Here's why Hurricane Erick is quickly strengthening into dangerous storm
This type of rapid intensification has become more common in a warmer climate, especially in the Atlantic and near the United States, which is not where Erick is now, scientists said. Last year, there were there 34 incidents of rapid intensification — when a storm gains at least 35 mph in 24 hours — which is about twice as many as average and causes problems with forecasting, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Erick, an otherwise run-of-the-mill hurricane that's strong but not unusual, gained 50 mph in just 18 hours and was still powering up as it neared the coast.
Because of where it's heading — near Acapulco — and it's rapid intensification, Erick brings back bad memories of deadly Otis, which seemed to come from out of nowhere to smack Mexico with a top-of-the-scale Category 5 hurricane in 2023. But Erick is no Otis, especially because of their timing. Erick is an early-season storm and Otis hit in October.
Forming in October, Otis grew stronger by churning up deeper warmer water because it was later in the year. Erick is early in the year and the deep water it would churn up is cooler and doesn't fuel rapid intensification. Even so, the surface water is plenty hot enough, said MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel.
All the ingredients are otherwise perfect for Erick's power-up, said University at Albany atmospheric scientist Kristen Corbosiero. Dry air often stops rapid intensification, but Erick hasn't run into dry air and the atmosphere around it is extremely moist, she said. It's got a good stormy eye forming and has what would be the ideal shape of a strengthening storm, she said.
The water around Erick is warm enough for a storm to form and power up quickly, but it's not warmer than normal for this time of year, so that's not odd, Corbosiero said. However, it's warm enough that it is 'a pretty safe bet″ that it will continue to gain strength until it gets close to land, Emanuel said.
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Studies have linked human-caused climate change in general to more bouts of rapid intensification, as well as wetter and slower storms, Corbosiero said. But it would take more study, usually after the storm hits, to find any potential link between global warming and Erick in particular, if there is one, she said.
Aside from its quick powering up, Erick 'doesn't seem to be particularly unusual,' Corbosiero said.
The only thing that's unusual so far is that this is the fifth eastern Pacific storm a month into the season there, which is a little more active than normal, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy. And it's likely that when Erick hits, it will be the strongest storm to make landfall in that part of Mexico this early in the season, he said.
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