May weather will not likely hit early monsoon onset: Experts
May has seen unusual weather in India, marked by frequent thunder- and dust-storms and below normal maximum temperatures over most parts of the country, but experts are convinced that this anomaly will not affect the onset of the Southwest Monsoon, which is expected to arrive early, in the last week of May.
One important factor for a normal monsoon over the country is formation of a so-called 'heat low' over Northwest India. This creates a trough of low pressure that sucks moist air from the monsoon trough . In the absence of this, the monsoon may be deficient.
Right now, there is no heat-low.
'Due to frequent western disturbances and moisture incursion, we are seeing intermittent thunderstorm activity and above normal rainfall. During May, temperatures have largely been below normal or normal over most parts of the country except Rajasthan where a heat wave is being recorded in some areas,' said M Mohapatra, director general IMD.
But that could change.
'During the last week of May we are expecting heat wave area to expand covering Haryana and parts of Uttar Pradesh,' Mohapatra added.
To be sure, the absence of a heat low, or a weak one, could still mean a poor monsoon.
'As forecast by us we are expecting an early onset of monsoon over Bay of Bengal and over Kerala around May 27 but onset cannot be linked to quantum of rain. After onset, how much rainfall will be received needs to be seen and monitored,' Mohapatra explained.
Monsoon rainfall during June to September, over the country is likely to be 'above normal' at 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%, IMD has said in its long range forecast.
'It appears that as forecast by IMD, the onset of monsoon will happen much earlier than normal. I do not see the temperatures in May impacting the onset. We cannot say anything about the quantum of rain right away,'added M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
The Southwest Monsoon further advanced over some more parts of south Arabian Sea, Maldives and Comorin area; South Bay of Bengal; some more parts of central Bay of Bengal and some parts of Northeast Bay of Bengal on Monday.
'Conditions are favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon over some more parts of south Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Maldives and Comorin area; some more parts of South Bay of Bengal; some more parts of central Bay of Bengal, and some more parts of northeast Bay of Bengal during next 2-3 days,' IMD forecast.
HT reported on May 9 that frequent, slow-moving western disturbances -- essentially, cyclones originating in the Mediterranean Sea and moving east -- in the first week of May have resulted in an unusually cool, rainy start to what is usually the peak summer month for northwest India. Western disturbances normally do not influence the Indian region in summer, they are mainly associated with winter rain.
IMD's extended range forecast shows widespread rainfall over Kerala and peninsular region between May 22 and 29.
On April 30, IMD forecast a higher number of heat wave days and above normal temperatures over most parts of the country in May.
'Temperatures are high above 46 degree C over some stations, but heat low has not formed yet. Temperatures may drop by 2 to 3 degrees C in next 3 to 4 days. As there are chances of isolated thunderstorm activities over Northwest India,' said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather.
Palawat added that while a heat low is an important component of a good monsoon, so far models do not indicate the monsoon will be impacted. 'It is needed for the initial push, however, other prevailing factors, such as active weather systems at the time can compensate for that.'
Data also reflects the unusual May being recorded in northwest India. For instance, Delhi is yet to record a single heatwave day this month. It saw four such days in April. It has also recorded 92.7mm in monthly rainfall — over three times the normal long-period average of 30.7mm. 'While April was fairly dry, May has been the opposite with short but intense spells a common occurrence, primarily due to western disturbances impacting one after the other in the form of a cyclonic circulation,' Palawat added, stating such activity is expected to continue this week in the region too.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Rain from today in Gurgaon? Western disturbance likely to the rescue
Gurgaon: The city reeled under intense heat on Saturday even as the maximum and minimum temperatures went down to 40.2 degrees Celsius and 29.5 degrees Celsius from the previous day's 42.9 and 30.7 degrees Celsius respectively. Hot winds and high humidity levels kept the mercury above 40 degrees Celsius over the week. However, India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast a drop in temperatures due to a fresh western disturbance coupled with an upper air cyclonic circulation over West Rajasthan, which is set to trigger pre-monsoon activity from June 15. The system is likely to bring thunderstorm, lightning, and gusty winds reaching speeds of 40-50 kmph in parts of the state on Sunday. "The combination of these weather systems is expected to gradually intensify over the next couple of days. By June 17, the pre-monsoon activity will peak, with widespread rainfall likely across Haryana, including in Gurgaon. While there will be no significant fall in the maximum temperature over the next 24 hours, mercury will fall gradually by 2-5 degrees Celsius during the subsequent days," a senior IMD official said. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 5 Books Warren Buffett Wants You to Read In 2025 Blinkist: Warren Buffett's Reading List Undo On Sunday, while skies may remain partly clear in the city, there are chances of isolated showers or thunderstorms. The minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to hover around 30 and 42 degrees Celsius, respectively. Meanwhile, IMD has advised residents to stay hydrated and avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. The weather department has also issued advisories warning against heatstroke and dehydration, urging citizens to watch out for signs of exhaustion and stay indoors or in cool surroundings. Follow more information on Air India plane crash in Ahmedabad here . Get real-time live updates on rescue operations and check full list of passengers onboard AI 171 .
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Many districts of Bihar likely to receive light rainfall today: IMD
Patna: Many districts of the state, including Patna, are likely to receive light rainfall from Sunday, with Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting isolated rainfall at one or two places in most of the southern districts and scattered rainfall at few places in the northern districts of the state. An orange alert for thunderstorms along with lightning activity has also been issued for 14 districts. These included Vaishali, Muzaffarpur, Sheohar, Sitamarhi, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Samastipur, Supaul, Araria, Kishanganj, Purnia, Katihar, Madhepura, and Saharsa. Wind in these regions is expected to blow at a speed of 50-60 km per hour. Thunderstorms with lightning can also occur in some of the southeastern districts. On the other hand, a yellow alert for a hot and humid day was issued for the southwestern districts. Despite the prediction of rainfall, the maximum temperature in most of the southern districts, including Patna, is likely to remain in the range of 38-40 degrees Celsius. No change in the maximum temperature is likely to occur in the next 24 hours. The temperature might fall thereafter. The minimum temperature is expected to remain the same for the next three to four days. Maximum temperatures in 16 districts crossed the mark of 40 degrees Celsius on Saturday. Buxar remained the hottest with the maximum temperature recorded at 43.4 degrees Celsius. The maximum temperature of Patna was recorded at 41.5 degrees Celsius. Banka and Agwanpur of Saharsa recorded the lowest minimum temperature of the state at 26.5 degrees Celsius. Patna: Many districts of the state, including Patna, are likely to receive light rainfall from Sunday, with Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting isolated rainfall at one or two places in most of the southern districts and scattered rainfall at few places in the northern districts of the state. An orange alert for thunderstorms along with lightning activity has also been issued for 14 districts. These included Vaishali, Muzaffarpur, Sheohar, Sitamarhi, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Samastipur, Supaul, Araria, Kishanganj, Purnia, Katihar, Madhepura, and Saharsa. Wind in these regions is expected to blow at a speed of 50-60 km per hour. Thunderstorms with lightning can also occur in some of the southeastern districts. On the other hand, a yellow alert for a hot and humid day was issued for the southwestern districts. Despite the prediction of rainfall, the maximum temperature in most of the southern districts, including Patna, is likely to remain in the range of 38-40 degrees Celsius. No change in the maximum temperature is likely to occur in the next 24 hours. The temperature might fall thereafter. The minimum temperature is expected to remain the same for the next three to four days. Maximum temperatures in 16 districts crossed the mark of 40 degrees Celsius on Saturday. Buxar remained the hottest with the maximum temperature recorded at 43.4 degrees Celsius. The maximum temperature of Patna was recorded at 41.5 degrees Celsius. Banka and Agwanpur of Saharsa recorded the lowest minimum temperature of the state at 26.5 degrees Celsius. Follow more information on Air India plane crash in Ahmedabad here . Get real-time live updates on rescue operations and check full list of passengers onboard AI 171 .
Mint
2 hours ago
- Mint
Karnataka Rains: Several areas flooded in Mangaluru as heavy showers lash city, IMD issues red alert for coastal region
Amid the heavy rainfall since Saturday afternoon disrupted daily life, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a red alert for coastal Karnataka, including Dakshina Kannada district, reported PTI. According to several reports, various low-lying areas of Mangaluru city have reported waterlogging. Also, roads beneath the Pumpwell flyover were submerged, causing severe traffic disruptions. Officials stated that a bus broke down at a flooded stretch, prompting passengers and locals to push it to the roadside. Among other details, streets on Car Street, Lower Bendur, Kottara and few other low-lying areas have reported heavy inundation and flooding. The Padil railway underpass and parts of car street also witnessed flooding, affecting vehicular movement. With relentless rainfall across coastal Karnataka and nearby districts, highway authorities have restricted the movement of two and three-wheelers along a crucial stretch of National Highway-66 between Suratkal and Nantoor Junction in Dakshina Kannada district. The highway administration invoked Section 31 of the Control of National Highways (Land and Traffic) Act, 2002. In the official notification, the administration stated that the move was taken to divert two- and three-wheelers onto designated service roads for the ongoing monsoon period, expected to last until September 2025. They also mentioned that continuous rain since last month has damaged portions of NH-66, rendering it unsafe for smaller vehicles. Also, maximum speed limit of 50 km/h has been enforced along the stretch to minimise accidents. All highway users have been advised to adhere strictly to the speed limit and obey traffic diversion signs during the monsoon. Earlier, IMD issued red alerts for the district over the past three days with little rain. However, Friday's downpour was particularly intense. Until the morning of 16 June, the red alert remains in effect across the Dakshina Kannada district and authorities warned of continued heavy rainfall.
