Latest news with #MainlandAffairsCouncil
Daily Maverick
6 days ago
- Business
- Daily Maverick
‘Not Today' — Taiwan strives to give Xi Jinping second thoughts about attacking its island neighbour
There is a widespread belief in Taiwan that Chinese President Xi Jinping wants to invade Taiwan by 2027, the centenary of the creation of the Chinese army, and the year that Xi's current term will end. China's President Xi Jinping wakes up every day, looks at himself in the mirror as he shaves and says, 'Okay, I want to be the greatest emperor of China. I want to conquer Taiwan. Okay, it is my job. It is my will. It is the reason [for] my existence. 'I want to conquer Taiwan. But today is not a good day. I cannot do that.' That, at least, is the scene in Xi's bathroom that Taiwan's Deputy Foreign Minister François Chihchung Wu imagines. The vision animates Taiwan's Not Today Policy, which he says is to keep ensuring Xi has second thoughts every day about the wisdom of invading China's tiny island neighbour, which it regards as a mere 'renegade province of the People's Republic of China (PRC). The Not Today policy largely rests on military deterrence and strong military alliances, especially with the United States, and persuading the world that Taiwan is indispensable. Walking the streets of Taipei, it is hard to imagine why any deterrent is needed. One senses no fear of imminent attack. And why would anyone want to destroy this country of 23 million friendly, vibrant, industrious people and its flourishing, sophisticated economy, the 22nd largest in the world, with a nominal GDP of $814.44-billion, according to the International Monetary Fund? A recent survey by Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) found that while 60% of Taiwanese believe China is the most important threat facing Taiwan (versus energy shortage, the plummeting birth rate, and so on), only one quarter expected an invasion during the next five years. Liang Wen-chieh, Deputy Minister of the Mainland Affairs Council, says the Taiwanese people have been living under military threat since the country was founded in 1949, and so have grown used to it. This, though, is a double-edged sword, he says. On the good side, it allows people to 'dedicate themselves to the economy'. It also avoids causing public alarm, says INDSR research fellow Ming-shih Shen. But Liang also suggests it has made the Taiwanese complacent, though the military authorities take the threat very seriously and remain on full alert. The Mainland Affairs Council has a mandate to negotiate with the mainland. But Beijing has terminated talks. Ordinary Taiwanese tell you that the extent of war preparedness is basically that if the government sounds an alarm, they must stay indoors until further notice. The government did, however, conduct a whole-of-society exercise in March in Tainan city, rehearsing medical and other responses to an invasion. Xi's perceived deadline But if ordinary people seem a bit blasé, one gathers from officials, journalists and analysts a widespread belief that Xi would like to invade Taiwan by 2027. Wu says that is because 2027 will be the centenary of the creation of the Chinese army, and Xi wants to use the occasion to demonstrate that it has become the best army in the world, by conquering Taiwan. Liang, on the other hand, believes 2027 is the key date because that is when Xi's current term as president will end. 'So in order to stay in power, Xi will have to possibly use force against Taiwan.' Certainly, China has been amping up the military pressure lately. Last year, it conducted two major military exercises around Taiwan. In April this year, a third called 'Strait Thunder' was conducted with 38 naval ships, including an aircraft carrier strike group. China's military tactics included live-fire drills into the East China Sea. A Chinese military spokesperson said the drills involved 'precision strikes on simulated targets of key ports and energy facilities'. China also launched scores of sorties by its warplanes into Taiwan's airspace. Taiwanese officials say these sorties have increased from 380 in 2020 to 3,080 last year, with a likely increase this year. The intensified military exercises are one reason why some believe the long-feared Chinese attack against Taiwan could be 'closer than you think', as The Economist predicted in its cover story earlier this month. It also posited that greater uncertainty about whether the isolationist and unpredictable Donald Trump would rush to Taiwan's defence and Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te's failure to decisively raise defence spending (because of opposition from the China-appeasing KMT party which has more votes in parliament than Lai's Democratic Progress Party) could very well persuade Xi, if not to invade, then at least to strangle the island into submission by a blockade or economic sanctions and quarantines. Washington 'ambiguity' The US has long pursued a policy of 'strategic ambiguity' towards Taiwan. This means not explicitly declaring that it would come to Taiwan's defence. The idea is to discourage Taiwan from declaring formal independence from China, which would almost certainly provoke an immediate attack. But ex-President Joe Biden nonetheless made it clear that the US would defend Taiwan. Trump has been far more ambiguous. Da-nien Liu, deputy director at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research in Taipei, told visiting international journalists last week that he was 'shocked' when Trump declared recently, after the US and China ended their trade war, that this truce would be good for 'peace and unification'. Liu said that made Taiwanese suspect that Trump would not defend them. Liang observes that Taiwan is still trying very hard to understand the real attitude of the Trump administration towards Taiwan and China. Taipei is concerned that Trump 'is actually turning the past allies into foes', referring to his threats to annex Canada, for example On the other hand, Taipei notes that top US officials such as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are 'more aligned with the Biden administration' (ie ready to defend Taiwan). Taiwan's pillars of deterrence Deputy Foreign Minister Wu, however, says that despite all the indications that Xi wishes to invade by 2027, this will not happen because of Taiwan's 'Not Today Policy'. He says it rests on three pillars of deterrence. The first is that Taiwan is increasing its defence spending significantly. It now constitutes more than 16% of the national budget – greater, proportionately, than that of the US, whose defence spending constitutes 12% of its budget. Wu says Lai has already announced that defence spending will increase from 2.45% to 3% of GDP – or 20% of the national budget. The second pillar is the deterrence provided by Taiwan's military allies, notably the US. He says that the US, Germany, France, Canada, Italy, Japan, Turkiye, Australia, New Zealand and the Netherlands have all sent warships to Taiwan in recent years. For Japan, that was the first time since World War 2. That in part is because about half of global trade passes through the narrow Taiwan Strait between Taiwan and China, and these countries don't want that thoroughfare to be interrupted by war. The third pillar, Wu says, is that Taiwan is trying hard to show the world that it is vital to the international community and so should be allowed to join international organisations. Wu notes that Taiwan alerted the World Health Organisation (WHO) as early as December 2019 to the Covid-19 pandemic brewing in China. The WHO ignored the warning because Taiwan was not a member, allowing the pandemic to take off before it was eventually officially acknowledged. To these deterrents, the 'silicon shield' should be added: Taiwan's global superiority in manufacturing semiconductors, or advanced computer chips, which are vital to almost every industry, including motor vehicles and weapons. Wu says about 60% of all semiconductors and 95% of advanced chips are made in Taiwan, while 100% of the even more sophisticated chips are manufactured in his country. He says most of the most advanced chips in America's frontline fighter jet, the F-35, are made in Taiwan. Last week, many Western nations attended the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain Forum in Taipei, underscoring the importance of the country to their hi-tech manufacturing industries. For Wu and Liang, though, the dominant factor determining whether China will invade Taiwan 'is a clear calculation on whether they can secure victory rapidly, before interference from the US', as Liang says. 'So now we know that the reason why Putin decided to invade Ukraine was because he thought that he could take Ukraine and end the war within seven to 10 days. 'And if China thinks this way, then there is a high possibility that there would be a war. 'So what we are trying to do is to prevent China from thinking this way.' China justified its recent military drills off Taiwan as 'a stern warning to and powerful deterrent against separatist forces agitating for Taiwan independence.' Some still believe that the ruling Democratic Progress Party is more likely to provoke a Chinese attack than a government led by the opposition KMT, which is less vocal about independence. Liang disagrees. He notes that while Xi's predecessors were content to leave Taiwan alone as long as it did not declare independence, Xi is very different, because he is striving to achieve the unification of the two Chinas, regardless. Asymmetrical warfare Ming-shih Shen, research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, says that Taiwan is no match for China militarily, even though Taipei is trying to upgrade rapidly by acquiring more modern fighter jets and other weapons. But he says Taiwan is pursuing a strategy of asymmetrical warfare, concentrating on defensive weaponry such as anti-aircraft, anti-ship and other missiles, drones and submarines. He notes that China is also still too short of vital equipment such as landing craft, and its marine corps is too weak to conduct a full-scale invasion now. Like most analysts, he believes that Taiwan's reliance on outside energy sources is its Achilles heel. That would probably enable it to withstand an invasion or blockade for no more than two weeks. However, he notes that Taiwan has signed a supply contract with a US company to supply liquid natural gas to Taiwan. 'If the United States can send its coast guard or navy ships to protect this liquid gas ship, no problem.' Otherwise, he also says plans are under way to build a gas pipeline from Alaska via Japan to Taiwan. There are a lot of ifs in all of that, but Wu nonetheless concludes that 'with this Not Today Policy, 2027 will not be the year that China will be able to conquer Taiwan, even if they want to'. DM
New York Post
6 days ago
- Politics
- New York Post
Why Taiwan fears outside world will abandon it if China invades
TAIPEI — Taiwanese officials are worried their country will have difficulty attracting international support should China launch an invasion — as the self-governing island's independence is recognized by just 12 countries worldwide. 'Ukraine is a [United Nations] member state, and Taiwan is not,' Liang Wen-Chieh, deputy minister of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, told The Post last week. 'Therefore, if there is war between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we will undoubtedly receive much less aid from the international community than Ukraine.' American and Taiwanese officials have estimated China will be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027 after rapidly modernizing its military over the past two decades. Advertisement 'The reason why the year 2027 is mentioned so many times is because it is the junction where the current term of [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] will end that year and the next term will begin,' Liang said. 'So in order to stay in power, Xi will have to possibly use force against Taiwan.' 5 Two soldiers lower the Taiwan national flag during the daily flag ceremony at the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall in Taipei, Taiwan on April 29, 2025. AP 5 Deputy Minister of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council Liang Wen-Chieh said he believes Taiwan would receive less world support that Ukraine has should China invade its territory. Mainland Affairs Council Advertisement China and Taiwan have no diplomatic relations, and Beijing refuses any kind of communication with the island. Though China claims Taiwan as its own, the island is entirely self-funded, self-governed and otherwise operates as an independent, democratic country. Still, most of the world does not recognize Taiwan's independence, primarily because doing so means crossing the Chinese Communist Party. The 12 countries that currently recognize Taiwan include Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, the Marshall Islands, Palau, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Eswatini, Tuvalu, and the Vatican. Even the US adheres to the so-called 'One China' principle, which acknowledges China's ambition to bring Taiwan under its control, but does not take sides on the issue. 5 Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te walks past soldiers at a naval base following Chinese military drills earlier in the week, in Taoyuan on Oct. 18, 2024. AFP via Getty Images Advertisement Beijing regularly threatens any nations that attempt to recognize Taiwan's sovereignty, with Chinese President Xi Jinping considering unification of his country and the island a top priority. The People's Republic of China also continually threatens Taiwan itself, launching military exercises in the waters surrounding the island. Still, only about a quarter of the island's population believes Beijing will attempt to annex the island within the next five years, according to Kuan-Chen Lee, a fellow at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR). 5 Chinese President Xi Jinping has said that annexing Taiwan is one of his top goals. Getty Images Advertisement 'More than 60% of our respondents say that China is the most important threat facing Taiwan,' he said. One thing working in Taipei's favor is global skepticism of the China-Russia axis following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. 'When [the Ukraine War] broke out in 2022, everyone thought about, 'Today Ukraine, tomorrow Taiwan.' We're also thinking about that right now,' said INDSR research fellow Ming-Shih Shen. 'China supports Russia in its war. And the day when China invades Taiwan, and how will Russia support or help China? 5 Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping attend a military parade on Victory Day, marking the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, in Red Square in central Moscow on May 9. via REUTERS 'Recently, you can see that Xi Jinping joined the military parade in Moscow [to mark V-E Day]. And many experts or analysts think that maybe Xi Jinping and Putin already formed some agreement.' While Liang worried the threat wouldn't be enough to secure the world's support, Ukrainian Armed Forces Cmdr. Oleh Shyriaiev told The Post he believes the international community would come to Taiwan's aid should another Goliath invade a David. 'Civilized capitalist countries will be protecting the world from the plague that is communism,' he said by phone from the battlefield. 'The political system, both in Russia and China, is a hybrid, quasi-Communist creation, so I do not think that the collective West will abandon Taiwan without help. 'Our mainstay is that together we have achieved victory over Hitler, and we will do the same together again — we will achieve victory over Putin [and Xi].'
Straits Times
28-05-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
China being provocative, ignoring olive branches, top Taiwan policymaker says
FILE PHOTO: Aircraft carriers and airplane are seen in front of Chinese and Taiwanese flags in this illustration, August 6, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo TAIPEI - China is being provocative with an "extreme pressure" campaign against Taiwan and is intentionally ignoring the island's olive branches and goodwill, its top China policy maker told Reuters, as Beijing ratchets up its tactics against Taipei. China, which views Taiwan as its own territory despite the rejection of that position by the democratic and separately governed island, has stepped up military and political pressure on it, calling President Lai Ching-te a dangerous "separatist". Since Lai took office in May last year, China has held at least three rounds of major war games around Taiwan, while also threatening the death penalty for "diehard" supporters of its independence, and setting up hotlines to report such activity. Mainland Affairs Council minister Chiu Chui-cheng said Beijing should own up to its responsibility for stoking tension by exerting "extreme pressure" which includes almost daily military incursions near Taiwan and public influence campaigns. "It's true that we don't see any sincerity from mainland China," Chiu said this week, speaking in his office in central Taipei. He repeated the government's offer for talks with China based on equality and respect, but without Beijing's political preconditions. "We have made a lot of effort and offered many olive branches," Chiu added. "We are a democratic country and it is impossible for us to accept your political premise of eliminating the Republic of China, belittling Taiwan or treating Taiwan as part of the People's Republic of China." The defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war with Mao Zedong's communists, and that remains the island's formal name. No peace treaty has ever been signed, and neither government recognises the other. Asked on Wednesday about Taiwan saying it was showing goodwill towards China, a spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office said it was an "objective fact" the island was part of China. "Scheming for Taiwan's independence and secession means there is no way to talk about cross-Strait dialogue and consultations," spokesperson Chen Binhua told reporters in Beijing. "It will only undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait." CHINA A "HOSTILE FORCE" In March, Lai called China a "foreign hostile force", saying it had deepened its influence campaigns and infiltration tactics against the island, while pledging measures to tackle Beijing's efforts to "absorb" Taiwan. An angry China responded with a new round of war games. "We were just explaining the facts to everyone," Chiu said of Lai's description of China. "The serious threat level to Taiwan from mainland China, the Beijing authorities, can be described as extreme pressure pressing ever closer." Chiu said China's hotlines to report supposed separatist activity, which Beijing says generated 6,000 reports, had only served to sow fear amongst Taiwan's sizeable business community in China, spurring some to leave. He compared such "indiscriminate reporting" to actions during the Cultural Revolution of 1966-1976 in China, referring to the decade of chaos and violence unleashed after Mao declared class war, turning neighbours and families against each other. "I myself have heard many of our Taiwanese business people say, 'We have been in mainland China for 30 to 40 years, and we are willing to stay here even if the economy is bad, but living in an environment where we are on edge and worried about being reported day and night, that's why I decided to leave.'" REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Reuters
28-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
China being provocative, ignoring olive branches, top Taiwan policymaker says
TAIPEI, May 28 (Reuters) - China is being provocative with an "extreme pressure" campaign against Taiwan and is intentionally ignoring the island's olive branches and goodwill, its top China policy maker told Reuters, as Beijing ratchets up its tactics against Taipei. China, which views Taiwan as its own territory despite the rejection of that position by the democratic and separately governed island, has stepped up military and political pressure on it, calling President Lai Ching-te a dangerous "separatist". Since Lai took office in May last year, China has held at least three rounds of major war games around Taiwan, while also threatening the death penalty for "diehard" supporters of its independence, and setting up, opens new tab hotlines to report such activity. Mainland Affairs Council minister Chiu Chui-cheng said Beijing should own up to its responsibility for stoking tension by exerting "extreme pressure" which includes almost daily military incursions near Taiwan and public influence campaigns. "It's true that we don't see any sincerity from mainland China," Chiu said this week, speaking in his office in central Taipei. He repeated the government's offer for talks with China based on equality and respect, but without Beijing's political preconditions. "We have made a lot of effort and offered many olive branches," Chiu added. "We are a democratic country and it is impossible for us to accept your political premise of eliminating the Republic of China, belittling Taiwan or treating Taiwan as part of the People's Republic of China." The defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war with Mao Zedong's communists, and that remains the island's formal name. No peace treaty has ever been signed, and neither government recognises the other. Asked on Wednesday about Taiwan saying it was showing goodwill towards China, a spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office said it was an "objective fact" the island was part of China. "Scheming for Taiwan's independence and secession means there is no way to talk about cross-Strait dialogue and consultations," spokesperson Chen Binhua told reporters in Beijing. "It will only undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait." In March, Lai called China a "foreign hostile force", saying it had deepened its influence campaigns and infiltration tactics against the island, while pledging measures, opens new tab to tackle Beijing's efforts to "absorb" Taiwan. An angry China responded, opens new tab with a new round of war games. "We were just explaining the facts to everyone," Chiu said of Lai's description of China. "The serious threat level to Taiwan from mainland China, the Beijing authorities, can be described as extreme pressure pressing ever closer." Chiu said China's hotlines to report supposed separatist activity, which Beijing says generated 6,000 reports, had only served to sow fear amongst Taiwan's sizeable business community in China, spurring some to leave. He compared such "indiscriminate reporting" to actions during the Cultural Revolution of 1966-1976 in China, referring to the decade of chaos and violence unleashed after Mao declared class war, turning neighbours and families against each other. "I myself have heard many of our Taiwanese business people say, 'We have been in mainland China for 30 to 40 years, and we are willing to stay here even if the economy is bad, but living in an environment where we are on edge and worried about being reported day and night, that's why I decided to leave.'"
The Hindu
27-05-2025
- Politics
- The Hindu
China accuses Taiwan of cyberattack on tech company
Chinese public security authorities in the city of Guangzhou have attributed a cyberattack on an unnamed technology company to the Taiwan government, a statement showed on Tuesday. The foreign hacker organisation behind the attack was "supported by" Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), authorities in the capital of Guangdong province said, based on an initial police investigation. The DPP is the ruling party in Taiwan. The Mainland Affairs Council in Taiwan did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
