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In Texas region prone to catastrophic floods, questions grow about lack of warning

In Texas region prone to catastrophic floods, questions grow about lack of warning

Yahoo2 days ago
The forecast began to look ominous in Texas Hill County on Thursday afternoon.
A flood watch was issued by the National Weather Service at 1:18 p.m. that predicted up to 7 inches of isolated rainfall early Friday morning in South Central Texas, including Kerr County.
By the time the sun rose on the Fourth of July, less than 24 hours later, as much as 12 inches of rain had fallen in parts of the region while its residents were asleep, according to NWS radar estimates. The Guadalupe River gauge at the unincorporated community of Hunt, where the river forks, recorded a 22-foot rise in just two hours, said Bob Fogarty, meteorologist with the NWS Austin/San Antonio office. The gauge recorded a level of 29 ½ feet before becoming completely submerged and failing, Fogarty added.
[Camp Mystic, a haven for generations of Texas girls, becomes a center of tragedy]
At least 32 people were killed by the flooding. Dozens more remained missing as of Saturday morning, including 27 young girls from a Christian summer camp, according to the Kerr County sheriff's office.
The scale of the disaster — and the fact that major flooding is common in this part of Texas — has raised questions over whether more could have been done to warn people in the path of the flood waters.
Local and state officials were quick to point to weather forecasts that did not accurately predict the intensity of the rainfall. Meanwhile, some forecasters suggested that local officials and camp leadership should have activated more given the threats that were apparent.
'The heartbreaking catastrophe that occurred in Central Texas is a tragedy of the worst sort because it appears evacuations and other proactive measures could have been undertaken to reduce the risk of fatalities had the organizers of impacted camps and local officials heeded the warnings of the government and private weather sources, including AccuWeather,' AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter wrote in a statement Saturday morning.
Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, on Friday pointed to NWS forecasts from earlier in the week that projected up to 6 inches of rain.
'It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw,' Kidd said.
Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly echoed Kidd. When he was asked why camps along the Guadalupe were not evacuated, Kelly told reporters the county had 'no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what's happened here.'
However, warnings were issued about the potential for flash flooding hours before the waters reached their peak.
Rain began to fall around midnight, and the first flash flood warning was issued by the NWS at 1:14 a.m. Friday, Fogarty said. That warning should have triggered a response by local emergency management and local media to spread the word to those in harm's way, as well as the Emergency Alert System that broadcasts warnings to televisions and radios, Fogarty said.
All NWS flash flood warnings, including the one issued after midnight on Friday, trigger Wireless Emergency Alerts, the emergency push notification sent through cellphone towers to all wireless phones in the emergency area, Fogarty said. That warning was updated nine times throughout Friday, each of which triggered separate alerts through the Emergency Alert System and the Wireless Emergency Alerts, Fogarty said.
The most serious warning came at 4:03 a.m. when the NWS issued a flash flood emergency, warning of an 'extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation' and urging immediate evacuations to higher ground. Flash flood emergencies are issued using a mixture of rainfall data and on-the-ground reports: 'Someone has told us we need to get people out of here immediately or people are going to die,' Fogarty said.
The flooding came amid concerns about staffing levels at the NWS, after the Trump administration fired hundreds of meteorologists this year as part of Elon Musk's DOGE cuts. The NWS Austin/San Antonio office's warning coordination meteorologist announced in April that he was retiring early due to the funding cuts, leading to speculation that vacancies could have impacted forecasters' response.
The NWS forecasting offices were operating normally at the time of the disaster, said Greg Waller, service coordination hydrologist with the NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center in Fort Worth.
'We had adequate staffing. We had adequate technology,' Waller said. 'This was us doing our job to the best of our abilities.'
At least one independent meteorologist working in Texas echoed that statement, writing on his website that 'we have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that current staffing or budget issues within NOAA and the NWS played any role at all in this event.'
The timing of the flood may have been a complicating factor. The alerts came out during the start of the Fourth of July weekend, when RV parks, cabins and homes are filled with tourists who might not be as familiar with the flood risks or the habits of the water.
Between 2 and 7 a.m., the Guadalupe River in Kerrville rose from 1 to more than 34 feet in height, according to a flood gauge in the area. The flooding reached its peak at around 6:45 a.m. in Kerrville, hours after warnings were first issued, according to the gauge.
When the NWS issued its flash flood emergency, the river height was still under two feet, although it began to rise quickly shortly after the alert was issued. Major flooding on the river is considered anything above 20 feet, a level the gauge recorded a little after 6 a.m. on Friday.
Porter noted the danger of the nighttime flooding, when many people are asleep and slower to respond to warnings.
Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice told reporters Friday that the suddenness and intensity of the flood caught city officials flat-footed.
"This happened very quickly over a very short amount of time that could not be predicted," Rice said. "This is not like a tornado where you can have a siren. This is not a hurricane where you're planning weeks in advance. It hit hard and things like this happen in a very strategic, very isolated area and when those two things converge you have what happened today."
Waller noted the high risk of flooding in the area.
'In my career, this is our worst case scenario that we brief all of our new forecasters on,' Waller said.
The terrain in the area makes it so precipitation forecasts off by just 20 miles could affect entirely different river basins, Waller said.
Given the river's history, Porter said reports of survivors being awoken by rapidly rising water and forced to evacuate in the middle of the emergency instead of much earlier after the warnings were first issued were 'extremely concerning.'
The region has experienced catastrophic flooding before, including the 2015 Wimberley flood that left 13 people dead, as well as major floods in 2007 and 2002. A July 1987 flood of the Guadalupe River devastated Kerrville and other communities along the waterway.
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'The internet can be a strange place': Ted Cruz confronts 'weather modification' conspiracy theories

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Timeline shows when emergency alerts warned of Texas flood disaster
Timeline shows when emergency alerts warned of Texas flood disaster

CBS News

timean hour ago

  • CBS News

Timeline shows when emergency alerts warned of Texas flood disaster

The extreme rainfall and flash flooding that swept through central Texas in the early morning hours of July 4 left local officials and residents stunned by its sudden and deadly ferocity. At least 90 people were killed, including more than two dozen campers and counselors at Camp Mystic, along the banks of the Guadalupe River in Kerr County. Many local residents say they did not receive any emergency alerts on their phones or did not understand the severity of the warnings they saw. CBS News analysis shows there were 22 warnings sent by the National Weather Service for Kerr County and the Kerrville area, with escalating language about the urgency of the situation. There were no alerts sent by local government officials in Kerr County or neighboring Bandera County, to its south; they were reliant on National Weather Service alerts. 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Thursday, July 3 The National Weather Service issued several flood watches for counties in central Texas on Thursday, July 3, warning of the possibility of rain and flash flooding through Friday, but these were not emergency alerts. 11:41 p.m., Bandera County — NWS sends a warning about potentially "life threatening" flash flooding of creeks and streams for residents of central Bandera County, the neighboring county to the south of Kerr County and Camp Mystic. The message includes some standard NWS flash flooding language: "Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route." Friday, July 4 1:14 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — This message, the first one for Kerr County, included some of the same standard NWS flash flooding language as the warning sent to Bandera about an hour and a half before. 1:53 a.m., Bandera County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier first warning to Bandera County (but not Kerr). 3:35 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to the two counties, but in the warning language it adds: "It is important to know where you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks." 4:03 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — This NWS message, covering the area that includes Camp Mystic, repeats much of the earlier message but is the first to add this more urgent wording: "This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!" and "Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order." 4:03 a.m. — The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio issues a Flash Flood Emergency, stating: "At 403 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain. Numerous low water crossings as well as the Guadalupe River at Hunt are flooding. Between 4 and 10 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 4 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring." 5:34 a.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County, which includes Camp Mystic. "This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for the Guadalupe River from Hunt through Kerrvile and Center Point. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!" and "Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation." 6:06 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to both counties. It reads in part: "Local law enforcement reported numerous low water crossings flooded and major flooding occurring along the Guadalupe River with rescues taking place. Between 5 and 10 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for South-central Kerr County, including Hunt. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!" 6:27 a.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County, saying "This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY" and "SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!" The Guadalupe River reached its peak level of about 36 feet at around 7 a.m. Friday, July 4. 7:24 a.m., Kerr and Kendall Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County and neighboring Kendall County, to the east. It reads in part: "A large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for THE GUADALUPE RIVER FROM CENTER POINT TO SISTERDALE. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!" 8:47 a.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County. 9:04 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to these two counties. 9:37 a.m., Kerr and Real Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County and adds Real County, its neighbor to the southwest. 10:06 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning. 10:24 a.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning. 10:39 a.m., Bandera and Real Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Bandera County and Real County, but not Kerr. 11:28 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County and Bandera County. 11:38 a.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County with new, more pressing language: "a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for the Guadalupe River from Hunt through Kerrvile and Center Point. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!" 12:07 p.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County. 1:20 p.m., Kerr and Bandera Counties — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County and Bandera County. 1:24 p.m., Kerr and Kendall Counties — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County and Kendall County. 2:03 p.m., Kerr and Bandera Counties — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County and Bandera County. 2:12 p.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County. 3:23 p.m., Kerr and Kendall Counties — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County and Kendall County. 3:53 p.m., Kerr and Bandera Counties — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County and Bandera County. 3:56 p.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County.

Debate erupts over role job cuts played in weather forecasts ahead of deadly Texas floods
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Debate erupts over role job cuts played in weather forecasts ahead of deadly Texas floods

WASHINGTON (AP) — Former federal officials and outside experts have warned for months that President Donald Trump's deep staffing cuts to the National Weather Service could endanger lives. After torrential rains and flash flooding struck Friday in the Texas Hill Country , the weather service came under fire from local officials who criticized what they described as inadequate forecasts, though most in the Republican-controlled state stopped sort of blaming Trump's cuts. Democrats, meanwhile, wasted little time in linking the staff reductions to the disaster, which is being blamed for the deaths of at least 80 people, including more than two dozen girls and counselors attending a summer camp on the banks of the Guadalupe River. The NWS office responsible for that region had five staffers on duty as thunderstorms formed over Texas Thursday evening, the usual number for an overnight shift when severe weather is expected. Current and former NWS officials defended the agency, pointing to urgent flash flood warnings issued in the pre-dawn hours before the river rose. 'This was an exceptional service to come out first with the catastrophic flash flood warning and this shows the awareness of the meteorologists on shift at the NWS office,' said Brian LaMarre, who retired at the end of April as the meteorologist-in-charge of the NWS forecast office in Tampa, Florida. ″There is always the challenge of pinpointing extreme values, however, the fact the catastrophic warning was issued first showed the level of urgency.' Questions linger about level of coordination Questions remain, however, about the level of coordination and communication between NWS and local officials on the night of the disaster. The Trump administration has cut hundreds of jobs at NWS , with staffing down by at least 20% at nearly half of the 122 NWS field offices nationally and at least a half dozen no longer staffed 24 hours a day. Hundreds more experienced forecasters and senior managers were encouraged to retire early. The White House also has proposed slashing its parent agency's budget by 27% and eliminating federal research centers focused on studying the world's weather, climate and oceans. The website for the NWS office for Austin/San Antonio , which covers the region that includes hard-hit Kerr County, shows six of 27 positions are listed as vacant. The vacancies include a key manager responsible for issuing warnings and coordinating with local emergency management officials. An online resume for the employee who last held the job showed he left in April after more than 17 years, shortly after mass emails sent to employees urging them to retire early or face potential layoffs. Democrats on Monday pressed the Trump administration for details about the cuts. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer demanded that the administration conduct an inquiry into whether staffing shortages contributed to 'the catastrophic loss of life' in Texas. Meanwhile, Trump said the job eliminations did not hamper any weather forecasting. The raging waters, he said Sunday, were 'a thing that happened in seconds. No one expected it. Nobody saw it.' Former officials warn that job cuts could hamper future forecasts Former federal officials and experts have said Trump's indiscriminate job reductions at NWS and other weather-related agencies will result in brain drain that imperils the federal government's ability to issue timely and accurate forecasts. Such predictions can save lives, particularly for those in the path of quick-moving storms. 'This situation is getting to the point where something could break,' said Louis Uccellini, a meteorologist who served as NWS director under three presidents, including during Trump's first term. 'The people are being tired out, working through the night and then being there during the day because the next shift is short staffed. Anything like that could create a situation in which important elements of forecasts and warnings are missed.' After returning to office in January, Trump issued a series of executive orders empowering the Department of Government Efficiency, initially led by mega-billionaire Elon Musk, to enact sweeping staff reductions and cancel contracts at federal agencies, bypassing significant Congressional oversight. Though Musk has now departed Washington and had a very public falling out with Trump , DOGE staffers he hired and the cuts he sought have largely remained, upending the lives of tens of thousands of federal employees. Cuts resulted from Republican effort to privatize duties of weather agencies The cuts follow a decade-long Republican effort to dismantle and privatize many of the duties of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the agency within the Commerce Department that includes the NWS. The reductions have come as Trump has handed top public posts to officials with ties to private companies that stand to profit from hobbling the taxpayer-funded system for predicting the weather. Project 2025, the conservative governing blueprint that Trump distanced himself from during the 2024 campaign but that he has broadly moved to enact once in office, calls for dismantling NOAA and further commercializing the weather service. Chronic staffing shortages have led a handful of offices to curtail the frequency of regional forecasts and weather balloon launches needed to collect atmospheric data. In April, the weather service abruptly ended translations of its forecasts and emergency alerts into languages other than English, including Spanish. The service was soon reinstated after public outcry. NOAA's main satellite operations center briefly appeared earlier this year on a list of surplus government real estate set to be sold. Trump's proposed budget also seeks to shutter key facilities for tracking climate change. The proposed cuts include the observatory atop the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii that for decades has documented the steady rise in plant-warming carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere from burning fossil fuels. On June 25, NOAA abruptly announced that the U.S. Department of Defense would no longer process or transmit data from three weather satellites experts said are crucial to accurately predicting the path and strength of hurricanes at sea . 'Removing data from the defense satellite is similar to removing another piece to the public safety puzzle for hurricane intensity forecasting,' said LaMarre, now a private consultant. 'The more pieces removed, the less clear the picture becomes which can reduce the quality of life-saving warnings.' Trump officials say they didn't fire meteorologists At a pair of Congressional hearings last month, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called it 'fake news' that the Trump administration had axed any meteorologists, despite detailed reporting from The Associated Press and other media organizations that chronicled the layoffs. 'We are fully staffed with forecasters and scientists,' Lutnick said June 4 before a Senate appropriations subcommittee. 'Under no circumstances am I going to let public safety or public forecasting be touched.' Despite a broad freeze on federal hiring directed by Trump, NOAA announced last month it would seek to fill more than 100 'mission-critical field positions,' as well as plug holes at some regional weather offices by reassigning staff. Those positions have not yet been publicly posted, though a NOAA spokesperson said Sunday they would be soon. Asked by AP how the NWS could simultaneously be fully staffed and still advertise 'mission critical positions' as open, Commerce spokesperson Kristen Eichamer said the 'National Hurricane Center is fully staffed to meet this season's demand, and any recruitment efforts are simply meant to deepen our talent pool.' 'The secretary is committed to providing Americans with the most accurate, up-to-date weather data by ensuring the National Weather Service is fully equipped with the personnel and technology it needs,' Eichamer said. 'For the first time, we are integrating technology that's more accurate and agile than ever before to achieve this goal, and with it the NWS is poised to deliver critical weather information to Americans.' Uccellini and the four prior NWS directors who served under Democratic and Republican presidents criticized the Trump cuts in an open letter issued in May; they said the administration's actions resulted in the departures of about 550 employees — an overall reduction of more than 10 percent. 'NWS staff will have an impossible task to continue its current level of services,' they wrote. 'Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life. We know that's a nightmare shared by those on the forecasting front lines – and by the people who depend on their efforts.' NOAA's budget for fiscal year 2024 was just under $6.4 billion, of which less than $1.4 billion went to NWS. Experts worry about forecasts for hurricanes While experts say it would be illegal for Trump to eliminate NOAA without Congressional approval, some former federal officials worry the cuts could result in a patchwork system where taxpayers finance the operation of satellites and collection of atmospheric data but are left to pay private services that would issue forecasts and severe weather warnings. That arrangement, critics say, could lead to delays or missed emergency alerts that, in turn, could result in avoidable deaths. D. James Baker, who served as NOAA's administrator during the Clinton administration, questioned whether private forecasting companies would provide the public with services that don't generate profits. 'Would they be interested in serving small communities in Maine, let's say?' Baker asked. 'Is there a business model that gets data to all citizens that need it? Will companies take on legal risks, share information with disaster management agencies, be held accountable as government agencies are? Simply cutting NOAA without identifying how the forecasts will continue to be provided is dangerous.' Though the National Hurricane Center in Miami has been largely spared staff reductions like those at regional NWS offices, some professionals who depend on federal forecasts and data greeted the June start of the tropical weather season with profound worry. In an unusual broadcast on June 3, longtime South Florida TV meteorologist John Morales warned his viewers that the Trump administration cuts meant he might not be able to provide as accurate forecasts for hurricanes as he had in years past. He cited staffing shortfalls of between 20% and 40% at NWS offices from Tampa to Key West and urged his NBC 6 audience in greater Miami to call their congressional representatives. 'What we are starting to see is that the quality of the forecasts is becoming degraded,' Morales said. 'And we may not know exactly how strong a hurricane is before it reaches the coastline.' ___ Contact AP's global investigative team at Investigative@ or Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page .

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