UAE Set for Accelerated Growth on Diversified Economy
Arabian Post Staff -Dubai
The World Bank has raised its forecast for the UAE's gross domestic product to 4.6 percent in 2025, marking a notable upward revision of 0.6 percentage points from its January outlook. The renewed projection is driven by strong momentum in non‑oil sectors—tourism, construction, transportation and finance—while the phased easing of OPEC+ production cuts is expected to support oil output growth.
Overall GCC growth is also tipped to rise to 3.2 percent in 2025, climbing further to 4.5 percent in 2026 and 4.8 percent in 2027. Globally, however, the World Bank projects a slowdown to 2.3 percent in 2025, the weakest expansion outside recessions since 2008 — due mainly to elevated trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
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Within the UAE, the non‑oil sector is poised to expand by roughly 4.9 percent in 2025, outpacing oil‑based growth. This upturn reflects robust activity in tourism, real estate, transport, and financial services. The first nine months of 2024 saw non‑oil GDP rise by 4.5 percent, a stronger contributor than the 1.5 percent growth recorded in oil GDP.
Analysts point to the UAE's strategic economic diversification as central to this trajectory. Public investment in infrastructure and tech industries, alongside governance reforms aimed at enhancing the business environment, have significantly boosted competitiveness. Free‑zone facilities and logistics integration—especially in Abu Dhabi—are improving supply chain efficiency, while the nation's Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements are broadening international trade links.
OPEC+ adjustments remain influential. The group is implementing a gradual withdrawal from voluntary oil output limits between May 2025 and September 2026, which the World Bank says will bolster oil GDP amid global price pressures. The UAE's oil GDP is thus anticipated to gain ground after a lull, providing a stabilising complement to the diversification agenda.
Risks persist, including uncertainty around global trade, fluctuating energy prices, and regulatory slowdowns. The World Bank notes that logistics sectors across the GCC could be affected by broader trade disruptions. Meanwhile, lower oil revenues may limit fiscal flexibility, even as sovereign buffers remain robust.
In Abu Dhabi, economic diversification efforts are visibly gaining traction. The non‑oil sector there grew by 6.2 percent in 2024, representing over half of the emirate's GDP at AED 644.3 billion. Large‑scale initiatives—such as new business districts, enhanced transport infrastructure, and collaborative zones linking academia with private industry—are expanding economic capacity.
Despite global headwinds, the UAE's fiscal position remains sound. The 2024 fiscal surplus stood at approximately 4.6 percent of GDP, supported by counter‑cyclical spending and healthy sovereign reserves. Inflation has moderated to near 2.3 percent, with the Central Bank maintaining supportive liquidity without compromising price stability.
Employment is also expected to benefit. The International Labour Organization projects job growth to remain around 3.3 percent in 2025, with unemployment steady at roughly 2.1 percent. Nonetheless, structural issues—such as high youth unemployment and gender disparities—persist, particularly among younger and female cohorts.
Looking ahead, the UAE is on track to sustain growth above 4 percent through 2027, with oil and non‑oil sectors contributing in tandem. Yet, global vulnerabilities underscore the need for continued diversification, fiscal prudence and trade resilience.
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