Latest news with #IndyRef2
Daily Record
01-06-2025
- Politics
- Daily Record
Scottish independence support surges over fears Nigel Farage could be next Prime Minister
The Reform UK leader is expected to campaign in Scotland for the first time since 2019 ahead of this week's Hamilton by-election. Support for Scottish independence is surging over fears that Nigel Farage could become the next prime minister. Voters north of the Border have become increasingly disillusioned with Labour's first year back in power at Westminster but many also view the rise of Reform UK with concern, new polling has found. A survey by Norstat put support for ending the Union on 54 per cent, a joint record high for a poll carried out by the firm. Asked how they would vote in an independence referendum if Farage was already in Downing Street, 58 per cent of Scots said they would vote Yes. Support for Scotland leaving the UK has remained high over the last two years despite a steep drop in the popularity of the SNP. While John Swinney remains on course to emerge as the leader of the biggest party after the next Holyrood elections, support for the SNP in the constituency vote is at 33 per cent - a drop of two points in the last two months, and a decline of over 10 points from 2021. But the Norstat poll is a blow to Anas Sarwar, with fewer than one in five Scots saying they plan to vote Labour next May. The results were published ahead of the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election on Thursday, which is viewed as three-way race between the SNP, Labour and Reform. Farage is expected to visit the constituency this week - the first time he has campaigned in Scotland since 2019. If the survey was replicated on polling day, Labour would have 20 seats while Reform would make a breakthrough by winning 18. The Conservatives would be left on 17, the Lib Dems 11 and the Greens nine. Such as a result would mean the SNP would be two MSPs short of a pro-independence majority if they formed a pact with the Greens. It could make any demands for an IndyRef2 difficult to achieve if a majority of MSPs rejected calls from the SNP on the issue. Mark Diffley, a pollster from Diffley Partnership, said: "The SNP and wider nationalist movement will be encouraged by the poll's findings of 54 per cent support for independence. "But what will concern the pro-Union parties the most is the finding that the prospect of Nigel Farage as PM would push support for independence close to the symbolically important 60 per cent. "The rise of Reform is not only hitting Labour and the Tories at the ballot box but represents an increasing threat to the Union."
Daily Record
08-05-2025
- Politics
- Daily Record
Scottish independence rears its head again as John Swinney talks up IndyRef2 prospects
John Swinney is hoping the rise of Reform will push more Scots towards supporting the end of the Union. John Swinney isn't always keen to speak about Scottish independence. Back in January and February this year, the First Minister made a series of set-piece speeches on Government policy in which the indy word wasn't mentioned once. It led to accusations from Alba that he had "no plan, no action and no intention" when it came to advancing the cause of Scotland breaking away from the UK. Swinney's caution was perhaps understandable given how badly the General Election went for the SNP last year. It's easy to forget now, but that poll was supposed to deliver a message to the UK Government that Scots wanted a second referendum on independence. Instead, the Nationalists were left with nine MPs and Labour, briefly, looked in the ascendency north of the Border. The ground has since shifted. Polls consistently show the SNP is on course to remain the largest party at Holyrood at next year's election meaning Swinney will almost certainly stay on as First Minister as a result. While the Nationalists probably won't achieve a majority on their own, they could rely on the Scottish Greens to push them over the magic number of 65 MSPs when it comes to any Holyrood votes on independence. Clearly sensing an opportunity, Swinney was keen to talk up such a scenario yesterday. He insisted only a referendum, like the one in 2014, could finally settle the issue. But he also claimed a 'democratic majority' for independence - that means the SNP and Greens - in the Scottish Parliament should lead to an IndyRef2 being staged. Remember, only the UK Government has the power to call a referendum on the constitution. That was the definitive ruling of the Supreme Court in 2022 when Nicola Sturgeon forced the issue. Speaking to a group of journalists yesterday, Swinney was also asked if he would ramp up his messaging on independence. He said: 'I recognise I had to earn the right to be heard by the public in Scotland. I think we had lost the right to be heard by the people of Scotland and I had to re-earn that.' He continued: 'I think people are learning the very, very, very hard way that you can change the government of Westminster, but it doesn't change the outcomes for your lives.' He was asked directly if there should be a convention on independence – something other pro-independence parties have demanded – but instead suggested that his focus is on 'doing really well politically, engaging with the public and shifting the tectonic plates'. The First Minister is gambling that Scots who are currently either undecided or against independence will think again if there is a chance Nigel Farage becomes the next prime minister. But that doesn't answer the question of how any future Scottish Government secures an IndyRef2. There is next to no chance Keir Starmer would agree to such a prospect. Would Nigel Farage? His previous remarks suggest not. He told The Times last month: "I'm not that worried about the SNP. Yes, they're going to have a resurgence. Scotland is not going to leave the United Kingdom. It's not going to happen in a month of Sundays."
