of preserving cultural homogeneity. This has changed to an extent in recent years, with immigration allowed for some professionals. However, the rise of a new political party that is critical of immigration indicates there is at least some pushback against the idea.
Rishika Singh is a Senior sub-editor at the Explained Desk of The Indian Express. She enjoys writing on issues related to international relations, and in particular, likes to follow analyses of news from China. Additionally, she writes on developments related to politics and culture in India.
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