Israel-Iran war undermines Beijing's Mideast diplomatic push

France 24

6 hours ago

Beijing's muted response to the outbreak of war on June 12 between Israel and Iran speaks volumes about the awkward diplomatic position it finds itself in.
Chinese President Xi Jinping waited four days before expressing his views, calling on both sides on Tuesday 'to de-escalate the conflict as soon as possible' while offering to 'play a constructive role' on the diplomatic front without adding much in the way of details.
While China wants to present itself as a superpower with diplomatic clout on the international stage – capable of acting as a mediator that is an alternative to the United States – the current conflict is underscoring the limits of its international leverage.
Iran, a strategic partner for China
Beijing is economically very close to Tehran, principally because of Iran's energy resources.
'China is by far the largest importer of Iranian oil,' according to a State Department statement in March.
Most of the Gulf states' oil exports to Asia – including Iran's – pass through the chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait were to be closed, that could have a big impact on China, says Andrea Ghiselli, a specialist in China's international relations at the University of Exeter in the UK.
Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers
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For now, 'the oil price hasn't gone up that much', Ghiselli says. 'But it can be a huge problem if Iranian exports are halted, or especially if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. That would be a real issue.'
Iran has in the past threatened to close the Strait, through which some 20 percent of the world's global oil trade passes.
China and Iran signed a 25-year partnership deal in 2021 that included an agreement for Iran to join China's giant New Silk Roads investment programme. Beijing is counting on its strengthened ties to Iran to extend its influence in the Middle East – and not just economically.
The regime in Tehran 'opposes American hegemony, which, broadly speaking, is also one of the general goals of Chinese foreign policy', Ghiselli says. In forging ties with Iran, China wants to show neighbouring countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are more allied to Washington, that Beijing can be an alternative to the United States.
Iran, therefore, represents a gateway for Beijing into the region, says Marc Lanteigne, a China specialist at The Arctic University of Norway.
The fall of the regime in Tehran 'would be a major blow to Beijing's Gulf diplomacy, as well as its plans to develop deeper trade relations with the region as a whole", Lanteigne says. 'Regime collapse in Iran would almost certainly spiral outwards to other parts of the region' to undermine the stability that Beijing has worked to foster.
It is thanks to Beijing, for example, that arch foes Iran and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement to normalise relations in 2023. 'That is in danger of going up in smoke as a result of this war," says Lanteigne.
China has every interest in the Iranian government surviving this war. And Xi made no secret of his displeasure with the Israeli offensive when he spoke on Tuesday: 'We oppose any actions that infringe upon the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of other countries. Military conflict is not the solution to problems, and rising regional tensions do not align with the common interests of the international community,' state news agency Xinhua quoted him as saying.
China condemns Israel's attack on Iran
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Words, words, words
But Xi's options in the region are limited.
"At the moment, the Iranian authorities are looking around and wondering where their friends are,' Ghiselli says, noting that even Russia 'has decided to close its consulate in Tehran '.
'Iran doesn't need communiqués or declarations, but concrete help, like anti-aircraft systems or fighter jets," Ghiselli adds.
Some analysts say, however, that it is unthinkable that Beijing would supply arms to Iran. 'Iran has never been seen as an ally,' by China, Ghiselli says. Tehran is 'an important partner, of course, but the Chinese are very clear that they don't want to be drawn into regional conflicts'.
This is even more true as US President Donald Trump adopts an increasingly belligerent tone towards Iran. Against this backdrop, sending weapons to Tehran would run the risk of dragging China into a proxy conflict with the United States.
Beijing is currently 'trying to stabilise relations with Washington', says Lanteigne, and doesn't want to 'clash with the Trump administration at this point'.
This leaves Xi with the option of playing a 'constructive role" in diplomacy, as a possible mediator in future peace negotiations.
Risk of loss of influence
Beijing has had some notable successes as a diplomatic intermediary in the region. In addition to normalising ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, China also facilitated the 'national unity' agreement between Palestinian factions signed in July 2024.
But this time, Israel would have to agree to Beijing's mediation.
'Beijing would be pleased to further its credentials as an alternative peacemaker to the West, but in this case there is little China can do directly because China's leverage on Israel is modest at best. Especially given Chinese criticism of Israeli operations in Gaza,' notes Lanteigne.
'It is unlikely that the Israeli government would accept China as a mediator, especially since the Trump government has de facto thrown its support behind Israel and has hinted that it may get more involved in the conflict,' he adds.
China can try to intervene but not much more, which is 'probably a frustrating moment for them', Ghiselli says. 'It's definitely an important test for their diplomacy.'
And any overt sign of weakness risks tarnishing Beijing's image in the region.
China could lose allies or strengthen the China sceptics in key countries like Iran, where 'there is also a critical current of opinion that Beijing is, above all, taking advantage of Iran's international isolation to obtain cheap oil and flood the Iranian market with Chinese products', Ghiselli says.