How will grade deflation play out for Leaving Cert exam results?
Students were promised a "glide" not a "cliff edge" and our Education Correspondent Emma O Kelly has been looking at how this might play out.
Leaving Certificate results have been artificially inflated for the past number of years, ever since the pandemic disrupted learning for so many. This year sees the beginning of an end to that.
While the class of 2025 will have their marks boosted in a post marking adjustment, their boost will be smaller than that of previous years as the State Examinations Commission begins the gradual "glide" back to pre-Covid marking levels that was promised to students.
So what level of adjustment will be made this year?
For the past three years Leaving Cert marks have been artificially hiked by an average of around 7%. The ultimate goal is to bring results back to pre-pandemic 2019 levels, when no artificial increase of this kind was applied to raw exam scores. This is being done on a phased basis, starting now.
This year the State Examinations Commission wants to revert to somewhere between 2020 and 2021 levels.
2020 was the year that the Leaving Certificate was cancelled. Results that year rose by around 4% compared to 2019 as marks based on teacher estimates and national standardisation were issued.
The gap grew to 7% in 2021, when a combination of estimated grades and exams were used and students were awarded whichever result was higher.
They have remained at this artificially high level ever since.
It has been estimated that bringing results back down to between 2020 and 2021 levels could mean an artificial boost this year of around 4.5%, but the actual percentage depends on where the raw unadjusted results land first.
What impact might this have on points and college entry?
There is no doubt that this year's overall results will be lower than last year's. That is inevitable.
This may well lead to a fall in points. Any such fall will simply be a reflection of this year's lower Leaving Cert grades.
Fear has been expressed that this year's Leaving Cert students will be at a disadvantage if they end up competing with students from previous recent years who have reapplied to CAO.
Those students would have a competitive advantage because their results in aggregate are higher.
But there is no evidence that significant numbers of students from recent past Leaving Cert years are reapplying to the CAO this year.
The results gap between this year's high performing students and last year's will also be the narrowest.
This is because the post marking adjustment has always been applied on a sliding scale, so last year, while it averaged at 7.5%, the adjustment was greatest for lower performing students – 12% - and smallest at the top, at just 4.8%.
Will we see greater competition for college places this year?
The points race is always dictated by supply and demand - how many places there are on a given course, and how many students are vying for those places.
There is one more significant factor that will put pressure on the system this year. Demographic growth has led to record CAO applications; they are up by 8.5% compared to 2024.
Numbers sitting the Leaving Certificate exams this year also rose strongly, by 7%.
This means significantly more students are looking for college places this year, and this inevitably places more pressure on the system.
More Leaving Cert candidates are also opting to sit subjects at Higher Level.
On the plus side, supply is being increased in some areas, with additional places being offered this year on new courses in some disciplines that are in high demand, such as dentistry, medicine, and speech and language therapy.
When will we find out?
Students can access their Leaving Certificate results from 10am this coming Friday 22 August via the State Examinations Commission self-service portal.
Many students may prefer to go back to their old school for one last time where their results will also be made available to them.
This year's initial CAO offers will be made to applicants at 2pm on Wednesday 27 August, and as students accept or reject those places, further offers will be made in subsequent rounds.
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