Breakingviews - Beijing has more at stake in Iran besides just oil
HONG KONG, June 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Beijing has far more at stake in Iran besides just oil. China has not only benefited from importing heavily discounted Iranian crude, it has inched up its strategic infrastructure investments into the country since the duo signed a $400 billion pact in 2021. If the regime in Tehran is severely weakened or changes, China also will lose a key diplomatic lever in the Middle East.
Despite Washington's efforts to use sanctions to curb oil exports from Iran, it has become an increasingly important supplier to China. Crude shipments to the People's Republic from Malaysia, a major trans-shipment hub, have tripled to 70 million tonnes last year from 2021, according to data from the Chinese Customs – third after Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Moreover, Iran's strategic location makes it a crucial cog in President Xi Jinping's signature Belt and Road policy to enhance his country's physical and economic connectivity with the world. As of 2023, China accounted for 3% of Iran's $6 billion worth of foreign direct investments.
That pales in comparison to, say, Russia's 27% contribution, but China is ramping up its support in other ways: Iran has turned to the People's Republic for "thousands of tons of ballistic-missile ingredients", for instance, to build its military prowess, the Wall Street Journal reported, opens new tab in June, citing sources. The trio also conducts regular joint naval drills together.
The escalating conflict threatens to undermine Beijing's nascent ambitions in Gulf politics too. Just two years ago, Chinese diplomats hailed a 'new paradigm, opens new tab' for resolving friction in the Middle East after they brokered a deal to restore diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
War also throws up a fresh test of China's diplomatic ties further afield too. Iran joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in 2023. However, India, a founding member, on Saturday issued a rare public rebuttal, opens new tab of the SCO's statement denouncing Israel's attacks, underscoring a potential rift between Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has fostered closer ties with Israel.
The danger for China is this could be a moment that ultimately erodes its ambition to project power in the region and one that gives rise to rival infrastructure projects, such as the ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, aimed at diluting Beijing's influence. For now, it appears the reshaping of the Middle East may not work in its favour.
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The Independent
33 minutes ago
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What to know about bunker-buster bombs and Iran's Fordo nuclear facility
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Reuters
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Daily Mail
39 minutes ago
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Trump issues dire warning to Iranians before leaving G7 early
President Donald Trump gave a terrifying warning to Iranians to leave Tehran amid Israel's bombings, as the White House announced he would depart the G7 Summit in Canada a day early to deal with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. 'Well, I have to be back, very important,' he told reporters as he posed for the G7's family photo Monday evening. 'I just want to thank our great host, Canada.' He will depart Kananaskis, Canada Monday night and is expected to arrive back in Washington, D.C. early Tuesday morning, with Fox News reporting that Trump had instructed the National Security Council to assemble in the White House's Situation Room. 'You probably see what I see and I have to be back as soon as I can,' Trump continued. 'I'm going to have dinner with these wonderful leaders and then I get on a plane, I have to be back early.' Prior to the photo-op, Trump took to Truth Social, frightfully instructing those living in Tehran - the Iranian capital - to get out. 'Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!' the U.S. president wrote in a Truth Social post, as he was attending the G7 Summit in Kananaskis, Canada on Monday. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Fox News Monday night that the U.S. military is prepared in the region, though left the door open for the Israeli-Iranian conflict to end diplomatically, as the president has called for. 'We are postured defensively in the region to be strong in pursuit of a peace deal,' Hegseth said. 'We're vigilant, prepared, and committed to defending our people and our assets.' French President Emmanuel Macron, one of the G7 leaders attending the summit in Canada, said that Trump's exit may be due to a ceasefire between Israel and Iran being on the table. 'There is indeed an offer to meet and exchange. An offer was made especially to get a ceasefire and to then kickstart broader discussion,' he said, according to Reuters. In an X post she added that Trump 'had a great day at the G7, even signing a major trade deal with the United Kingdom and Prime Minister Keir Starmer.' 'Much was accomplished, but because of what's going on in the Middle East, President Trump will be leaving tonight after dinner with Heads of State,' Leavitt said. That means Trump will miss a planned face-to-face meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, where the war with Russia was to be discussed. He was also scheduled to have a bilateral meeting with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, where immigration and trade would have been on the table. At the end of the day, he was expected to hold a press conference. 'I wish I could stay for tomorrow, but they understand this, it's big stuff,' Trump said at the family photo gathering. He then joked, 'Do you have questions for anybody else?' Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney chimed in saying that the leaders 'had a bit more work to do, so we'll go do it over dinner.' 'I'm very grateful for the president's presence and I fully understand why he must return,' Carney added. In his Truth Social post, Trump had pushed again that the Iranian regime should have made a nuclear deal with him. 'Iran should have signed the "deal" I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again!' Trump wrote. Ahead of sending out the Truth Social post, Trump had been meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. At the top of their meeting, Trump expressed that he believed a Iranian nuclear deal could still be signed. 'Israel is doing very well, as you probably know. And I gave Iran 60 days, and they said, well, at the 61st you saw what happened. Day 61. So I'm in constant touch. And as I've been saying, I think a deal will be signed, or something will happen, but a deal will be signed. And I think Iran is foolish not to sign,' Trump said. Asked if he would travel to the Middle East for any peace talks, Trump responded: 'I think we're doing pretty well. We're talking. We have a thing called the telephone.' He visited the Middle East in mid-May, with state visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Earlier Monday, Trump had expressed a similarly positive outlook on getting an Iran nuclear deal worked out. 'Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal, just like I got India and Pakistan to make, in that case by using TRADE with the United States to bring reason, cohesion, and sanity into the talks with two excellent leaders who were able to quickly make a decision and STOP!' he posted to Truth Social Monday morning. On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu started bombing Iran in an attempt to wipe out the Islamic Republic's nuclear program once and for all. The attacks have continued every night since. The bombings have killed a number of Iran's military commanders and scientists involved in the state's nuclear program. The Irianians have retaliated, with several rockets hitting Tel Aviv and other populated areas. Ahead of Israel's assault, Trump and the Amerians had been working to achieve a fresh nuclear deal, after the Republican pulled out of the Obama-era deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in May of 2018. Trump now says he had given the Iranians a '60 day ultimatum' to make a deal, with Israel's attacks starting on day 61. A planned meeting in Oman between the Americans and Iranians on Sunday was scrapped. On Monday, Netanyahu, in an interview with ABC News, refused to rule out assassinating Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, arguing that doing so would 'end the conflict.' 'It's not going to escalate the conflict, it's going to end the conflict,' the Israeli leader said. The IDF for the first time also ordered evacuation orders covering a large part of Tehran Monday afternoon. As Trump made his warning on Truth Social, Iranian state meeting was reporting that explosions were being heard in Tehran. Earlier Monday, Iran's state broadcaster was bombed while on-air. At home, Trump is receiving criticism from some parts of his MAGA coalition, with Tucker Carlson saying the president is 'complicit' in Israel's strikes on Iran. Asked about Carlson's comments during his meeting with Starmer, Trump needled the former Fox News host. 'I don't know what Tucker Carlson is saying. Let him go get a television network and say it so people listen,' Trump smarted.
