Scottish independence support surges over fears Nigel Farage could be next Prime Minister
The Reform UK leader is expected to campaign in Scotland for the first time since 2019 ahead of this week's Hamilton by-election.
Support for Scottish independence is surging over fears that Nigel Farage could become the next prime minister.
Voters north of the Border have become increasingly disillusioned with Labour's first year back in power at Westminster but many also view the rise of Reform UK with concern, new polling has found.
A survey by Norstat put support for ending the Union on 54 per cent, a joint record high for a poll carried out by the firm.
Asked how they would vote in an independence referendum if Farage was already in Downing Street, 58 per cent of Scots said they would vote Yes.
Support for Scotland leaving the UK has remained high over the last two years despite a steep drop in the popularity of the SNP.
While John Swinney remains on course to emerge as the leader of the biggest party after the next Holyrood elections, support for the SNP in the constituency vote is at 33 per cent - a drop of two points in the last two months, and a decline of over 10 points from 2021.
But the Norstat poll is a blow to Anas Sarwar, with fewer than one in five Scots saying they plan to vote Labour next May.
The results were published ahead of the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election on Thursday, which is viewed as three-way race between the SNP, Labour and Reform.
Farage is expected to visit the constituency this week - the first time he has campaigned in Scotland since 2019.
If the survey was replicated on polling day, Labour would have 20 seats while Reform would make a breakthrough by winning 18.
The Conservatives would be left on 17, the Lib Dems 11 and the Greens nine.
Such as a result would mean the SNP would be two MSPs short of a pro-independence majority if they formed a pact with the Greens.
It could make any demands for an IndyRef2 difficult to achieve if a majority of MSPs rejected calls from the SNP on the issue.
Mark Diffley, a pollster from Diffley Partnership, said: "The SNP and wider nationalist movement will be encouraged by the poll's findings of 54 per cent support for independence.
"But what will concern the pro-Union parties the most is the finding that the prospect of Nigel Farage as PM would push support for independence close to the symbolically important 60 per cent.
"The rise of Reform is not only hitting Labour and the Tories at the ballot box but represents an increasing threat to the Union."
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