'Don't foresee them getting directly involved': Ex-army commander on China's possible role amid India-Pakistan tension after Pahalgam attack

Time of India

27-04-2025

Security personnel rushed to the spot after terrorists attacked a group of tourists at Pahalgam (PTI photo)
NEW DELHI: China is expected to avoid direct intervention in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack, given the current geopolitical dynamics and tariff complexities, despite its longstanding alliance with Pakistan, according to former Army commander Lt Gen (retd) Rana Pratap Kalita.
"Following the Galwan 2020 incident, after extensive consultations between the two countries, the standoff at the last friction points was resolved," Lt Gen Kalita told PTI. "Since then, bilateral relations have improved, with discussions on direct flights and the resumption of the
Kailash Mansarovar Yatra
."
Despite this progress, both India and China are grappling with rising US trade tariffs, which are impacting the global economy. As major manufacturing and consumer markets, both nations are particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in tariffs.
"Considering the complexities of geopolitics and the current situation, it's difficult to predict whether China will directly intervene in the instability caused by the Pahalgam incident. But for now, I don't foresee them getting directly involved," Kalita stated. He also acknowledged China's strategic interests in the region, highlighting the vulnerability of Pakistan's sea link and the importance of access to the Arabian Sea through Pakistan for China.
On the Bangladesh border, Kalita pointed to continuing vulnerabilities, particularly after the recent political changes in the country. "With the deposition of the Sheikh Hasina government, there has been a rise in anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, driven by religious fundamentalists," he said.
The release of leaders from the terrorist group Ansarul Bangla and other such factions, following the establishment of the caretaker government, has contributed to growing anti-India sentiment in the region.
Kalita also noted the influence of senior Pakistani military officials, including the DG of the ISI, who recently met with key figures in Bangladesh, further complicating the security situation. The infiltration of Bangladeshi nationals, aimed at spreading Islamic fundamentalism in India's northeast, remains a significant concern, particularly in Assam and Tripura.
The strategic importance of the Siliguri corridor, crucial for northeast connectivity, was also highlighted as a vulnerable point. Additionally, the potential reestablishment of terrorist camps in Bangladesh, previously used by groups like ULFA, presents a continuing security challenge.
Despite these concerns, Kalita expressed confidence in India's preparedness. "Periodic threat assessments are carried out regularly, and response mechanisms are in place accordingly. I am confident in the Indian armed forces' readiness to address any situation," he said.
The recent tense situation between India-Pakistan comes after the deadly
Pahalgam attack
in which terrorists attacked tourists at Baisaran meadow on April 22, resulting in 26 fatalities, including one Nepali national, while many others sustained injuries. Following this incident, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a statement to track down the perpetrators "to the ends of the earth," which led to intensified security operations involving demolitions and encounters.
Following the attack, the government implemented several measures, including the suspension of the 1960
Indus Water Treaty
, reduction in diplomatic relations with Pakistan, and closure of the Attari checkpost.
Hostilities further intensified along the Line of Control (LoC) as Pakistan Army outposts commenced unprovoked small arms firing during the night of April 26-27. The Indian Army delivered an appropriate retaliatory response.