Why Taiwan fears outside world will abandon it if China invades

New York Post

5 days ago

TAIPEI — Taiwanese officials are worried their country will have difficulty attracting international support should China launch an invasion — as the self-governing island's independence is recognized by just 12 countries worldwide.
'Ukraine is a [United Nations] member state, and Taiwan is not,' Liang Wen-Chieh, deputy minister of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, told The Post last week. 'Therefore, if there is war between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we will undoubtedly receive much less aid from the international community than Ukraine.'
American and Taiwanese officials have estimated China will be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027 after rapidly modernizing its military over the past two decades.
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'The reason why the year 2027 is mentioned so many times is because it is the junction where the current term of [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] will end that year and the next term will begin,' Liang said. 'So in order to stay in power, Xi will have to possibly use force against Taiwan.'
5 Two soldiers lower the Taiwan national flag during the daily flag ceremony at the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall in Taipei, Taiwan on April 29, 2025.
AP
5 Deputy Minister of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council Liang Wen-Chieh said he believes Taiwan would receive less world support that Ukraine has should China invade its territory.
Mainland Affairs Council
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China and Taiwan have no diplomatic relations, and Beijing refuses any kind of communication with the island. Though China claims Taiwan as its own, the island is entirely self-funded, self-governed and otherwise operates as an independent, democratic country.
Still, most of the world does not recognize Taiwan's independence, primarily because doing so means crossing the Chinese Communist Party. The 12 countries that currently recognize Taiwan include Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, the Marshall Islands, Palau, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Eswatini, Tuvalu, and the Vatican.
Even the US adheres to the so-called 'One China' principle, which acknowledges China's ambition to bring Taiwan under its control, but does not take sides on the issue.
5 Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te walks past soldiers at a naval base following Chinese military drills earlier in the week, in Taoyuan on Oct. 18, 2024.
AFP via Getty Images
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Beijing regularly threatens any nations that attempt to recognize Taiwan's sovereignty, with Chinese President Xi Jinping considering unification of his country and the island a top priority.
The People's Republic of China also continually threatens Taiwan itself, launching military exercises in the waters surrounding the island.
Still, only about a quarter of the island's population believes Beijing will attempt to annex the island within the next five years, according to Kuan-Chen Lee, a fellow at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR).
5 Chinese President Xi Jinping has said that annexing Taiwan is one of his top goals.
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'More than 60% of our respondents say that China is the most important threat facing Taiwan,' he said.
One thing working in Taipei's favor is global skepticism of the China-Russia axis following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
'When [the Ukraine War] broke out in 2022, everyone thought about, 'Today Ukraine, tomorrow Taiwan.' We're also thinking about that right now,' said INDSR research fellow Ming-Shih Shen. 'China supports Russia in its war. And the day when China invades Taiwan, and how will Russia support or help China?
5 Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping attend a military parade on Victory Day, marking the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, in Red Square in central Moscow on May 9.
via REUTERS
'Recently, you can see that Xi Jinping joined the military parade in Moscow [to mark V-E Day]. And many experts or analysts think that maybe Xi Jinping and Putin already formed some agreement.'
While Liang worried the threat wouldn't be enough to secure the world's support, Ukrainian Armed Forces Cmdr. Oleh Shyriaiev told The Post he believes the international community would come to Taiwan's aid should another Goliath invade a David.
'Civilized capitalist countries will be protecting the world from the plague that is communism,' he said by phone from the battlefield. 'The political system, both in Russia and China, is a hybrid, quasi-Communist creation, so I do not think that the collective West will abandon Taiwan without help.
'Our mainstay is that together we have achieved victory over Hitler, and we will do the same together again — we will achieve victory over Putin [and Xi].'