India-Pakistan Conflict: A Ticking Time Bomb For Chinese Strategy

India.com

09-05-2025

New Delhi: Following Pakistan's aggression in Indian territories from Thursday evening, tensions between the two nations have significantly escalated. India's calculated and controlled attack on terrorist infrastructures across the border as part of the ongoing 'Operation Sindoor' to avenge the April 22 Pahalgam attack has drawn global reactions, including from China.
China's Foreign Ministry termed India's airstrikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir as 'regrettable'. A ministry spokesperson expressed 'concern' over the current situation. 'India and Pakistan are neighbours and will always be. Both are also China's neighbours. China opposes all forms of terrorism,' said the spokesperson.
China urged both countries to 'remain calm, exercise restraint and avoid actions that could further complicate the situation'. Experts believe China would never want Pakistan to become unstable, as that would jeopardise billions of dollars in Chinese investment. The country has invested approximately $68 billion in Pakistan from 2024 to 2005.
This includes major investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Instability would threaten China's dream of establishing overland connectivity to Central Asia. Experts are of the view: 'Tensions in this region directly affect China's investments and strategic goals. China would never want its interests to be compromised.'
China-Pak Diplomatic And Strategic Ties
Diplomatic relations between China and Pakistan began on May 21, 1951. Over the decades, defence cooperation and diplomatic relations have grown, and Pakistan has become increasingly economically dependent on China. Though China supplies weapons to Pakistan, it has never directly supported it in a war against India. As India has grown closer to Western countries, Pakistan has leaned more heavily on China.
China has backed Pakistan at critical junctures such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) proceedings or financial bailouts. However, it has maintained a balance in its relations with India too. The experts argue that China would never want a war or even the threat of war between India and Pakistan. It would damage its interests and raise major concerns in Central Asia.
They add that China is already in a trade war with the United States and would prefer to maintain stable ties with India during this time. China is interest-driven and avoids entanglement in conflicts. Therefore, it has never supported Pakistan militarily against India.
China wants to develop its Xinjiang province, which borders both India and Pakistan. That is only feasible if its CPEC and BRI projects in Pakistan succeed. India has long opposed the two projects. And China would not want that opposition from India to grow stronger.
China-Pak Trade Ties
At present, China is Pakistan's largest trading partner and its top import source. Bilateral trade between China and Pakistan, according to Chinese customs, reached $23.1 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase. China's exports to Pakistan rose 17% to $20.2 billion, while imports fell 18.2% to $2.8 billion.
With around $5.6 billion, electronics and machinery made up a significant portion, including 35% semiconductors and 27% smartphones and telecom equipment. Other key exports included $2.4 billion worth of nuclear reactors, boilers and mechanical equipment and $1.3 billion worth of iron and steel products.
When trade with a country is this large, it is only natural to want a stable environment to secure economic interests. Many Chinese projects in Pakistan are already under threat. Rising tensions would only increase risks, especially as Chinese citizens in Pakistan already face security threats.
Strategic Interests
Pakistan has become closer to China and is maintaining an increased distance from the United States. The two countries not only conduct joint military exercises but also have major defence deals. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 81% of Pakistan's weapons imports over the last five years came from China. Four out of every five weapons Pakistan acquired were Chinese-made.
China supplied PL-15 and SD-10 missiles, equipped with modern Beyond Visual Range (BVR) technology, capable of striking airborne targets from long distances. China gains access to Gulf countries through Pakistan. And therefore, it is in the best interest of China to maintain peace and stability in Pakistan as instability would prevent the former from realising economic benefits. For instance, the Gwadar port is ready, but it can only be fully utilised if peace prevails.
Therefore, China is consistently urging restraint from both sides and aims to stay out of regional conflicts. He says China's current trade tensions with the United States make it even more reluctant to create friction with India, which is one of its major trade partners. India seeks strong global support like Israel receives against terrorism. However, China's diplomatic tilt toward Pakistan often dilutes India's global standing.