The SNP look knackered & they're clinging on – a second independence referendum is last thing John Swinney wants now

Scottish Sun

2 days ago

Mr Swinney both wants and doesn't want IndyRef2 - both things are true
CHRIS MUSSON The SNP look knackered & they're clinging on – a second independence referendum is last thing John Swinney wants now
JOHN Swinney may well be telling the country he wants to style next year's Holyrood election as a referendum on having an independence referendum.
But here's a thing. I don't think he is remotely serious about the idea of a re-run of 2014, at least not any time in the next few years.
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First Minister John Swinney
Credit: PA
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Swinney wants next year's Holyrood vote to be a referendum on IndyRef2
Credit: Alamy
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The Scottish Sun's political guru Chris Musson
Credit: Andrew Barr
In fact, it's probably one of the last things the First Minister wants right now.
It's probably on a list somewhere in the recesses of his mind alongside the nightmare news that Donald Trump loved their dinner so much that he's on his way back to Scotland and asking to play 36 holes with him.
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All of this may sound odd — the idea that the SNP leader says he wants an independence referendum, and at the same time he doesn't. But both can be true.
Because we have entered the realm of the Nats talking up the break-up of the UK purely because it's a neat line which helps shore up their core vote and whip up their activists at elections, and not because they have any expectation of actually delivering it.
That will doubtless come as a disappointment to the many supporters of independence, but there are many advocates of indy who would agree with me.
Bluntly, the SNP look knackered. They are clinging to power, with many in the ranks fearing a day of reckoning on May 7 next year, regardless of currently being ahead in the opinion polls due to Labour's rocky first year in power down south.
So, here we are. In case of emergency, break glass and hit the indy button.
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Scotland is being asked to go along with the man known as Honest John — if a tad mockingly — but on this occasion, at least, he's being anything but.
I have no doubt Swinney wants independence but he would only want a second referendum when he would be sure to win, and having won, have a chance of not plunging Scotland — utterly dependent on UK pooling and sharing — into economic meltdown.
That time is not now. And beneath the bluster, there is no serious plan — not for achieving a referendum, and not for indy itself.
John Swinney's Edinburgh show interrupted
To win independence, the Nats must do three things. Firstly, govern Scotland so well that people think they are capable of running an independent country.
Secondly, they must be up front that it will be extremely hard work.
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Thirdly, they must persuade Scots that hard work will be worth it.
At the moment they are a light year away from meeting any of these tests, all of which are linked by the key theme of trust.
Salmond got pretty close in 2014, but fell short on the second and third. If and when the tests are met, and opinion polling shows a clear majority of Scots want a referendum imminently, then the UK Government will — politically at least — be unable to say no.
But there is no mass clamour now for a referendum. Polls may show support for independence among decided voters is at around 50 per cent, but it's a whole lot easier to say Yes to something when it's entirely hypothetical.
Our leaders could learn a thing or two from President Trump
DONALD Trump may be deeply disliked by many, but he certainly isn't camera shy.
Our governments could learn a thing or two about transparency from the President.
As underlined by his visit to Scotland, he has a reporters following him everywhere, who he speaks to often multiple times a day.
You may not like his answers, but at least he's willing to be quizzed.
Compare that to the petty secrecy from the Scottish Government, who act like guard dogs and tend to keep the Press away from the First Minister, and hide his whereabouts.
If the Leader the Free World can face the music on a daily basis, why can't the Leader of a Devolved Scottish Administration?
The world has become a far more unstable place in recent years, and the idea that a majority of Scots want a referendum thrown into all that is ridiculous, and Swinney knows it. So, what's he up to?
He sees those opinion polls, with support for independence far higher than support for the SNP.
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He wants to persuade activists and voters to act in the same way as they would if there was a realistic prospect of a referendum.
He is inviting you into an alternative reality. It's a campaigning device. A trick. A ruse. His desired outcome is three-pronged.
Mobilise the SNP base, try to hoover up some of those voters who say they back independence but not the Nats, and distract from the real big picture — not the constitution, but the terrible state of Scotland's public services after what will be 19 years of his party's rule.
But the strategy is fraught with pitfalls.
Will it mobilise the base? With the best will in the world, I'm not sure even Swinney in his self-styled Full-On John mode can energise the Nats like Salmond or Nicola Sturgeon.
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Will it hoover up some of those pro-indy non-SNP voters? It may. But it may also have an opposite effect, which is to alienate the floating voters who think he's at it, or current SNP backers who don't support independence.
And on that distraction technique — it may only serve to sharpen the focus on those failures, if the opposition calls it out.
The referendum-on-a-referendum strategy is also a lazy one. It betrays a lack of confidence in campaigning on their track record or vision for Scotland.
It shows what a state the SNP are in, behind the bravado of the press releases celebrating being ahead in the opinion polls.
They know the lead is precarious and they know they are a long way down on their levels of support at the 2021 election.
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They know independence is as far away as it has been at any point since 2014.
Yet Swinney is telling you and telling his tribe that the next election is all about indy.
Not only does it show how daft Swinney thinks voters are, but also his own party.
It's all about clinging on to power — on the back of a lie.